What happens after new elections?

TURKEY - In Brief 14 Aug 2015 by Atilla Yesilada

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Once again I take the stage to answer questions from a reader, who shall --as has now become custom--remain unanimous. I do love to field questions from you, but urge all of you who have my private e-mail to use this platform which reduces my workload greatly and facilitates information sharing. Now, let’s get back to the questions: Q: What happens if the election is run again and no single party government is elected again? A: Current polls suggest that AKP may gain up to 10 more seats, but is very likely to fall short of an absolute majority. Moreover it is useful to recall that in the run-up to last general elections AKP lost 4 percentage points during the election campaign. If the economy tanks, or terror becomes unmanageable, AKP may even underperform vis-a-vis 7th of June. My current subjective estimate of support rates for the major parties is as follows: AKP: 43% CHP: 26% MHP: 15% HDP: 11% I must warn you again that the Turkish voter is very fickle, while up to 18% is reported to be undecided at this time. If no party wins an absolute majority, my base case scenario would be a re-run of the AKP-CHP coalition attempt, with AKP-MHP deserving the second place. Yet, much will depend on the tone of the campaign and the events that may transpire in the interim such as major acts of terror. These will decide whether forming a coalition would be easy or hard. I expect several terror acts and a very fractious campaign, thus taxing negotiations in December. Q: Do you think this decision by Davutoglu was pressurized by Erdogan or was it just intrinsic differences in key areas such as Syria, Pensions etc that were outstanding. In as much as Erdogan and Davutoglu steadfastl...