Yuan may remain in the 6.7-7 zone

CHINA - Report 25 May 2022 by FAN Gang and Chunyang Wang

The Shanghai lockdown is dragging down all the major growth indicators. In April, industrial output fell -2.9% y/y, and its growth rate in January-April decreased to 4% y/y, down 7.9 pps, and 2.5 pps from March. Industrial output in Shanghai and Northeastern China, major lockdown areas, was particularly hit hard, and fell -14.1% and -16.9% y/y, respectively. In January-April, investment rose 6.8% y/y, down 2.5 pps from Q1.

Overall, manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI were 42.7%, 47.4%, and 41.9% respectively in April, down 6.1 pps, 2.1 pps and 6.5 pps from March, showing that the economy is contracting across the board.

Retail sales of social consumption goods fell -11.1% y/y in April, and this led January-April consumption to fall -0.2% y/y, down 3.5 pps from Q1. Exports rose only 1.9% y/y, down 11 pps from March, a major drop.

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