Zuluaga takes 1st place in first round. There will be a run-off on June 15th

COLOMBIA - In Brief 25 May 2014 by Andrés Escobar Arango
With more than 99% of the votes accounted for, Oscar Ivan Zuluaga captured 29.27% of the votes, while President Santos came in second, with 25.63%. This means, of course, there will be a run-off election on June 15th, three weeks from now. Abstention exceeded 60%. Martha Lucía Ramírez, from the Conservative party, came in third, with 15.54%, while Clara López, from the left, took 15.23%. Enrique Peñalosa, at some point thought to be a serious contender, came in last with only 8.29%. Alliances will be key. Mr. Peñalosa has already conceded and, even though he did not explicitly endorse Mr. Santos, he did mention the importance to keep the peace efforts alive. Ms. López might also endorse Mr. Santos. So, the key issue going forward will be Ms. Ramírez' endorsement. Votes don't necessarily follow candidates' endorsements. However, if the people who voted today for Mr. Peñalosa and Ms. López vote for Santos in the run-off, the President would get 49.15% of the votes. If, on the other hand, the Conservatives led by Ms. Ramírez vote for Mr. Zuluaga, he would get 44.81%. Clearly, this is still a very close race, but arithmetic and politics do not necessarily go hand in hand. Mr. Zuluaga's momentum can generate a stampede of politicians and/or voters deciding to support him. In that case, Zuluaga will be the winner in the run-off. Our revised forecast, with these results, is that Mr. Zuluaga's chances of reaching the presidency of Colombia are now 55%, and Mr. Santos' 45%.

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