GULF COUNTRIES
Analyst
Justin Alexander
Former Economic Advisor, Qatar Finance MinistryDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
GULF WEEKLY: Fitch turns positive on Oman, CI upgrades KSA, Gulf states cut interest rates, Dubai awards metro expansion
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Dec 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states mainly cut rates by -25bp, but Kuwait held steady, and Qatar cut by an extra -5bp. * An IMF policy report for the GCC recommended fiscal consolidation and structural reforms. * GCC debt capital markets crossed...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi World Cup, UAE to tax multinationals 15%, Oman may postpone income tax, Saudi and Qatar GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Dec 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC again reduced its 2024-25 oil demand forecasts, which are still far higher than the IEA. * The UAE has reportedly sharply cut oil allocations for Q1, possibly to comply with its quota. * Britain's PM visited UAE and ...
Syria post-Assad: outlook and implications for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Dec 2024 · 1 response
* While there is plenty to worry about, Syrians are celebrating the end of a brutal regime. * HTS has become the dominant force in much of Syria, but the balance with other groups is unclear. * HTS made encouraging pronouncements, including about minorities, women and non-retribution. * The gr...
GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ slows its taper, PMIs surge in KSA and Kuwait, Syrian rebels capture Aleppo and Hama
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Dec 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ reduced 2025 taper plans by 1m b/d and extended cuts into 2026, but the market shrugged. * Participating GCC states will increase output in 2025 by a third of what was previously planned. * Gulf leaders met in Kuwai...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi budget, KSA and RAK upgraded, UAE Q2 GDP, Lebanon ceasefire
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Nov 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The OPEC+ meeting was postponed until Thursday, suggesting differences on tapering cuts. * Trump’s Treasury Secretary pick was well received by markets, but wants to hike oil by 3m b/d. * The Saudi budget sees tax revenue...
SAUDI ARABIA: Moody’s upgrades back to Aa3 and above Kuwait
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Nov 2024
Moody's upgraded Saudi Arabia to Aa3 due to progress in economic diversification and a track record of good fiscal governance. This is its highest rating since 2016 and, for the first time, it is rated more highly than Kuwait, despite much weaker per citizen wealth metrics.
GULF WEEKLY: KSA investment licenses boom, Aramco plans more debt, UAE equity markets surpass $1trn, ICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 22 Nov 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude has recovered to $74 as the market weighs geopolitical risks and Chinese demand. * Trump nominated fracking pioneer Chris Wright as Energy Secretary and met with PIF’s chairman. * KSA issued a record number of...
GULF WEEKLY: Qatar and Kuwait replace sovereign wealth chiefs, Neom replaces CEO, Dubai GDP steady in Q2, Qatar pauses Gaza mediation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Nov 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC revised down its oil demand forecasts for a fourth month, but they still look high. * The UK-GCC free trade agreement is reportedly nearing agreement after two years of talks. * Neom replaced its CEO amidst continued...
Webinar replay: GCC 2025 Outlook - Oil, debt, diversification and Trump
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Nov 2024
What are the GCC's views on the outlook for oil and OPEC+'s strategy? What are the trends in economic diversification, including Saudi Vision 2030? How could the regional conflict impact the Gulf states? Will relations with the US change under the next president? Visit our calendar page to watch ...