Will GDP growth surprise on the upside?

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 21 Aug 2014 by Romeo Bernardo
We agree with most analysts' expectations that 2Q14 GDP growth will exceed the 5.7% 1Q14 growth rate. It is after all difficult to ignore the surprisingly strong numbers indicating robust economic activity during the period, with even the agricultural sector posting higher gains. Oddly for us, the negative effects of Manila's truck ban on production are not evident in the numbers we've seen so far, with corporates releasing upbeat sales reports and even exports rebounding in June. In fact, government economists are sounding quite optimistic with the DoF's Chief Economist predicting 2Q14 GDP to have returned to 7% growth. If true, that would prompt an upgrade of our own full year 5.8% forecast. Official 2Q14 GDP performance will be released next week (Aug. 28).

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