When The Going Gets Tougher

COLOMBIA - Report 29 Aug 2013 by Veronica Navas and Andrés Escobar Arango
Executive Summary The government and Central Bank have both cut their 2013 GDP growth forecasts – as other Latin American countries have done, given the situation up north. Even though we had initially (in July) lowered our forecast too, from 4.3% to 4%, now we’re lowering it again, to 3.6%, as robust mining and construction growth may be unable to compensate for underperforming growth in the manufacturing and financial sectors. Executing the austere proposed 2014 budget will be challenging, since the government is facing an impossible trilogy: falling tax revenue, FARC peace talks and risi...

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