Why Do We Maintain Our 0.5% Projection for Growth in 2017?

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 13 Mar 2017 by Affonso Pastore, Cristina Pinotti, Marcelo Gazzano and Caio Carbone

For some time now we’ve insisted that economic recovery this year will be slow, and in addition to this the GDP contraction in the fourth quarter of 2016 was greater than projected. With this, the negative carry-over to 2017 is slightly more than previously projected, reaching -1.1%. Were it not for the combination of the upward revision of GDP in the first quarter of 2017 with positive effects of some isolated factors, we would have to reduce our growth projection of 0.5% in 2017. The set of these factors, however, leads us to maintain the growth projection of 0.5%, a decision we detail in this note.

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