CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA
Analyst
Ivan Tchakarov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistRecent Country Insights
Apr CCA highlights: Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan keep policy rates unchanged, Armenia concludes 5th review of IMF's SBA, Georgia defies expectations and grows strongly, by 9.3 % YoY in 1Q
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 May 2025
I review key economic and political events in the CCA in April: Armenia: CPI rises to 3.3% YoY in Mar Armenia: Monthly economic indicator grows by 3.7% YoY in Mar Armenia: IMF and Armenia reach staff level agreement on the Fifth Review of the SBA Armenia: FX reserves jump in Mar on Eurobon...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA public external debt service appears (mostly) manageable over 2025-26
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 25 Apr 2025
I continue exploring the external side of the CCA economies as the more challenging global backdrop in the wake of Trump's tariffs may add to the already worsening CA dynamics that I discussed earlier in Apr. In this report I examine the public external debt profile and debt service for 2025 and...
Armenia: Opposition takes Gyumri in a potentially key milestone in Armenian politics
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 17 Apr 2025
As I anticipated, the Council of Elders of the second-largest city in Armenia was able yesterday to elect Vardan Ghukasyan (the leading candidate from the Communist party) as the new mayor of Gyumri. This is an important event in Armenian politics for at least three key reasons. First, it demonst...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current account positions decay in CCA in 2024; deterioration to continue in 2025
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Apr 2025
The 4Q24 data for our CCA economies, which was published over the last week or so, shows that the regional current account (CA) position deteriorated in the last quarter of the year. In particular, the CA deficit ex-Azerbaijan deteriorated from 0.8 percent of GDP in 3Q24 to 1.8 percent of GDP in ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia - What happened in Gyumri?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 04 Apr 2025
While the world is justifiably focused on US tariffs, I ponder on the much more esoteric, but no less exciting topic of regional elections in Armenia. Last week the second-largest city in the country, Gyumri, held municipal elections that delivered a result that may have very important consequen...
Mar CCA highlights: Armenia issues Eurobonds, Azerbaijan's SOFAZ to increase gold holdings to 170 tons, US$6bn FDI to Georgia from UAE to start next year, Uzbekistan implements a surprise rate hike
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Mar 2025
In this report, I briefly touch on the key macro-political events in the CCA during Mar: Armenia: CPI accelerates to 2.5% YoY in Feb Armenia: Central Bank keeps key policy rate unchanged at 6.75% Armenia: Monthly economic indicator drops to only 1.5% YoY in Feb Armenia: Withdrawal from EEU ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: FDI in Georgia underwhelms in 2024
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Mar 2025
Last week the Georgian statistical office reported the much awaited full-year (2024) data on FDI. Similar to the tourist numbers I discussed earlier, foreign direct investment has been the subject of intense discussions and speculation over the course of last year as the government and the opposi...
Topic of the week - 1Q2025 CCA Slide deck
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 Mar 2025
The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 216-slide detailed description of the economic status-quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the first quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, inf...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Two good pieces of macro news for Uzbekistan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Mar 2025
A key macro risk for Uzbekistan has been the transition into a net gas importer status in 2023. The external gap in trading natural gas worsened significantly in 2024 as the country continued to suffer from declining gas production. Still, overall trade dynamics improved last year as higher gas...