INDIA
Analyst
Radhika Pandey
Senior Fellow, National Institute for Public Finance and PolicyDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
The new ways of services exports
INDIA · Report · 01 Oct 2024
The most important success of the Indian economy lies in IT and in a wide array of services exports enabled by IT. This field began with global firms contracting out to specialized IT services firms that had specialized abilities in operating in India. There is now an increasing shift to "Global ...
A review of the economy as the BJP begins its third term
INDIA · Report · 24 Jul 2024
The BJP has begun its third term, and this is a good time to review the overall state of the economy. There are important debates taking place, with concerns about measurement of GDP and employment as seen in the official data. We are able to pull together an internally consistent picture drawing...
Parsing the general elections
INDIA · Report · 04 Jun 2024
The BJP was expected to solidly win the elections. They have emerged as the largest single party but with a modest showing. They are about 30 to 40 seats short of a majority coalition. These results give new life to opposition parties. The successful coalition, which is likely to be led by BJP, w...
A new phase in the exchange rate regime
INDIA · Report · 30 May 2024
The INR exchange rate regime shifted into reduced flexibility in 2014. It is now possible to look back at the period from October 2022, and we see a new phase, with a tightly managed exchange rate and an almost fixed USD/INR exchange rate. It is not fully clear how this was implemented. The reduc...
The outlook for 2024 is subdued
INDIA · Report · 27 Mar 2024
The economy slowed from the middle of 2022 onward. In this report, we examine three important drivers of demand: exports, investment and credit. Export growth in 2024 is likely to be weak, investment during 2024 is likely to be subdued, and credit growth in 2024 may slow somewhat. Hence, we expec...
An air pocket in the process of financial regulation
INDIA · Report · 20 Feb 2024
There was much hope for the "fintech revolution" in India, which could potentially break with the traditions of central planning and government-led control of products and processes. A series of factors have come together to diminish these possibilities. In recent weeks, developments in financial...
The promise of export-led growth
INDIA · Report · 16 Jan 2024
Many, if not most, global corporations have embarked on producing software, back office and R&D in India. There is considerable skill and capability in global corporations and domestically in performing these three roles in India. There was a remarkable streak of growth in these fields from 2...
The trajectory of listed vs. unlisted companies—the gap in performance has subsided
INDIA · Report · 11 Dec 2023
Over longer time horizons, there was a broad parity between the performance of listed and unlisted companies. However, in 2012, a gap opened up between the two, with superior performance by the unlisted firms. We review the period from 2012/13 to 2022/23, using large datasets of listed and unlist...
A puzzling picture in the economy
INDIA · Report · 24 Nov 2023
We see remarkable strength in the household data—employment and consumer sentiment—over the past year. Alongside this, private investment is showing strong gains, which is a measure of the optimism of private firms, and also augments the demand side. However, this is not yet a broad-based exp...