RUSSIA ECONOMICS
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Apr 2024
The FX market remains relatively stable despite rising oil prices. The Western sanctions, combined with the damage to some oil refineries from drone attacks, reduced the profitability of the oil companies. As a result, the supply of hard currency from their side remains subdued. Nevertheless, the...
Smooth federal budget performance in 1Q24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Apr 2024
Minfin reported that the 1Q24 federal budget revenues accounted for about R8.7 trln (24.9% of the annual plan set at nearly R35.1 trln). The figure looks decent, as in 2024, the revenue target exceeds last year’s actual revenue figure by 20.4%. In 1Q24, the government collected R2.9 trln of the o...
Economic performance remained decent in February
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 04 Apr 2024
Following a previous publication on the performance of the Russian industry in 2M24 (up by 6.6% y-o-y and by 8.5% y-o-y in February alone), Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation) grew in 2M24 by 7.8% y-o-y. In Februa...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Mar 2024
The main event in Russia during the last two weeks was the terrorist attack on the concert hall in the suburbs of Moscow, which led to a massive number of victims. Despite the unprecedented scale of the tragic event, the reaction of financial markets was moderate, as the ruble lost less than 1%, ...
Industry posts steady growth in 2M24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Mar 2024
Rosstat reported that in February and 2M24, the performance of the Russian industry looked not too bad, as the industrial output grew y-o-y by 8.5% and 6.6%. To some extent, faster y-o-y growth in February stemmed from additional working days (due to a leap year). However, it looks like it is not...
Russian macro: balance of payments to remain stable in 2024 as foreign trade flows evolve
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Mar 2024
The recent CBR statistics indicate that Russia’s current account remained steady in 2M24 amid relatively stable exports and imports. The trade surplus was wide enough to overlap the traditionally negative services and income balances. The spread between Brent and Urals reportedly narrowed in rece...
The federal budget remains in decent shape in 2M24
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024
The Ministry of Finance reported that in 2M24, the federal budget accumulated over R5 trln in revenues over R1.6 trln coming as oil-and-gas taxes and about R3.4 trln as the non-O&G ones). These amounts accounted for 14.3% of the annual plan in the case of total revenues and 14.1% and 14.5% in the...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024
The ruble recently fluctuated within a relatively wide range (R/$ 90-93), and these fluctuations were driven mainly by local factors rather than fundamental trends. According to the CBR statistics, sales of hard currency by top exporters decreased in February from $12.9 bln to $10.4 bln. The latt...
Russian macro: Early 2024 economic trends remain generally unchanged but hint at deceleration
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Mar 2024
Rosstat recently published the economic statistics for January, and the numbers confirmed that trends remain unchanged in general. For instance, the aggregate output in the basic sectors of the economy (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade) grew by 5.4% y-o-y last month, whi...