CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA

Analyst

Ivan Tchakarov
Former Investment Bank Chief Economist

Recent Country Insights

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Russian diamonds lose their shine for Armenia
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 12 Jul 2024

We argued recently that the heady GDP growth that Armenia has been posting since last Nov can be almost exclusively attributed to the trade in Russian diamonds. In particular, we tracked it down to the exponential increase in diamond trade over the axis of Russia-Armenia-UAE/Hong Kong, which, in...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: 1Q24 entrenches theme of CA return to "normal" deficit position
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Jul 2024

The publication of current account data for the CCA economies for 1Q24 allows us to assess overall external performance in the region in the first quarter of the year. The key theme that we have argued previously, i.e., that the one-off sizable improvement of CA positions in 2022 on the back of ...

Jun CCA Highlights: Armenia cuts rates, inflation rears its head in Armenia and Azerbaijan, Georgia's 1Q24 GDP growth impresses, higher tariffs take a toll on Uzbekistan's inflation
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Jun 2024

We comment briefly on the key macro events in the CCA region in Jun: Armenia: Central bank cuts refinancing rate by 25bpts to 8.00 percent Armenia: Inflation returns in May Armenia: Net remittances drop in Apr Armenia: Budget posts small deficit during Jan-May Armenia: Foreign reserves inc...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA Quarterly Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Jun 2024

We provide the quarterly update of our country “cheat sheets”. Since we published our 2024 Outlook, which we dubbed “Less growth, less risk”, the evolution of macroeconomic activity has been supportive of the idea of a slightly moderating pace of activity. Still, the start of the year has been st...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenian central bank sticks to rate cuts, for now
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 Jun 2024

Against a background of robust economic activity but still subdued inflation, the central bank implemented its fourth rate cut this year, lowering the key refinancing rate by 25bpts to 8.00 percent. Cumulative cuts since the start of the easing cycle last May have now amounted to an impressive 27...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Does the Uzbek sum's appreciation have legs?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Jun 2024

The Uzbekistani sum has generally been the weakest currency in the CCA region for many years for reasons related to powerful underlying relative price movements that have dominated the sum's movements since the opening of the economy in 2017. Hence, any episode of a more sizable strengthening of ...

May CCA Highlights: Armenia grows by 9.2% in 1Q24, Azerbaijan and Georgia stick with rate cuts, Uzbekistan's CPI jumps on higher utility tariffs, Tajikistan grows by 8.3% in 1Q
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 31 May 2024

We comment briefly on the key macro events in the CCA region in May: Armenia: GDP expands by 9.2% YoY in 1Q Armenia: Monthly economic indicator slows to 10.4% YoY in Apr Armenia: Deflation lingers on in Apr Armenia: Budget posts small deficit in 1Q24 Armenia: Foreign reserves decrease to U...

Webinar Replay - Caucasus and Central Asia: Economic Upswings and Political Prospects
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 May 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the macroeconomic and political outlook for Armenia, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Azerbaijan. Why is Armenia growing at around twice projected GDP rates and what is PM Pashinyan's strategy for staying in power? Is Georgia headi...

Slide Presentation: Caucasus and Central Asia - Economic Upswings and Political Prospects
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 May 2024

Get insight into the macroeconomic and political outlook for Armenia, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Azerbaijan with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Caucasus and Central Asia - Economic Upswings and Political Prospects".

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