GULF COUNTRIES
Analyst
Justin Alexander
Former Economic Advisor, Qatar Finance MinistryDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Iran fires missiles at US airbase in Qatar—possibly a stage-managed retaliation
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 23 Jun 2025
In the last hour, Iran has been firing missiles at Qatar. This is an evolving situation, but here are some very preliminary thoughts: Of all the potential targets in the region, Qatar and Al-Udeid Airbase are probably the best defended, including with Patriot batteries.The base, which houses up t...
The GCC and oil market wait to see if Iran will respond to the US strikes
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 22 Jun 2025
Oil futures have begun trading in Asia and, so far, the response is muted. The September Brent contract nearly touched $80 on open, but within half an hour of trading, had eased back to $77 (Inv). There is still nearly $10 of risk premium in there compared with 10 days ago, but it remains close t...
GULF WEEKLY: Trump mulls entering war, UAE FDI remains strong, S&P rates UAE, Oman’s GDP picks up in Q1
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Jun 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Israel has air superiority, and Iran’s medium-range missiles are nearly exhausted. * Trump is considering joining the war to bomb the hardened Fordow nuclear site. * The direct impact on the GCC and hydrocarbons remains l...
GULF WEEKLY: Israeli strikes on Iran cause major damage, Saudi Q1 GDP revised up, Oman’s tourist numbers decline
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Jun 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: *Israel's strikes caused major damage to military and nuclear sites and killed senior leaders. *Oil, hovering around $75, has not yet priced in a major risk of a closure of Hormuz. *Gulf states, including even Bahrain, cond...
Oil spikes to $75 as Israel strikes Iran and kills the head of its military
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 12 Jun 2025
What happened? Writing a few hours into the attacks, which began around 3am on Friday (7.30pm ET Thur), there is only limited information about what has happened. There were at least six explosions in Tehran, some targeting residential buildings linked to military and scientific families. Civilia...
GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ accelerates taper, TSMC moots UAE gigafab, Qatar and Oman fiscal outturns
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Jun 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ announced another 0.4m b/d production hike for July, but Brent rose to $66 on US-China talks. * Leaks of the US proposal to Iran suggested an enrichment compromise, contradicted by Trump. * Trump’s metal tariffs wil...
GULF WEEKLY: Aramco issues bonds, Oman records Q1 deficit, Fitch expects mild Dubai property correction
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 May 2025 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped to $62 amidst reports that OPEC+ could boost July output by more than 0.4m b/d. * Trump said Iran talks are going well and warned Israel not to strike. There could be an interim deal. * Saudi Arabia conducted a...
GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait plans huge debt issuances, Gulf airlines achieve record profits, Bahrain may import Russian LNG
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 May 2025 · 2 responses
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped to $64 on tariff worries, rising inventories and OPEC+ taper speculation. * A fifth round of US-Iran talks is underway, but Khamenei downplayed the prospects. * NEOM’s green hydrogen plant, opening next year, i...
GULF WEEKLY: Trump tours GCC, PIF launches AI champion, oil eases on talk of an Iran deal, Mumtalakat achieves record profit
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 May 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil prices eased back to $64 after Trump said on Thursday that an Iran deal might be close. * April data showed only a small rise in OPEC+ V8 output and continued Kazakh overproduction. * The White House counted $1trn in ...