RUSSIA ECONOMICS
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Jun 2026
The FX market saw sharp swings in early June, with the exchange rate dropping nearly 5% after the Finance Ministry announced it was boosting hard currency purchases under the fiscal rule from R110 bln in May to R208 bln in June. The ruble’s slide didn’t last long though, as it regained most of it...
Economic trends look unimpressive but the trajectory is unclear
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Jun 2026
We recently noted that official industrial statistics have been hard to use since the start of this year, as the time series for industry and its segments seems to mix two different base years. Starting in 2026, Rosstat began using 2023 fixed prices, while until 2025 it used 2018 fixed prices and...
Russian macro: The 4M26 industrial statistics suggests economic growth remains subdued
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jun 2026
Rosstat announced that in 4M26, industrial output rose 0.7% y-o-y, up from 0.3% in the first quarter, with April alone posting a 1.9% y-o-y increase. Seasonally adjusted figures showed a 0.3% m-o-m gain in April. Mining was up 0.5% y-o-y in 4M26, while manufacturing grew by 3.2%. Monthly producti...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 May 2026
Recent windfalls from oil exports have kept the USD/RUB near the 70 mark over the past two weeks. The market expects the ruble-denominated equivalent of FX purchases for the National Wealth Fund to rise in June to R250-300 bln from R110 bln in May, which could weaken the ruble by 2-3%. In the lon...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 May 2026
About a week ago, the Ministry of Finance announced that from May 8 to June 4 it would allocate R110 billion from oil-and-gas revenues to buy FX and gold on the domestic market, in line with the fiscal rule. The Government had originally planned to return to the market in July, but moved the date...
Tax collection improves in April, and upward revisions of expenditures are likely
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 May 2026
The Ministry of Finance reported that in 4M26, total federal budget revenues reached RUB11.7 trln having fallen y-o-y by 4.5%. The collected amount accounted for 29.9% of the yearly plan and was behind schedule for this period. Oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues increased in April, but the amount was not...
Russian macro: the economy at a crossroad
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 04 May 2026
In earlier reports, we pointed out that this year’s economic data look a bit puzzling, mainly because of ongoing revisions to historical figures. These updates shift short-term growth patterns, as the adjusted m-o-m numbers from last year heavily influence this year’s y-o-y results. Monthly busin...
Economic growth seemingly accelerated in March, but was accompanied by statistical quirks
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2026
Yesterday, Rosstat reported that the aggregate output of the five basic sectors, such as industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade, declined y-o-y by 0.7% in 1Q26. However, in March alone it was up by 2.2% and seemingly pointed to a significant improvement in the economic sit...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2026
Last Friday, the CBR cut the key rate by 50 bps to 14.5%. The decision was widely expected as inflation continued to decelerate in recent weeks, pulling inflation expectations down. Simultaneously, the regulator reiterated the forecast for GDP growth in 2026 (0.5-1.5%) and offered a narrower rang...