What a fine mess we are in

TURKEY - Report 12 Dec 2021 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

In two recent briefs (A First Take On An Unprecedented Experiment, November 21, 2021, and This Time Is Different, November 28), we have laid out our thoughts on Ankara’s so-called New Economic Model, and speculated on a few near-term scenarios -- namely, the “good” (it works), the “most likely” (it does not, but a full- blown financial crisis is avoided) and the “worst-case” (the current situation morphs into a full-blown crisis) scenarios.

We broadly stick to the analyses therein, and do not have a lot to add to what we’ve already said. Then again, we thought it would be useful to provide a quick update on recent developments, including some thoughts on Thursday’s upcoming CBRT/MPC meeting.

Now read on...

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