Winter has come

TURKEY - Report 31 Oct 2021 by Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada

As Erdogan meets European leaders and President Biden on the sidelines of G20 Summit, his presumably declining health comes to fore for two reasons. First, the world press is now alerted to the notion and will scrutinize his behavior closely. Secondly, if Erdogan were to suffer another health emergency, his capacity to make correct decisions befitting Turkey’s national interests will be in doubt.

His state of health has repercussions for domestic politics, too. The perception of an ailing president could bring forward 2023 elections, as well as hasten the infighting for post-Erdogan positioning. With a high margin of error, the politics author predicts that Erdogan will probably reach a settlement with Biden to avert additional CAATSA sanctions and the threat of an excruciating monetary penalty for Halkbank. Russia will have to be paid tribute for mothballing S-400s, but Turkey has some easy concessions in store to mollify Putin.

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