CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA
Analyst
Ivan Tchakarov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistEvents
Recent Country Insights
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgian elections—the calm before the storm
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Oct 2024
The Georgian Parliamentary elections are attracting a great deal of attention, and the CEC announced that international observer organizations are already at a record high. With the geopolitical stakes so high, the elections have been described by the ruling Georgian Dream as a choice between war...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: How did Armenia and Georgia manage to grow their economies by a fifth in 2022-2023?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Oct 2024
We have on a number of occasions underlined the strong growth performance that Armenia and Georgia have enjoyed over the last couple of years. This has helped boost their standing in the GDP-per-capita ranking in the CIS space. Both countries have delivered an impressive 20% real GDP growth over ...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CA positions improve in the CCA in 2Q24, allowing for useful FX reserve buildup
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 04 Oct 2024
The publication of current account data for the CCA economies for 2Q24 allows us to assess the overall external performance in the region in the second quarter of the year. The 2Q24 data for our CCA economies, which was published this week, has shown an improving external position (for all count...
Sep CCA Highlights: Armenia keeps easing, Azerbaijan reveals key assumptions of 2025 budget, Georgia grows by 9.0% over 1H, Uzbekistan leaves policy rates unchanged
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Sep 2024
We briefly comment on the key macro and political events in the CCA in Sep: Armenia: Central Bank cuts policy rate by 25bpts to 7.50% Armenia: CPI remains contained at 1.3% YoY in Aug Armenia: Central Bank expects economy to grow by 5.8-6.5% in 2024 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator slow...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA Quarterly Outlook-3Q24
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Sep 2024
We provide the quarterly update of our country “cheat sheets”. The evolution of macroeconomic activity has been strong in 2024, and we have upgraded our full-year CCA GDP growth to 6.3 percent (5.8 percent previously) vs the 6.2 percent posted last year. This has been chiefly due to better perfo...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Political spectrum shapes up in Georgia in the run-up to the Oct elections
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 13 Sep 2024
We stay on topic with Georgia as we transition from economics, which we discussed last week, to politics and, in particular, the upcoming Oct 26th Parliamentary Elections. The political spectrum has already shaped up, with three opposition coalitions facing the ruling Georgian Dream. While the la...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgian economy firing on all cylinders
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Sep 2024
The Georgian economy has posted a very impressive 9.7 percent GDP growth over the first seven months of the year (YoY), rendering it the fastest-growing economy in the CCA space. Fast-declining inflation has helped generate high real wage growth and, consequently, robust consumption spending. Low...
Aug CCA Highlights: Armenian 1H GDP growth revised down, Azerbaijan gets IG status from Fitch, Uzbekistan's GDP surpasses US$100bn, Tajikistan upgraded by S&P
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 Aug 2024
We comment on the key macro and political events in the CCA region in Aug: Armenia: 2Q GDP grows by 6.4% YoY Armenia: Fitch affirms Armenia at BB- with a stable outlook Armenia: Central bank cuts refinancing rate by 25bpts to 7.75% Armenia: Inflation edges up to 1.4% YoY in Jul Armenia: Bu...
TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Tajikistan gets a well-warranted rating upgrade
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 23 Aug 2024
S&P has upgraded Tajikistan to B from B- citing robust GDP growth, improved external position and moderate public debt levels. We think the upgrade is well deserved. Twice in the last year we have posited that perceptions about Tajikistan’s ability to meet external obligations have been unduly pl...