Winston Churchill’s Wisdom

BRAZIL ECONOMICS - Report 29 Nov 2024 by Alexandre Schwartsman, Cristina Pinotti and Diego Brandao

The long-postponed "fiscal adjustment package" has finally come to light. The reaction was so negative that some suggested another postponement would have been a better option.

The first conclusion we draw, as we will explore further, is that the magnitude of the promised adjustment falls short of changing the public debt path. While it may indeed extend the fiscal framework’s life span, it does not anchor fiscal expectations (which have long since faltered). Instead, it aims to ensure that discretionary spending is not squeezed beyond political limits over the next two years.

Now read on...

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