CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA
Analyst
Ivan Tchakarov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Why is Georgia growing so much faster than Armenia?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 Aug 2025
When the IMF upped its 2025 GDP forecast for Georgia (to 7.2%) in June upon conducting its regular Article IV Mission in Tbilisi, many were caught by surprise. After all, wasn't Georgia about to experience the aftershocks of the contested parliamentary and presidential elections in 2024 as religi...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: How much time will it take to build a functioning TRIPP?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Aug 2025
The various geopolitical angles surrounding the Washington Summit between Armenia and Azerbaijan have now been well analyzed in full detail. One particular (technical) consideration that has captured my attention has, however, been given virtually no consideration by experts. It relates to the so...
Pashinyan and Aliyev take key steps toward peace — but at what cost, and to whose benefit?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 09 Aug 2025
The signing of the Joint Declaration by Armenia and Azerbaijan reveals a geopolitical process that falls in line with the forecast I presented in my July Webinar. In particular, the declaration confirms my view that global and regional players (chiefly US, Turkey and Azerbaijan) recognize that Pa...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan is making good progress with renewable energy sources
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 Aug 2025
In the past several days, two stories about the energy industry of Uzbekistan have made headlines. First, Uzbekistan and SOCAR Azerbaijan have entered into a production sharing agreement (PSA) on the Ustyurt plateau with expectations of investing US$2bn and discovering an impressive 100mn tons of...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Most frequently asked questions from the CCA Webinar
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Aug 2025
In last week's CCA Webinar I focused on the political developments in the region, including Georgian Dream's chances of winning the local elections in October, Armenian PM Pashinyan's attack on the Armenian Apostolic Church, and the recent escalation of tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia. The...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current account positions improve marginally in CCA in 1Q25
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Jul 2025
The 1Q25 data for the CCA economies, which was published over the last week or so, shows that the regional current account (CA) position improved marginally in the first quarter of the year, but remained in deficit. In particular, the CA deficit ex-Azerbaijan narrowed from 2.1 percent of GDP in 4...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The battle of the Caucasus—What is happening between Azerbaijan and Russia and what will be the consequences?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 03 Jul 2025
Key events in the Caucasus are these days being forced upon us with constant regularity. While Pashinyan has resorted to extreme measures to suppress dissent against his unpopular moves to placate Turkey and Azerbaijan and strike a peace deal that the Armenian society sees as a capitulation, Aliy...
Topic of the week - 2Q25 CCA Slide deck
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Jun 2025
The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 208-slide detailed description of the economic status-quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the second quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, in...
Armenia: PM Pashinyan resorts to desperate means to cling to power
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 26 Jun 2025
Pashinyan is getting rid of the opposition. I have spent a lot of time in the last month or so writing about Armenia, and it seems for good reason. The loss in the municipal elections in Gyumri, the rising momentum to impeach Pashinyan, and the PM's ill-fated attack on the Church are a few exampl...