RUSSIA ECONOMICS
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Russian macro: “Reality is not what it seems”
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Jul 2026
Rosstat recently released its usual monthly statistics for June and 1H26, with industrial data published last week. Around the same time, the CBR shared financial statistics as of July 1, including corporate and household credit figures. On Friday, July 26, the CBR cut the key rate by 25 bps to 1...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Jul 2026
Minfin has decided to delay all primary OFZ placements until “market conditions improve.” The situation might change in the second half of September, when the government is expected to present the 2027–29 budget draft, potentially easing concerns over the deficit and its inflationary impact in th...
Federal budget revenue collection improved in June but not enough
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Jul 2026
The Ministry of Finance released preliminary federal budget execution data for 1H26, showing non-oil-and-gas revenues jumping m-o-m by about one-third, largely due to some taxes being paid quarterly. Still, such a sharp m-o-m rise seemed unusual, as it’s often much more moderate. While this could...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Jul 2026
The FX market stayed volatile, with intraday swings of three to four rubles. Despite ongoing sell-offs in the securities market, the ruble gained slightly thanks to strong export earnings inflows. Adding to that, the CBR nearly halted its “mirroring” operations, i.e., buying hard currency, given ...
Russian macro: economic dichotomy hampers growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 06 Jul 2026
In our previous reports, we mentioned that some officially announced data appeared odd amid slowing economic growth. While there’s no doubt about the general trends — the overall economy seems unhealthy, even if some sectors are doing relatively well — the constant revision of inconsistent statis...
Economic performance is mixed across sectors, with trends still hard to pin down
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Jul 2026
Rosstat’s latest 1Q26 GDP data by end-use confirmed a 0.2% y-o-y drop, and in seasonally adjusted terms, output shrank by 0.7% Q-o-Q. National accounts are currently based on 2021 prices, and interestingly, seasonally adjusted figures show GDP as flat y-o-y, even slightly higher. Household consum...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Jun 2026
In recent weeks, the ruble shifted from the USD/RUB 70-72 range seen at the end of May and earlier this month to USD/RUB 74-76. This healthy correction came amid expectations and the actual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, oil prices fell, with Brent dropping from $95/bbl at the st...
CBR cuts the key rate by 25 bps, sees risks of rising inflation
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Jun 2026
The Central Bank of Russia cut the base rate by 25 bps to 14.25%, noting that while disinflation continues, it’s been uneven, with the latest weekly inflation reading above May’s weekly average. As of June 16, MTD inflation reached 0.38%, pushing YTD inflation to 3.68%. In May and April, monthly ...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Jun 2026
The FX market saw sharp swings in early June, with the exchange rate dropping nearly 5% after the Finance Ministry announced it was boosting hard currency purchases under the fiscal rule from R110 bln in May to R208 bln in June. The ruble’s slide didn’t last long though, as it regained most of it...