CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA
Analyst
Ivan Tchakarov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Q&A on 2024 Uzbekistan macro
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Dec 2024
In 2024, Uzbekistan's economy continued to grow at a pace comparable to previous years. GDP grew by 6.6% over Jan-Sep. In 11 months, accumulated inflation has risen to 8.7%, which is higher than the same indicator in 2023. Annual (YoY) inflation has exceeded 10%. At the end of the year, the Centr...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: 2025 CCA Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Forecast · 13 Dec 2024
2025 will bring lower GDP growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia, although the moderation in the pace of economic activity will be limited. We forecast average GDP growth to ease from an estimated 6.8% in 2024 to 5.5% in 2025, which will still be slightly above the previous decade's (2014-2023) ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Did Georgian Dream push its luck by suspending EU accession talks?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Dec 2024
Just as the post-election environment was getting calmer and the opposition looked dejected and lost, the new government (and Georgian Dream) decided to let the genie out of the bottle by springing the surprise decision to suspend EU accession talks until 2028. This only invigorated the oppositio...
Nov CCA Highlights: Armenia lowers CPI target, Azerbaijan grows strongly in Oct, Georgia sells record-high FX to prop up lari, Uzbekistan delays meeting CPI target
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 29 Nov 2024
We discuss briefly the key macro and political events in the Caucasus and Central Asia this Nov: Armenia: GDP grows by 5.2% YoY in 3Q24 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator decelerates to 4.2% YoY in Oct Armenia: CPI steady in Oct at 0.6% YoY Armenia: CB to lower inflation target to 3% in 20...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: A cynic's view on Abkhazia's Black Friday
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 Nov 2024
The breakaway Republic of Abkhazia, which is internationally recognized as part of Georgia, got its 15 minutes of fame last Friday when protesters stormed government buildings in Sukhumi in opposition to an investment agreement that would have legalized Russian investments and ownership of land a...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Shall we brace for a currency crisis in Georgia?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Nov 2024
For a week we tried to steer away from Georgia and discussed (last week) the medium-term budgetary envelope in Uzbekistan, but events in Georgia give us no respite. The very large decline in FX reserves in Georgia last month has raised fears about the sustainability of FX buffers in an environmen...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan is on course to tame its fiscal excesses
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 Nov 2024
Uzbekistan's Ministry of Finance has presented a draft fiscal framework for 2025 with a headline deficit of 3% of GDP or UZS 49.3tn (US$ 3.7bn). This estimate is based on the consolidated revenues and expenditure of the state, the country's development fund, and 18 extra-budgetary funds. It will ...
Webinar replay: Georgia's Elections and Caucasus and Central Asia Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Nov 2024
Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the CCA's political and economic outlook. What will Georgia's outlook be following its war or peace parliamentary elections? Is Armenia's diamond bonanza over? How did Uzbekistan and Tajikistan manage to increase remittances and imp...
Slide presentation: Georgia's Elections and Caucasus and Central Asia Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Nov 2024
Get insight into the Caucasus and Central Asia region's political and economic outlook with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Georgia's Elections and Caucasus and Central Asia Outlook".