Analyst

Radhika Pandey
Senior Fellow, National Institute for Public Finance and Policy

Databanks

Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

Parsing the general elections
INDIA · Report · 04 Jun 2024

The BJP was expected to solidly win the elections. They have emerged as the largest single party but with a modest showing. They are about 30 to 40 seats short of a majority coalition. These results give new life to opposition parties. The successful coalition, which is likely to be led by BJP, w...

A new phase in the exchange rate regime
INDIA · Report · 30 May 2024

The INR exchange rate regime shifted into reduced flexibility in 2014. It is now possible to look back at the period from October 2022, and we see a new phase, with a tightly managed exchange rate and an almost fixed USD/INR exchange rate. It is not fully clear how this was implemented. The reduc...

The outlook for 2024 is subdued
INDIA · Report · 27 Mar 2024

The economy slowed from the middle of 2022 onward. In this report, we examine three important drivers of demand: exports, investment and credit. Export growth in 2024 is likely to be weak, investment during 2024 is likely to be subdued, and credit growth in 2024 may slow somewhat. Hence, we expec...

An air pocket in the process of financial regulation
INDIA · Report · 20 Feb 2024

There was much hope for the "fintech revolution" in India, which could potentially break with the traditions of central planning and government-led control of products and processes. A series of factors have come together to diminish these possibilities. In recent weeks, developments in financial...

The promise of export-led growth
INDIA · Report · 16 Jan 2024

Many, if not most, global corporations have embarked on producing software, back office and R&D in India. There is considerable skill and capability in global corporations and domestically in performing these three roles in India. There was a remarkable streak of growth in these fields from 2...

The trajectory of listed vs. unlisted companies—the gap in performance has subsided
INDIA · Report · 11 Dec 2023

Over longer time horizons, there was a broad parity between the performance of listed and unlisted companies. However, in 2012, a gap opened up between the two, with superior performance by the unlisted firms. We review the period from 2012/13 to 2022/23, using large datasets of listed and unlist...

A puzzling picture in the economy
INDIA · Report · 24 Nov 2023

We see remarkable strength in the household data—employment and consumer sentiment—over the past year. Alongside this, private investment is showing strong gains, which is a measure of the optimism of private firms, and also augments the demand side. However, this is not yet a broad-based exp...

Inclusion in the J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Index
INDIA · Report · 01 Nov 2023

In 2024-25, for a period of 10 months, global index funds will bring $24 billion into a group of “Fully Accessible Route” (“FAR”)-designated Indian government bonds. This flow will be material when compared with the flow of government borrowing of that period. Beyond that, this policy change i...

Economics and the problems of India's foreign policy
INDIA · Report · 22 Sep 2023

Foreign policy has traditionally not been particularly important in thinking about India's economics. This has changed, however, as (a) the most important engine of Indian growth is now services exports; and (b) the world of the second globalization, of unrestrained access for poor countries into...

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