Will President Rodrigo Duterte lift the Enhanced Community Quarantine (ECQ) on April 30?

PHILIPPINES - In Brief 21 Apr 2020 by Romeo Bernardo

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With just a little over a week to go, the debate in policy circles has turned fiercer. It is not difficult to detect the bias within government for another extension, especially after resigned socio-economic planning secretary Ernesto Pernia revealed that his was a “dissonant voice” in the Duterte cabinet. Mr. Pernia had argued against continuing the ECQ in its present form and had proposed modifications to allow certain activities, including government’s infrastructure program and manufacturing plants, to resume. This is in line with proposals from certain private sector groups worried about the mounting costs to the economy of a longer lockdown which would put more firms at risk of insolvency and more workers at risk of losing their jobs. One can nevertheless appreciate the tough policy choice before government. After more than five weeks of ECQ in the main island of Luzon, the country’s infection curve continues to rise, a reflection, many would agree, of testing constraints rather than actual morbidity. In turn, the slowness of testing is but one reflection of the country’s limited health resources and unpreparedness to contain the outbreak[1]. Although epidemic curves show significant flattening following the ECQ, health facilities built up in the interim are still just a fraction of peak requirements, estimated to occur in October if the ECQ is lifted.[2] Meanwhile, other non-medical interventions, i.e., mass testing, contact tracing and strict isolation, appear simply impossible to do at the speed needed to help flatten the curve further and reduce the demands on the health sector.Chart 1.Total confirmed cases in ASEANSource: Johns Hopkins CSSE, as of April 21. ...