Politics: Xóchitl gains traction as quiet interlude begins, MC nominee stumbles out of the gate as AMLO fences Claudia in

MEXICO - Report 22 Jan 2024 by Guillermo Valdes and Francisco González

Now that we have reached the end of the period of campaigning for presidential nominations, it is worth assessing where the race stands. Following months of missteps, the opposition front’s Xóchitl Gálvez hit her stride with a series of successful events just as this period was drawing to a close. At the windup rally in Mexico City, by far her best event to date, she delivered a strong and very well documented critique of AMLO's administration and laid out a compelling narrative for her followers and undecided voters alike, reviving enthusiasm for a candidacy that had stagnated for months.

While turnout for the windup rally of Morena’s Claudia Sheinbaum reflected all the organizational muscle the government could provide, her speech was an exercise in AMLO mimicry, listing all of his government’s accomplishments and committing herself to the roadmap he has designed for her. The event also marked the clear reemergence of Marcelo Ebrard and his followers, a development that rumors attribute to AMLO's directly negotiating with his former minister of foreign affairs. This is, in short, the latest example of AMLO's trying to ensure he will continue to exert control over the government after he retires from office.

Lastly, the Citizen’s Movement party appears to have botched its effort to launch a campaign built around the little known campaign manager of the former de facto nominee, Samuel García. This makes it highly unlikely that the MC will come anywhere near to making good on its promise to overtake the opposition alliance as the nation's second strongest political force.

While formal campaigning for the presidency is on pause until February 28, when the general election period gets underway, the nominees will be busy quietly lining up support with major donors and other actors. At the same time, parties will try to settle on congressional and other down-ballot candidacies without provoking splits in their respective camps.

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