Zelenskiy's Victory Plan – no territorial concessions

UKRAINE - In Brief 16 Oct 2024 by Dmytro Boyarchuk

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There are gloomy expectations across the country, as everyone understands that the results of the U.S. elections could dramatically change our lives—something completely beyond our control. Against this backdrop, Zelenskiy's Victory Plan seems to be an effort to show that Ukrainian leadership is still proactive about shaping our future, rather than just waiting for others to decide our fate. While it’s not a detailed plan in the strictest sense, it’s clearly a response to repeated requests for clarity on how Ukraine envisions the war’s end. Once again, President Zelenskiy emphasized that territorial concessions in exchange for a ceasefire are off the table. Western skepticism about this statement remains high, with many assuming that if U.S. support for Ukraine wanes after the November elections, Ukraine will be left with no option but to make concessions. For some reason, Western pundits seem blind to the fact that such concessions are politically impossible in Ukraine. If they happen, it would trigger dramatic events that neither the U.S. nor the EU are prepared for. In this sense, despite his flaws, Zelenskiy seems to have a far clearer understanding of the situation than the pundits pushing for a peace deal. Some may wonder what these dramatic events could be. First, Ukrainians will not 'buy' any truce or ceasefire agreement with Russia. If such an agreement is made, the EU could face a new wave of refugees as people will refuse to sit and wait for Russia to regroup and return to finish what they started. It’s hard to imagine anything that could change this mindset. Second, the outlook for European integration would become bleak. Delays in weapons supplies and West...