UKRAINE
Analysts
Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Former Advisor, State Property Fund
Dmytro Boyarchuk
Executive Director, CASE-UkraineDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
The final chapter for Russian gas transit through Ukraine?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Dec 2024
On January 1, 2025, the 5-year gas transit contract between Naftogaz and Gazprom is set to expire. Ukrainian authorities are resolute in their decision to end this unusual business arrangement with an aggressor actively seeking to destroy the country. Predictably, the move has sparked outrage fro...
Korean or Finland scenario for Ukraine? No Gordian knot solution in sight.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Dec 2024
Foreign Affairs recently published an excellent article titled 'A Pathway to Peace in Ukraine' by Samuel Charap. I would like to react to it. The comment by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that 'a ceasefire is a road to nowhere' aligns closely with the perspective Samuel Charap, a Distingu...
Financial stability report: signals of confidence amid war and uncertainty
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Dec 2024
If you’re looking for a bit of optimism about Ukraine, you should take a look at the year-end Financial Stability Report released by the NBU yesterday. The monetary authorities are exuding optimism about the financial health of the banking system, reporting that the NBU’s Financial Stress Index h...
Unless Gandalf casts a spell, peace prospects look dim
UKRAINE · Report · 17 Dec 2024
Two key questions are on the agenda: what U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will propose as a peace deal, and what the response will be if the proposed solution sacrifices Ukraine’s sovereignty. Any plan requiring Ukraine to recognize Russian-occupied territories or to compromise its sovereignty ...
Easing cycle ends: NBU raises prime rate by 0.5 ppt to 13.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Dec 2024
The NBU Board has raised the prime rate by 0.5 ppt to 13.5%, effective December 13, marking the end of the easing cycle that began in July 2023. The primary reason for this decision was the acceleration of consumer inflation, which exceeded the 10% threshold (+1.9% m/m and +11.2% y/y in November)...
Permission for limited long-range missile strikes vs. global security breakdown
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Nov 2024
On Sunday morning, November 17, we received an alert that nearly 17 Russian strategic bombers were in the air preparing to launch dozens of cruise missiles. Such a big number of strategic bombers approaching launch sites usually means that hypersonic ballistic missile Kynzhal carriers Mig-31 will...
Euphoria Over Trump’s Peace Promise Seems Premature
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Nov 2024
In early 2022, European leaders, as well as the U.S., assumed that the occupation of Ukraine was imminent. Germany's Minister of Finance, Christian Lindner, told the Ukrainian ambassador in Berlin that Russia would occupy Ukraine within hours. All embassies were evacuated from Kyiv in February 20...
Ukraine's Peace Prospects under a Trump Presidency: A View from Kyiv
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Nov 2024
Another sleepless night in Kyiv, with air alerts lasting over 8 hours. For more than two months, nearly every night has been interrupted, with only rare exceptions. It feels like a deliberate tactic, KGB-style, to exhaust people by depriving them of sleep. After all, the chief barbarian from the ...
Prime rate holds at 13.0%; NBU signals readiness for potential rate hike
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Nov 2024
On October 31st, the NBU Board, as anticipated, kept the prime rate steady at 13.0% for the third consecutive time. With inflation accelerating (+1.5% m/m and +8.6% y/y in September) and the challenges of a third winter under missile and drone strikes, the NBU has little choice but to remain in a...