CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA
Analyst
Ivan Tchakarov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: From tech boom to lasting wealth—Armenia vs Georgia
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Oct 2026
The Georgian press enthusiastically reported last week almost US$850mn in ICT export revenues in the first half of the year. This has prompted me to evaluate whether the post-2022 ICT boom has generated lasting gains in GDP, jobs, income and FX earnings, and whether Georgia or Armenia is better p...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Who Buys the Bonds? Armenia and Georgia’s 2027 Funding Test
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 09 Oct 2026
Armenia and Georgia have now both entered the formal 2027 budget cycle. Armenia’s government submitted its 2027 budget proposal on October 1, which came only a day after Georgia’s government had presented its own 2027 budget package together with a document titled “Basic Data and Directions” for ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Gold-rich, shock-proof? Testing external buffers across the Caucasus and Central Asia
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 02 Oct 2026
CCA countries have been breaking records in accumulating FX reserves. While Uzbekistan has mostly been on the radar screen given its very large stock of reserves, the rest of the countries have also been setting new highs in building up FX buffers, albeit for different reasons, ranging from remit...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Policy rates—higher for longer?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 25 Sep 2026
The unfolding of the Iran crisis and the attendant inflation shock has changed the way central banks in the region have been assessing risks and acting upon them. Kyrgyzstan was tightening even before the onset of the crisis, but Georgia (in May) and Armenia (last week) also raised policy rates, ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia’s export stress test: shock, adaptation or diversion?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Sep 2026
I had earlier poked fun at Nikol Pashinyan's statement that "If peppers are spoiling, I'll pay for those peppers. If roses are spoiling, I'll pay for them, too." It represented an emotionally-charged outburst that was tied to the restrictions imposed by Russia on a number of Armenian exports in M...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Too hot to handle? Mapping overheating risks in Eurasia
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Sep 2026
Evaluating the medium-term government programs in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan has brought into sharper focus the very high growth rates in these economies, with neighboring Kyrgyzstan comfortably beating even those ambitious 7-8% plus growth projections. A question that I have posed for myself in r...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Non-gold exports put a floor under the Uzbek som
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 04 Sep 2026
My readers know that I prefer to look at FX developments in the CCA region chiefly through the prism of the Russian RUB. I have repeatedly argued that this provides the best first-order approximation of the various other relevant factors affecting currency behavior in the region. This time around...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Tajikistan's high-octane growth bet
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Aug 2026
Continuing in the vein of my analyses of medium-term frameworks, I follow on the Uzbekistan's 2027-2029 Fiscal Strategy and now dissect the medium-term macroeconomic framework presented by the Tajik government on Jul 29. Without a doubt, it comes across as an ambitious high-growth scenario cente...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan’s fiscal reset gains traction
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Aug 2026
I have in the last two weeks combed through the almost 200-page 2027-2029 Fiscal Strategy (in Uzbek only) released by the Uzbek Ministry of Economy and Finance. It has been a laborious, yet worthwhile exercise. My key takeaway is that Uzbekistan is turning fiscal discipline from a one-off cor...