What are the signs regarding “true” growth in 2018?

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 19 Mar 2018 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

Our projection for economic growth of 3% in 2018 implicitly rests on a significant acceleration of the quarterly GDP growth rates – from 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2017 to 1.1% per quarter this year. The latest data indicate that GDP only expanded by 0.5% in the first three months of 2018, posing a challenge to achieving 3% growth this year. We have decided to wait for a new harvest of data to revise our projection for 2018, but the risk is that GDP growth will fall short of 3%.

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