RUSSIA ECONOMICS
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Oct 2025
The Russian market has been under strain due to rumors about the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine. Earlier hopes for resolving the military conflict and expectations of a rapid key rate reduction were significant drivers in recent months. However, both now seem unfounded, leaving the mark...
Economic growth continues to decelerate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2025
Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) showed lackluster performance with just 0.2% y-o-y growth in August and 0.8% in the first eight months of 2025. Many economic segments were sluggish during this period, thou...
Russian macro: budgetary policy to be thriftier
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Sep 2025
On September 29, the government released its revised 2026-2028 macroeconomic forecast and presented to the Duma a draft federal budget for the same period. While this year’s economic performance has been weak (aligning with the CBR's previous warnings), the government anticipates 1.0% GDP growth....
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2025
The fixed income market reacted negatively to CBR officials' comments following the decision to lower the key rate from 18% to 17% on September 12. Monetary authorities have highlighted fiscal policy risks and indicated a more cautious stance on further rate cuts. Consequently, long-term OFZ yiel...
Industry’s performance remains unimpressive in August
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2025
Although Rosstat reported a seasonally adjusted output increase of 0.7% m-o-m in August, this figure seems weak considering the contractions of 1.6% in June and 0.6% in July. For 8M25 and August alone, industry grew by 0.8% and 0.5% y-o-y, pointing to an overall growth of around 0.0% to 0.5% for ...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Sep 2025
The ruble's performance on the FX market has been a major talking point over the past couple of weeks, with its sudden 5.7% depreciation against the dollar since early September, hovering around USD/RUB 85 in recent days. Fundamentally, this isn't surprising, as the ruble remains as strong in rea...
The federal budget deficit is expected to surpass the revised target
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025
According to the Ministry of Finance's 8M25 budget execution statistics, total revenues increased by only 3.0% year-on-year, covering about 61.6% of the adjusted annual plan. The original plan projected oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues at R10.9 trln, but this was revised down to R8.3 trln. Due to a str...
Russian macro: With the economy persistently slowing, the CBR has to act
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Sep 2025
In our June macroeconomic forecast, we revised Russia's 2025 full year GDP growth outlook down to 2.0%, with a slightly better figure of 2.4% for next year, expecting a "muddling through" scenario. We noted that the growth model that emerged during the pandemic in 2020 and solidified amidst the 2...
The economy appears to be slowing down
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Sep 2025
Russia's recent w-o-w inflation data showed a continuously deflationary trend, with consumer prices falling by 0.08% in the week ending September 1. Combining this with prior weekly inflation data suggests that August experienced around 0.25% m-o-m deflation, potentially lowering y-o-y inflation ...