What Does A “Good” Chinese Transition Look Like?

CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 24 Jun 2014 by Michael Pettis
Executive Summary Any plausible definition of an orderly Chinese rebalancing during President Xi Jinping’s administration must include much lower GDP growth for many years. How quickly Beijing is able to rein in credit growth is the main variable determining whether or not the adjustment will be orderly and how severe it will be over the longer term.If Beijing manages to rein in credit growth well before the country reaches debt capacity constraints, the key variable determining sustainable economic growth is likely to be the pace of household income growth, which must grow much faster than...

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