​Will Turkey send her military to Syria?

TURKEY - In Brief 10 Feb 2016 by Atilla Yesilada
I felt the need to revisit the question of a Turkish military intervention in Syria because in the last 24 hours the linked articles in Business Insider, Financial Times and WSJ mentioned the possibility in different contexts. While there are many reasons why Turkish markets were sinking until today, the foremost being contagion to Turkish banking stocks from Euro Zone, fears of deeper Turkish involvement in the Syrian War might be holding back many investors who might have otherwise dipped their toes in TL or equities. The speculation about a Turkish intervention in Syria stems from a variety of sources: · The Russian press keeps the topic alive, with Putin hoping to draw Turkey in to avenge the downing of the jet fighter, · President Erdogan leaving the option of a military operation open in a chat with journalists on his way back from Latin America, · Saudi Arabia declaring its willingness to send troops to Syria to fight ISIS and appealing to the White House to draw up plans for a ground campaign, · Premier Davutoglu telling the AKP caucus meeting that Turkey will not leave Aleppo alone in its time of need. I might add that Erdogan is facing the biggest diplomatic defeat of his 15 year career in Syria, if Aleppo falls, and Syrian Kurds (PYD-YPG) capture the segment of the Syrian border called the Jerablus-Azez corridor to connect the Western and Eastern Kurdish cantons to form their own state. While he is unpredictable and vengeful, I still think that he will refrain from sending the military into Syria for a range of reasons. There are two potential theaters where a presumed Turkish-Arab ground force can operate; in the Northwest that is around Aleppo-Idlip region...

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