RUSSIA ECONOMICS
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Economic growth remains sluggish in July
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Sep 2026
Recent economic data came as no surprise. After Rosstat reported a 0.6% y-o-y GDP increase in 1H26, it noted that in July the combined output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) grew by 0.8% y-o-y, bringing growth for 7M26 to just 0.1% y-o-y....
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Sep 2026
The USD/RUB continued to slide in recent weeks, having surpassed the 87 mark and moving closer to 88. Generally the FX market entered a period of correction that followed months of an unhealthy appreciation of the currency amid increased oil prices and their high volatility The recent ruble depre...
Industrial production remains almost flat y-o-y
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Aug 2026
Recent industrial production statistics suggest the industry as a whole hasn’t grown much this year. Earlier, we noted that Rosstat surprisingly used two different base years for the same time series, which caused a big mismatch between y-o-y and m-o-m data. In its latest release, Rosstat revised...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 20 Aug 2026
The FX market’s reaction to the 14% surge in oil prices over the past two weeks, driven by renewed tensions between Iran and the US, was far from straightforward. The ruble fell about 5% during this time, likely due to increased capital outflows, including the non-repatriation of export earnings ...
Economic performance looked better in recent months
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2026
Recent economic and financial data indicate the Russian economy has been improving in recent months, though it’s still too early to celebrate. Rosstat’s preliminary estimate shows GDP grew by 1.3% y-o-y in 2Q26. Since GDP fell by 0.2% year-on-year in 1Q26, this means that in the first half of 202...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Aug 2026
The ruble has slipped over 3% in the past two weeks - a move that might seem healthy from a macroeconomic standpoint but feels less so on the ground. Several factors could explain this. Export revenues for Russian companies have probably dropped amid volatile oil prices and lower volumes of refin...
Russian macro: “Reality is not what it seems”
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Jul 2026
Rosstat recently released its usual monthly statistics for June and 1H26, with industrial data published last week. Around the same time, the CBR shared financial statistics as of July 1, including corporate and household credit figures. On Friday, July 26, the CBR cut the key rate by 25 bps to 1...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Jul 2026
Minfin has decided to delay all primary OFZ placements until “market conditions improve.” The situation might change in the second half of September, when the government is expected to present the 2027–29 budget draft, potentially easing concerns over the deficit and its inflationary impact in th...
Federal budget revenue collection improved in June but not enough
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Jul 2026
The Ministry of Finance released preliminary federal budget execution data for 1H26, showing non-oil-and-gas revenues jumping m-o-m by about one-third, largely due to some taxes being paid quarterly. Still, such a sharp m-o-m rise seemed unusual, as it’s often much more moderate. While this could...