​What now?

TURKEY - In Brief 02 Apr 2019 by Atilla Yesilada
Assuming Istanbul stays in CHP hands, I now declare CHP-IYIP alliance the victor of the local elections.This declaration is not about my perception of the result, but how I think the rank and file of AKP would read it.As I have said several times before, Turkish politics is about cronyism and patronage.On Monday, AKP lost all the real estate except Bursa which generate the patronage. According to Turkish news flow, Erdogan did draw one lesson from the election, which is that he needs to improve the economy, if he wishes to stay president beyond the end of his term in 2023. This is easy to see, but exactly what he will do to achieve this objective is very unclear. I pronounce that the choice is not entirely up to Erdogan any longer and we need to wait for 8 April to reach a firm conclusion. These caveats being made, habit forces me to go on a limb and share my preliminary predictions with you about the course he will take. It is important to understand that AKP now desperately needs MHP support to stay in power, or win any election. While Bahceli’s loyalty seems to come free of charge, his constituency will probably resist a strict austerity program and calling IMF in the first instance. This is the first and penultimate constraint on Erdogan’s choice of policy path. Secondly, if Davutoglu or Babacan, or any other stealthy contender in AKP is going to throw his/her hat into the ring, this is the best time. I would speculate that someone will challenge Erdogan, because despite retaining 51.5% popular vote, the professional cadre in AKP has probably realized that Erdogan’s combative and divisive politics is a dead end for their future, standing ready to back an alternativ...

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