YES camp wins a narrow victory, I suppose

TURKEY - In Brief 16 Apr 2017 by Atilla Yesilada

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As I write these lines, PM Yildirim is giving his victory speech, because Turkey’s semi-official news agency Anatolian Agency announced the results of the presidential referendum. The constitutional amendments granting president Erdogan broad executive powers were approved by a margin of 51.3% to 48.7%. Yet, I have no idea where Anatolian Agency got its numbers. I’ve been checking the website of the High Election Council (HEC), which has the legal standing of a “high court” and the ultimate arbitrator of election results. It has crashed. Its latest announcement which was around 8:30 pm showed only 90% of the ballots counted with YES votes ahead by 51.5%. This is not the only awkward development. After the balloting ended, in a sudden verdict HEC ruled that unstamped ballots (an estimated 1.5 million) were eligible on the appeal of the AKP member of the board. It is precedent that such ballots should be discarded without opening. The CHP and HDP members objected. CHP and HPD are officially appealing the results. According to opposition media CHP believes up to 2.5 million votes should be disqualified or recounted. HDP and leaders of MHP’s dissidents have also concurred. I think it is highly unlikely HEC will accept or even hear the appeals by CHP or HDP, though I would like to wait until the morning hours to call the winner of the referendum, just in case HEC decides on a broad recount. The bigger question is whether OSCE monitors or other independent bodies such as domestic or international poll watchers would qualify this ballot as fair. Their word would probably have some influence on how Turkey’s diplomatic partners and supranational bodies like U.N. would treat the...