What are the indications from the GDP result in 2017?

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 05 Mar 2018 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

After two years of contraction, GDP grew by 1% in 2017. Although this expansion was well dispersed to many sectors, growth in the fourth quarter was the lowest of 2017, and the pace of recovery has been the slowest of any of the recessions dated by CODACE (Graph 1). A year after the recession ended, GDP was only 2.2% above the level in the fourth quarter of 2016, in comparison with 4% in the same time span in 1998, the slowest previous recovery. Our forecast indicate that gradual recovery will continue in 2018, with GDP closing the year about 3% higher than at the start of the year.

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