CHINA FINANCIAL
Analyst
Michael Pettis
Professor of Finance, Peking UniversityRecent Country Insights
Waiting for the Man
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Oct 2024
Special points to highlight in this report: * As we have come to expect in the past few months, September’s data release was disappointing, with the demand side struggling to keep pace with a not-especially-brisk supply side. Import growth was much weaker than export growth, and what little i...
What is happening with China’s long-dated government bonds?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Aug 2024
Special points to highlight in this report: * July’s data continues to indicate a sluggish economy, but it is important to add that even as overall growth is slowing, the quality of growth is also deteriorating. As I see it, “high quality” growth in China is the share of growth driven mainly ...
Why is it so hard for China to boost domestic consumption?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 23 Jul 2024 · 1 response
Special points to highlight in this report: * The consumption share of GDP is so low in China that for it to comprise a more normal level, equivalent to that of other very low-consuming economies, requires that in the future, the consumption share of GDP growth be extraordinarily high. For ex...
The economy is weak going into the Third Plenum
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Jul 2024
Special points to highlight in this report: * The Third Plenum opened today and will go on through Wednesday. Today also saw the release of June and second quarter economic data. * Today’s data release (along with inflation and trade numbers at the end of last week) confirms trends that w...
Waiting for the Third Plenum
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Jun 2024
Special points to highlight in this report: As I mentioned in my May report, the Third Plenum is scheduled to be held in July, much later than the expected October or November date last year. Most analysts believe the long delay suggests the lack of a consensus over how to address weak domesti...
What will China do about excess housing?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 May 2024 · 1 response
Special points to highlight in this issue: * The Third Plenum is scheduled to be held in July, much later than the expected October or November date last year. Most analysts believe the long delay suggests the lack of a consensus over how to address weak domestic demand, a rapidly contracting...
Why inflating debt away isn’t an option for China
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 Apr 2024
Special points to highlight in this report: * First quarter results were better than expected in terms of the volume of economic activity delivered, but there has been no improvement in the composition of growth. In spite of continued promises by Beijing to deliver demand-side growth, Chinese ...
Quick thoughts on the Two Sessions
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Mar 2024
Special points to highlight in this report: * Although we can expect flexibility on the downside, China’s 2024 GDP growth target of 5 percent is nonetheless aggressive given the headwinds. There are debt constraints on a major revival of investment—whether in the property sector, infrastructu...
The Year of the Dragon is supposed to be a good year
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 12 Feb 2024
Special points to highlight in this report: * One of the key issues in the Year of the Dragon is likely to be how seriously Beijing is about reining in non-productive infrastructure spending among its more highly-indebted provinces. In an announcement last month— that didn’t get as much attent...