Will China step again on the gas?

CHINA FINANCIAL - Report 30 Jul 2018 by Michael Pettis

Special points to highlight in this issue:

• Over the past three months a scandal has emerged at Huarong Asset Management which may turn out to have substantial implications for the Chinese economy and for asset liquidation abroad. Huarong is the largest of the four AMCs created in 1999, and has long been considered the most aggressive player in an already-questionable market.
• We are getting very mixed signals about the recent slowdown in certain sectors of the Chinese economy, the real extent of economic activity, and the political impacts of this slowdown. While I continue to hope and expect a substantial continued deceleration in economic activity, and especially debt, in the second half of 2018, it is too early to know one way or the other. As Beijing attempts to tighten its grip on credit growth, it will take at least another month or two of data before we have a sense of how perturbed the leadership has been by recent economic and political events.

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