CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA
Analyst
Ivan Tchakarov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The Kyrgyz som looks vulnerable, but the trade may be early rather than wrong
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 Jul 2026
The Kyrgyz som is being held on an exceptionally tight leash. The central bank has sold almost US$1.5bn through nine interventions in 2026—already far above the full-year total for 2025—yet the USDKGS has barely moved from 87.45. At this point, the policy looks increasingly like defense of a leve...
Remittance riches shore up Tajikistan’s external accounts
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 16 Jul 2026
Tajikistan external story is probably the simplest as the BoP is heavily dominated by remittances from Russia. Tajikistan is the last in the short series on the external accounts of the CCA economies, and it is arguably the most straightforward of all. It has been posting CA surpluses since mid-2...
Uzbekistan's BoP suffers the pinch of gold, albeit with a caveat
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 15 Jul 2026
The CA deficit has widened significantly on lack of gold exports. Uzbekistan had enjoyed a stream of steadily improving external accounts over 2024/2025 as the CA deficit narrowed from the peak of 8.0 percent of GDP in 1Q24 (on a 12mma basis) to the trough of only 1.9 percent of GDP in 3Q25 (Grap...
Georgia is riding an FX wave to its smallest current-account deficit ever
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 14 Jul 2026
Georgia's external story has its own defining characteristics, centered around the steady inflow of foreign exchange in the face of complex political relations with the West. The CA registered a deficit of US$356.0mn in 1Q26 on the back of the US$631.1mn deficit posted in 1Q25 and the US$482.5mn ...
Azerbaijan's external accounts come with an increasingly large SOFAZ asterisk
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 13 Jul 2026
Azerbaijan comes second in my analysis of the external accounts in the CCA region and the improvement it saw in its CA position in 1Q26 was not for the reason one may have anticipated. The CA surplus improved to 9.5 percent of GDP in the quarter from 2.4 percent of GDP in 4Q25 and 6.5 percent of ...
Geopolitical tailwinds lift Armenia’s external accounts
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 10 Jul 2026
While Kyrgyzstan reported its full-year 2025 BoP data only last week, the rest of the CCA region already released their external accounts for the first quarter of 2026 over the course of the past week. I generally prefer to comment on them in a single post, but this time around I have decided to ...
Kyrgyzstan has yet to convincingly rein in opaque trade flows
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 26 Jun 2026 · 1 response
I must admit that I have a soft spot for Kyrgyzstan's BoP data. It is probably the most exciting set of external flows from an analytical perspective in my CCA region and a treasury trove for drawing conclusions about Bishkek's efforts to clamp down on opaque trade with Russia. The analysis is, o...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Opposition cross-pollination in the South Caucasus—Armenia and Georgia exchanging lessons from the political battlefield
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 25 Jun 2026
Two key events have taken place in the Armenian and Georgian political fields these days. In the former, I see no surprises coming from tomorrow's Constitutional Court decision on the validity of the elections as the Court will rubber stamp Pashinyan's victory. The really interesting debate th...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The new shade of success? Think Uzbek green!
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Jun 2026 · 1 response
Uzbekistan is Central Asia’s rising heavyweight, and I have discussed its various shades of success, ranging from its improving macro-stability, narrowing twin deficits and rising quality of policy-making to its strengthening demographics and improving health statistics. One particular area that ...