Politics: What we are yet to learn

MEXICO - Report 25 Jun 2018 by Guillermo Valdes and Esteban Manteca

Save some totally unexpected development or a massive failure of all polling, it is almost certain that Andrés Manuel López Obrador will win the presidential election. The main uncertainty at this point involves the eventual margin of victory, with polling aggregators showing the three-time presidential candidate with support ranging between 43 and 56 percent and his two major rivals competing for a distant second-place finish.

But while it is all but certain AMLO will be the country’s next president, the next chapter in Mexican political life hinges greatly on his eventual margin of victory. If he emerges with anything over half of the vote – something no one has achieved in 24 years – he can claim a political mandate. Furthermore, even if his coalition falls short of an outright majority in Congress, he may be able to assemble one, at least initially, because the parties that opposed López Obrador’s candidacy appear rife with infighting and mutual recriminations over their campaign shortcomings, along with a continuing stream of desertions toward the AMLO camp.

But while he may command the first congressional majority since 1994, there are many reasons to hope a López Obrador win is unlikely to mark a return to the absolute "presidentialista" control over all branches that the PRI exercised throughout most of the 20th century. One bulwark will consist of the judicial branch and the greatly increased number of autonomous governing and regulatory bodies, including the central bank.

Even in a worst-case scenario involving an implosion of opposition camps it seems unimaginable that AMLO would be able to cobble together the two-thirds congressional majority needed to amend the constitution and roll back the structural reforms of recent years. And while the Morena camp is poised to win between four and seven of the gubernatorial contests on the ballot July 1, that would still leave AMLO with no more than six of the 17 state governments needed to win ratification of new changes to the country’s Magna Carta.

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