What Can Be Expected for Household Consumption

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 01 Aug 2016 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

The signs that the recession is reaching the end are becoming clearer. Our leading indicator, which combines indicators from the international and domestic economies, points to an end in the third quarter this year. The unanimous recovery of the confidence indicators produced by FGV strengthens this forecast. But unlike what happened after the recession in 2008-2009, the recovery of consumption will be very slow, which increases our skepticism regarding the pace of recovery in ensuing quarters.

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