What goes around, comes around (with interest)

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 27 May 2025 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

The Bimonthly Revenue and Expenditure Report indicates that the National Treasury’s financing need in 2025 will reach BRL 76 billion, BRL 47 billion above the amount originally projected in the Annual Budget Law (LOA).

Despite official rhetoric, it is clear that the government’s goal is merely to meet the lower bound of the primary balance target—bearing in mind that even this lower limit excludes BRL 45 billion in expenditures. Fiscal adjustment remains heavily reliant on increasing revenue, with no progress on structural measures to curb expenditure growth.

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