CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA
Analyst
Ivan Tchakarov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Shadow over Ararat: Strikes on Iran reveal Armenia's strategic vulnerability
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 02 Mar 2026
The aftershocks of the latest round of missile strikes in Iran have been quick to reverberate across the South Caucasus, raising fresh questions about the security, trade routes, and economic resiliency of Armenia. Instability on Armenia’s southern border could rapidly evolve into a structural ch...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia—is the diamond trade making a comeback?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Feb 2026
I have over the last couple of years liked to compare the economic performance of Armenia and Georgia. My pithy conclusion has been that the soaring GDP growth that averaged 10 percent annually in 2022 and 2023 in both countries reflected similar underlying reasons related to the favorable effect...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The debt implications of upgrading Armenia's nuclear industry
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Feb 2026
Armenia and USA signed this month a joint statement of cooperation on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The government and newswires have hurried to conclude that the USA would provide US$9bn as part of the deal, which ultimately results in constructing a small modular (nuclear) reactor (SMR). ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia notches another record-breaking year in tourism
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 13 Feb 2026
Tourism in Georgia has traditionally been an important income generator for the economy, having brought on average about 8.6 percent of GDP annually over 2010-2025 (and about 12.5 percent of GDP in both 2024 and 2025). Naturally, then, the events of the last two years spanning the adoption of the...
Kyrgyzstan: "Two friends never fight for power"
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 11 Feb 2026 · 1 response
President Sadyr Japarov clears the decks ahead of a high-stakes presidential race looming larger. For the second time since Oct Kyrgyzstan has come to the fore in terms of offering us a glimpse of how the obscure political field in the country operates. In a largely unexpected, albeit probably no...
Why is the Uzbek Soum losing some altitude in early 2026?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 10 Feb 2026
While I am on topic (see my report "Uzbekistan is gingerly breaking away from the twin-deficit curse"), I offer my pithy thoughts on the early-year softening of the UZS since I have been prompted by client questions. The 2025 unusual strengthening of regional currencies (vs the US$) figured prom...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan is gingerly breaking away from the twin-deficit curse
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Feb 2026 · 1 response
Probably the most cited economic risks for Uzbekistan over the years have been its persistent CA and fiscal gaps. Indeed, the twin deficits ballooned from a virtual balance in 2017 to a hefty 12.6% of GDP in 2023. The surge in fiscal spending in the post-COVID years and political cycle-related lo...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The South Caucasus through a strategic lens
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 Jan 2026
A new era is dawning in the South Caucasus, in which politics, geopolitical developments, and a changing energy and security picture will increasingly feature as key investment variables, rather than background noise. Elections will take place in 2026 in Armenia, consolidation in politics is unde...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Pashinyan is looking for agents of the KGB and "traitors of Christ" in Armenia
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 23 Jan 2026
The start of the political year in Armenia has been rich in events and indicative of the kind of fraught environment that we are to face in the runup to the all-important Parliamentary vote in Jun. This is not surprising as I argued in my Year-Ahead Outlook that I fully expected Armenia to be the...