CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA
Analyst
Ivan Tchakarov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistEvents
Recent Country Insights
April CCA Highlights: Armenia's deflation persists, Azerbaijan's GDP growth strong in 1Q, Georgia buys gold, Uzbekistan raises utility tariffs, Tajikistan summons Russian amabassador
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 Apr 2024
We comment on the key economic developments in the Caucasus and Central Asia in April: Armenia: Monthly economic indicator grows by 15.3% YoY in Mar Armenia: Central Bank lowers refinancing rate by 25bpts to 8.25% Armenia: CA posts a 2.1% of GDP deficit in 2023 Armenia: Gross external debt ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia and Georgia rising
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Apr 2024
Once per year, we conduct one of our favorite exercises in the CIS space, which encompasses our target Caucasus and Central Asia region. Based on the April WEO, which has final 2023 PPP-based GDP data, we calculate per-capita GDP levels and 10-year GDP growth rates in order to rank individual eco...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Diamond-turbocharged growth in Armenia
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 19 Apr 2024
Armenia was the fourth fastest-growing economy in the world last year (8.7 percent in 2023), but the heady pace of expansion had been slowing down to around 5-6 percent YoY by Sep/Oct last year when a sudden surge of economic activity resulted in much accelerated growth. Indeed, over Nov-Feb GDP ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Analysis of growth drivers points to upside risks to economic performance in 2024
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 12 Apr 2024
The publication of the national accounts data for 4Q23 allows us to investigate in more detail the breakdown of growth drivers across Caucasus and Central Asia economies for the year (2023) as a whole. The most salient feature of our analysis is that the counter-intuitive (and counter-cyclical) i...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CAs return to "normal" deficit positions in 2023 (and beyond)
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Apr 2024
The publication of current account data for the CCA economies for 4Q23 allows us to assess overall external performance in 2023. Our key conclusion is that the one-off sizable improvement of CA positions in 2022 on the back of excess monetary inflows (remittances) from Russia has mostly come to a...
CCA Highlights: Armenia boasts stellar early 2024 growth, Azerbaijan cuts rates, Georgia's outlook upgraded by Moody's, Uzbekistan sees continuing declines in gas output
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Mar 2024
We comment on the key macro and political stories in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Monthly economic indicator soars to 16.3% y/y in Feb Armenia: Budget posts large deficit in Feb Armenia: PM argues that GDP is growing above its potential Armenia: PM claims Azerbaijan may start war...
CCA Highlights: Armenia approaches neutral rate, Georgia makes a bold rate cut, Uzbekistan re-introduces limits on electricity consumption
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Mar 2024
We briefly comment on key macro and political events in the CCA space: Armenia: Deflation steepens in Feb Armenia: Central Bank cuts refinancing rate by 25bpts to 8.50 percent Armenia: CB Governor sees policy rate approaching neutral level Armenia: Budget posts surplus in Jan Armenia: Net ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Diverging impulses in monetary policies across CCA
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Mar 2024
This week brought three rate decisions in the CCA, including Armenia, Georgia and Uzbekistan. They demonstrate that, while the broader easing momentum in the region continues, policymakers take a different view on how underlying macroeconomic conditions affect the path for policy rates. Indeed...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA Quarterly Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 Mar 2024
We provide the quarterly update of our country “cheat sheets”. Since we published our 2024 Outlook, which we dubbed “Less growth, less risk”, the evolution of macroeconomic activity has been supportive of the idea of a slightly moderating pace of activity. Still, the start of the year has been st...