What a mess...

TURKEY - Report 04 Sep 2022 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

The process of unraveling in AKP picked up a notch, as ex-gladio and fugitive mafia leader Sedat Peker returned to the social media limelight with ground-breaking bribery revelations. Why the UAE permitted him to tweet again is a question with important political implications, which we cover in the first politics essay.

We then address three hot topics among pro-opposition pundits, which may or may have not reached the Western press yet. These are early elections, rising AKP poll ratings and complacency among opposition ranks. We debunk all three claims, sticking to our base-case scenario of Erdogan and his AKP-MHP alliance dropping further in the polls in the winter months.

Both the manufacturing PMI and Economic Confidence Index improved somewhat in August, but we think this won’t last, and the economy should slow noticeably from Q3 onward.

Now read on...

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