INDIA
Analyst
Radhika Pandey
Senior Fellow, National Institute for Public Finance and PolicyDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
The outlook for 2024 is subdued
INDIA · Report · 27 Mar 2024
The economy slowed from the middle of 2022 onward. In this report, we examine three important drivers of demand: exports, investment and credit. Export growth in 2024 is likely to be weak, investment during 2024 is likely to be subdued, and credit growth in 2024 may slow somewhat. Hence, we expec...
An air pocket in the process of financial regulation
INDIA · Report · 20 Feb 2024
There was much hope for the "fintech revolution" in India, which could potentially break with the traditions of central planning and government-led control of products and processes. A series of factors have come together to diminish these possibilities. In recent weeks, developments in financial...
The promise of export-led growth
INDIA · Report · 16 Jan 2024
Many, if not most, global corporations have embarked on producing software, back office and R&D in India. There is considerable skill and capability in global corporations and domestically in performing these three roles in India. There was a remarkable streak of growth in these fields from 2...
The trajectory of listed vs. unlisted companies—the gap in performance has subsided
INDIA · Report · 11 Dec 2023
Over longer time horizons, there was a broad parity between the performance of listed and unlisted companies. However, in 2012, a gap opened up between the two, with superior performance by the unlisted firms. We review the period from 2012/13 to 2022/23, using large datasets of listed and unlist...
A puzzling picture in the economy
INDIA · Report · 24 Nov 2023
We see remarkable strength in the household data—employment and consumer sentiment—over the past year. Alongside this, private investment is showing strong gains, which is a measure of the optimism of private firms, and also augments the demand side. However, this is not yet a broad-based exp...
Inclusion in the J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Index
INDIA · Report · 01 Nov 2023
In 2024-25, for a period of 10 months, global index funds will bring $24 billion into a group of “Fully Accessible Route” (“FAR”)-designated Indian government bonds. This flow will be material when compared with the flow of government borrowing of that period. Beyond that, this policy change i...
Economics and the problems of India's foreign policy
INDIA · Report · 22 Sep 2023
Foreign policy has traditionally not been particularly important in thinking about India's economics. This has changed, however, as (a) the most important engine of Indian growth is now services exports; and (b) the world of the second globalization, of unrestrained access for poor countries into...
Is there a big leap in electronics exports?
INDIA · Report · 22 Aug 2023
Most global firms want to do less in China. This has created possibilities for the global supply chain to shift away from China. This has raised hope for India in a “China+1” sourcing strategy for many global corporations. In the aggregate, the gains in FDI or merchandise exports are small. In...
Difficulties after restoring pre-pandemic conditions
INDIA · Report · 10 Jul 2023
We are now able to assemble a picture of the post-pandemic recovery based on four business cycle indicators: listed company net sales, listed company operating profit, exports and bank credit. At first, there was a powerful post-pandemic recovery, but after February/March 2022, there has been a s...