RUSSIA ECONOMICS
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Jan 2025
The ruble appreciated by 3.6% since the start of the year despite the drop in oil prices. The latter resulted from the market reaction to some of Mr. Trump’s statements, which called for OPEC to lower energy prices. In our view, the main reason for the ruble to strengthen was the repatriation of ...
Russian macro: muddling through in a stormy external environment
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jan 2025
Rosstat will soon publish the economic statistics for full-year 2024, and after that it will be a good time to have a fresh look at Russia’s economic growth perspectives in 2025 and beyond. At the same time, the recent statistical releases from the CBR and Minfin have already hinted at changes in...
Federal budget deficit in December widened as expected, while the current account unexpectedly turned red
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Jan 2025
The Ministry of Finance reported that in 2024, as a whole, the federal budget was in deficit of about RUB3.5 trln, which should be below 1.8% of GDP, i.e., a mere percentage of GDP. Revenues and expenditures looked close to what the government targeted, albeit actual revenues appeared below the a...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025
A new wave of US sanctions was focused on the energy sector and caused new fears that the inflow of hard currency into Russia may decrease. As a result, the demand for hard currency increased, and the ruble moved well above USD/RUB 100 versus USD/RUB 99 at the end of 2024 (at the time of writing ...
Economic growth remains decent in 11M24, set to decelerate in 2025
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Jan 2025
Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) grew y-o-y by 4.6% and 3.7% in 11M24 and November alone. Economic growth expectedly decelerates, though in 2025 it may still be higher than in 2023, but below 4.0%. In 9M24,...
Industry keeps growing with no surprises
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Dec 2024
Rosstat recently reported that the Russian industrial output expanded by 4.3% y-o-y in 11M24, posting some y-o-y deceleration as in November alone, it grew by 3.7% y-o-y amid uneven last year’s base effects. Seasonally adjusted (by Rosstat) industrial output increased in November by 0.7% m-o-m, w...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Dec 2024
The FX market remained volatile, and in the past two weeks, the ruble fluctuated within the range from USD/RUB 99 to USD/RUB 106. Chances to see the ruble close to the upper boundary by the year-end are high. These developments fueled demand for bonds nominated in hard currency. Since the beginni...
Russian macro: GDP growth, external balance stable as settlements in national currencies gain importance
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Dec 2024
Rosstat recently provided additional color to its 3Q24 GDP growth flash estimate (3.1% y-o-y) published earlier, and the sectoral GDP production growth rates are now available. The 9M24 GDP increase was more impressive (4.1% y-o-y) than in 3Q24 alone. Rosstat also revealed that the seasonally adj...
Balance of payments: no surprise in 11M24 amid the economy’s overheating
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2024
The CBR published its flash estimate of the 11M24 balance of payments, and no major surprise was on the table. In 11M24, the current account surplus reached $57.4 bln as the trade balance widened to $118.6 bln. Exports accounted for $386.0 bln, while imports climbed to $267.5. In November alone, ...