​Wildfire Damage, Political Fallout and CBRT MPC preview

TURKEY - In Brief 09 Aug 2021 by Atilla Yesilada

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Turkey’s wildfires tapered off, thanks to cooler weather, but the menace is still with us, as 12 fires in 5 provinces are still in progress. I focus on economic damage to start with, but there is little to change my previous assessment. So far, I received concrete information that reported damage in Manavgat, Antalya, one of the worst hit districts from fires, is only TL1 bn, or $115 mn.According to daily Hurriyet columnist Mr. Noyan Dogan, 600K farmers carry hazard insurance in the affected regions, of whom only 556 filed claims thus far. On the other hand, CHP Member of Parliament (Antalya) Mr. Cetin Osman Budak estimates a total loss of TL300 bn ($35 bn at dollar/TL 8.60), of which TL200 bn is the implicit value of lost forested land, thus not to be counted as part of GDP.I think from a wealth accounting perspective his argument has some merit, but few of the losses in his list will make it to the next GDP report. For the curious, the link to his views in Turkish is here. https://www.enpolitik.com/guncel/iste-orman-yanginlarinin-turkiye-ye-faturasi-h330787.html Moving to tourism, Daily SABAH, quoting leading German tourist agencies, reports no significant reservation cancellations this far, but curious travelers checking the fire reports. On the other hand, dissident website haberdar.com, banned in Turkey, reports from South Aegean tourism associations, which claim unanimously that August reservations have dried up in an instant. Compared to my previous Market Brief, I’m slightly more pessimistic about August tourism revenues. Exacerbating my pessimism is the raging Covid-19 epidemic, wherein positive case/test ratio has hovered around 10% over the last few days. Ph...