RUSSIA ECONOMICS
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
GDP y-o-y growth slows in 3Q24, dragged by agriculture and construction
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Nov 2024
Rosstat published its flash 3Q24 GDP growth flash estimate, and it appeared that economic growth slowed as it posted a mere 3.1% y-o-y as a preliminary figure. So far, Rosstat has not published any other 3Q24 GDP data, such as the nominal number or m-o-m growth (including seasonally adjusted). It...
Russian macro: In search of a new normal
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 08 Nov 2024
In 9M24 the Russian economy continued to expand, albeit with some deceleration in recent months. However, in 2024 in total it may grow slightly faster amid a low base in 1Q23. In the currently evolved geopolitical reality, the Russian government has massively increased budgetary spending, which h...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Nov 2024
Interest rates keep rising, and it happens not only due to rising inflation and the key rate hikes but also due to some regulatory measures. One problem is associated with banks’ need to comply with liquidity coverage ratio (LCR), as earlier this year, the CBR started to remove “reliefs” for the ...
The economy keeps growing amid soaring domestic demand and overheating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Nov 2024
Rosstat reported that in 9M24, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) was up by 4.9% y-o-y. It grew by 3.0% in September and posted clear signs of a deceleration. The latter looks organic amid a high base in 2H23. Industrial output ex...
The CBR hikes the key rate by 200 bps as inflation remains high
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2024
Last Friday, the Central Bank hiked the key rate to 21%, well above market expectations. In October, inflation y-o-y will likely be about the same as in September, i.e., 8.6% or slightly higher. Note that inflation fell to low single-digit levels in 1H23 but has accelerated since then, driven by ...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Oct 2024
After the end-September rally, the FX market recently remained relatively stable. The ruble hovers around USD/RUB 97 level and looks slightly undervalued. Technically, it may moderately appreciate in the coming weeks, especially if the CBR decides to raise the key rate. However, the budgetary spe...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Oct 2024
The ruble weakened against the dollar in the past couple of weeks, and since Sep 25, it has lost about 3.5% of its value. On the one hand, the settlement for imports has more or less normalized in September, which fuelled demand for FX. On the other hand, the dollar strengthened globally, and som...
Economic growth gradually decelerates in August
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2024
Rosstat reported that in 8M24, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) was up by 5.2% y-o-y. In August alone, it increased by a mere 1.7%. This sharp deceleration was mainly caused by agriculture, as it was down y-o-y by 14.7% and 3.2%...
Russian macro: The 2025 budget looks reasonable but the 2024 amendments puzzle investors
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Oct 2024
In recent days, the Russian government submitted to the State Duma the final draft of a three-year rolling budget (2025-2027) that at a glance looked quite peculiar, although that is not unusual. As macroeconomic growth forecasts supporting the budgetary planning were usually conservative, while ...