Will China's economy and technology surpass the U.S.?
There is a growing view that China’s economy and technology will soon surpass that of the U.S. Kyle Chan, a researcher at Princeton University, outlined this argument in a New York Times op-ed:
“For years, theorists have posited the onset of a 'Chinese century': a world in which China finally harnesses its vast economic and technological potential to surpass the United States and reorient global power around a pole that runs through Beijing. That century may already have dawned, and when historians look back they may very well pinpoint the early months of President Trump’s second term as the watershed moment when China pulled away and left the United States behind.” (NYT, May 19, 2025).
Chan lists China’s technological achievements, including the development of drugs, EVs, the installation of industrial robots, and a self-reliant supply chain driven by companies such as Huawei. However, I disagree. I would argue that China’s technological gains have been achieved at great cost and will be insufficient to replace the country’s decades-long reliance on debt-fueled infrastructure and property investment, paid for not out of recurring tax revenue but with debt. New technology, which in some cases has been impressive, is insufficient to drive total growth economic growth. China’s weakness will affect its ability to impose power globally and negotiate with the U.S.
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