GULF COUNTRIES
Analyst
Justin Alexander
Former Economic Advisor, Qatar Finance MinistryDatabanks
Events
Recent Country Insights
GULF WEEKLY: Oil rebounds on Russian sanctions, US & Qatar warn EU over LNG, Kuwait portfolio flows spike in Q2
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Oct 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has rebounded to nearly $67 as a result of new US and EU sanctions on Russia. * The IMF hiked its GCC oil GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 4.2% and for non-oil to 3.8%. * Saudi gigaproject awards so far this year have ...
GULF WEEKLY: Oil at a 5-year low, Dubai's strong H1 fiscal surplus, Gaza ceasefire holds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Oct 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil had its worst week since 2020, touching $60 amidst oversupply and demand concerns. * OPEC still sees a balanced market in 2026, whereas the IEA forecasts nearly 4m b/d of oversupply. * The IMF revised up growth foreca...
GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ hikes by less than expected, US approves AI chips exports, Trump’s Gaza ceasefire begins
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Oct 2025 · 1 response
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ hiked production for November by 137k b/d, less than had been expected by the market. * There was a record $80bn in sukuk issuance in Q3, much of it from the GCC. * Saudi Arabia’s PMI rebounded in September, and its...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi revises up deficit projection, Kuwait and Bahrain issue bonds, Trump announces Gaza plan and pledges to defend Qatar
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Oct 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude dropped by -9% to $64, a four-month low, as another OPEC+ hike is expected. * Saudi Arabia estimates its fiscal deficit will be -5.3% of GDP this year, more than double the budget. * Its fiscal projections see...
BAHRAIN: Deficit expands in H1 ahead of sukuk issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 30 Sep 2025
It's a busy time for Gulf sovereign bond issuance, with $3bn from Abu Dhabi last week, $11.25bn from Kuwait today (see this note) and another UAE emirate expected to issue soon. Next up is Bahrain, with its second issuance of the year, following its $2.5bn bond/sukuk in May. There is some importa...
KUWAIT markets its first dollar bonds since 2017
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Sep 2025
As Kuwait sells its first Eurobonds since 2017, we review its prospectus and recent fiscal trends. The prospectus, unfortunately, has no new data and does not provide clarification on key topics such as the size of the General Reserve Fund. However, investors may not worry too much about the lack...
GULF WEEKLY: Abu Dhabi bonds, Riyadh rents frozen, Qatar & Oman GDP, UK & France recognize Palestine
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 Sep 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: *Brent rebounded to $70 on concerns about Russian exports, amidst Ukrainian drone strikes. *Gulf leaders addressed the UN and discussed a new US Gaza plan with Trump. *Ten more countries, including the UK and France, recogn...
GULF WEEKLY: All mirror Fed cuts, Saudi revises inflation basket, Kuwait's population declines
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Sep 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf central banks all mirrored the US’s -25bp interest rate cut. * The IEA warned that annual field decline is higher than previously estimated, about -5.5m b/d. * Saudi Arabia revised its inflation basket, lifting the w...
GULF WEEKLY: Allies rally around Qatar, OPEC+ hikes production, UAE posts H1 fiscal surplus
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Sep 2025
A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose despite the decision by OPEC+ to begin tapering the May 2023 voluntary cuts. * Revised compensation plans from Kazakhstan postpone its cuts for overproduction until 2026. * An IMF study found that FDI in the GCC ...