Year of the Bellwether

PHILIPPINES - Forecast 11 Feb 2015 by Romeo Bernardo and Christine Tang

Executive Summary Since the start of the year, financial markets have used sharply lower oil prices, expected to last for some time yet, as their bellwether, predicting continuing good fortune for the incoming Year of the Ram.Low oil prices plus the ECB’s large stimulus package and a modified Supreme Court ruling on the government’s Disbursement Acceleration Program will help push up GDP growth to 6.7% this year, in our view. However, ongoing wagers on the timing of a US rate hike will see more volatility in financial markets and the direction of capital flows.The Philippines also looks hea...

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