CHINA FINANCIAL

Analyst

Michael Pettis
Professor of Finance, Peking University

Recent Country Insights

The economy is weak going into the Third Plenum
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Jul 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * The Third Plenum opened today and will go on through Wednesday. Today also saw the release of June and second quarter economic data. * Today’s data release (along with inflation and trade numbers at the end of last week) confirms trends that w...

Waiting for the Third Plenum
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Jun 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: As I mentioned in my May report, the Third Plenum is scheduled to be held in July, much later than the expected October or November date last year. Most analysts believe the long delay suggests the lack of a consensus over how to address weak domesti...

What will China do about excess housing?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 May 2024 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The Third Plenum is scheduled to be held in July, much later than the expected October or November date last year. Most analysts believe the long delay suggests the lack of a consensus over how to address weak domestic demand, a rapidly contracting...

Why inflating debt away isn’t an option for China
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 Apr 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * First quarter results were better than expected in terms of the volume of economic activity delivered, but there has been no improvement in the composition of growth. In spite of continued promises by Beijing to deliver demand-side growth, Chinese ...

Quick thoughts on the Two Sessions
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Mar 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * Although we can expect flexibility on the downside, China’s 2024 GDP growth target of 5 percent is nonetheless aggressive given the headwinds. There are debt constraints on a major revival of investment—whether in the property sector, infrastructu...

The Year of the Dragon is supposed to be a good year
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 12 Feb 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * One of the key issues in the Year of the Dragon is likely to be how seriously Beijing is about reining in non-productive infrastructure spending among its more highly-indebted provinces. In an announcement last month— that didn’t get as much attent...

2023 ended pretty weak, suggesting a weak start for 2024
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Jan 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * There were no surprises in Beijing’s recent economic data releases, either for December or for the full-year 2023. As expected, with annual GDP growth of 5.2 percent, China managed to exceed its GDP growth target, but (also as expected) not withou...

Managing debt will be a major issue for Beijing in 2024
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 28 Dec 2023

Special points to highlight in this report: * The problem of what to do with the debt will probably dominate economic policy-making discussions in Beijing in 2024. As of now, there seems to be a split between economists, who want to address the quality of economic activity, and non-economists,...

China’s external constraints
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Nov 2023

Special points to highlight in this report: * We continued to see a slow recovery in growth in October along with, far more importantly, a slight improvement in the quality of growth, as consumption growth for the year outpaced GDP growth. But as always, nothing fundamental has changed. *...

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