GULF COUNTRIES
Analyst
Justin Alexander
Former Economic Advisor, Qatar Finance MinistryDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops, Kuwait’s non-oil growth rises, Hamas's leader killed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Oct 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude dipped as low as $72 on reduced concerns that Israel might strike Iranian oil facilities, and amidst indicators of weaker demand in China. * The first EU-GCC summit was held in Brussels, with participants inclu...
GULF WEEKLY: Oil remains elevated over Iran strike fears, Bahrain’s GDP growth slows in Q2, Wynn receives gambling license in UAE
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Oct 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude held at around $78 amidst ongoing conflict concerns. * Iran reportedly warned Gulf states of retribution if they facilitate an Israeli attack. * UK investments: PIF buys 40% of Selfridges, ADIA writes down 10%...
GULF WEEKLY: Oil spikes with Iran-Israel conflict, Saudi fiscal forecasts revised, Oman gets another rating upgrade, Abu Dhabi’s GDP rebounds in Q2
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Oct 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has spiked by 9% to $78 amidst concerns about a widening Israel-Iran conflict. * Saudi Arabia revised down growth and fiscal forecasts, seeing deficits of -2.8% of GDP in 2024-27. * The Saudi PMI rebounded to the high...
SAUDI ARABIA: Deficit projections widen in pre-budget statement
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Oct 2024 · 2 responses
The Ministry of Finance has revised up its projection for expenditure this year, driven by social benefits and goods & services, and in turn sees the deficit widening to -2.9% of GDP. It also sees wider deficits in subsequent years, averaging -2.7% of GDP in 2025-27.
Markets shrug at the Lebanon conflict, but are underestimating the risks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Sep 2024
Markets have shrugged off the risks from the conflict in Lebanon, including the killing of Hezbollah's leader and a pending ground invasion. Hezbollah may not be as weakened as thought and, although Iran has shown restraint until now, this may be a step too far. Lots of human suffering is ahead. ...
GULF WEEKLY: Aramco and ADQ issue debt, Gulf leaders attend UN, Oman has a strong Q2 GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Sep 2024 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped as the market offset returning Libyan and Saudi supply against China’s stimulus plans. * OPEC’s long-term demand forecasts were hiked and it sees 18m b/d demand growth by 2050. * Aramco issued $3bn in sukuk, li...
Implications of the US election for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Sep 2024
This article provides an overview of the state of the race as of today (mainly of interest for those outside the US) and considers how the US administration that governs in 2025-28 might impact the region, economically and politically, and how the Gulf states view Trump and Harris and are prepari...
GULF WEEKLY: UAE fiscal surplus soars, UAE advances trade and AI deals, Saudi-Bahrain aluminum partnership considered, Israel detonates Hezbollah comms devices
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Sep 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Most Gulf states cut interest rates by -50bp, though Qatar did -55 and Kuwait -25. * Brent crude rose by 4% to a three-week high of $74 on the back of broad market optimism. * UK and EU officials visited the GCC to advanc...
GULF WEEKLY: OPEC cuts oil demand forecast, Saudi non-oil GDP rises, Oman’s OQ to IPO upstream subsidiary, Bahrain sells pipeline stake
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Sep 2024
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC and IEA cut oil demand forecasts, and Brent briefly fell below $70 for the first time since 2021. * The GCC held dialogues with China and India and began free trade talks with Indonesia. * Saudi non-oil Q2 GDP grew a...