UKRAINE
Analysts
Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Former Advisor, State Property Fund
Dmytro Boyarchuk
Executive Director, CASE-UkraineDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Inflation report: NBU sidesteps discussion on 2025’s potential defining event
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Feb 2025
The NBU released its latest inflation report last Friday and held an expert discussion on the document today. The best way to describe the report would be ‘indistinct.’ The inflation forecast was revised upward to +8.4% YTD in 2025 (from the previously projected 6.9%), while the GDP growth foreca...
NBU Raises Prime Rate to 14.5%, Signals Further Hikes Ahead
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jan 2025
The NBU Board has raised the prime rate again by 1.0 ppt to 14.5%, effective January 24. The 'working' rates have also been adjusted: the overnight deposit certificate rate increased to 14.5% (from 13.5%), the three-month deposit certificate rate rose to 17.0% (from 16.0%), and the refinancing ra...
Trump slaps Putin in the face with a proposal to get a favor
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jan 2025
That’s a nice way to kick off negotiations. Whether intentionally or not, Donald Trump’s post landed a direct blow to the very core of Russist ideology. For years, Russian ruler Vladimir Putin has cultivated a "victory cult" in Russian society, glorifying May 9th, Victory Day, and claiming public...
The fog of war: understanding broader battlefield realities
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Jan 2025
On the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration, let me provide an overview of the current stance on the battlefield in Ukraine to offer a better picture of where we stand and the position from which the announced negotiations might commence. I am not a military expert—I’ve said that many times. What I...
Fresh polls: sentiments on territorial concessions evolve amid peace deal discourse
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Jan 2025
The world is abuzz with discussions about President-elect Donald Trump's territorial claims on Greenland and Canada. Meanwhile, I’d like to share some new poll results reflecting Ukrainian sentiments, which seem particularly significant as we approach the upcoming negotiations after January 20. F...
A train with waste paper: Zelenskiy speaks plainly on security guarantees in Lex Fridman interview
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Jan 2025
Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s interview with Lex Fridman is in the spotlight. The Ukrainian president may have his flaws, but there’s no denying his exceptional communication skills. His conversation with Lex Fridman was a significant media effort aimed at engaging Western audiences. Even after three yea...
The final chapter for Russian gas transit through Ukraine?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Dec 2024
On January 1, 2025, the 5-year gas transit contract between Naftogaz and Gazprom is set to expire. Ukrainian authorities are resolute in their decision to end this unusual business arrangement with an aggressor actively seeking to destroy the country. Predictably, the move has sparked outrage fro...
Korean or Finland scenario for Ukraine? No Gordian knot solution in sight.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Dec 2024
Foreign Affairs recently published an excellent article titled 'A Pathway to Peace in Ukraine' by Samuel Charap. I would like to react to it. The comment by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that 'a ceasefire is a road to nowhere' aligns closely with the perspective Samuel Charap, a Distingu...
Financial stability report: signals of confidence amid war and uncertainty
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Dec 2024
If you’re looking for a bit of optimism about Ukraine, you should take a look at the year-end Financial Stability Report released by the NBU yesterday. The monetary authorities are exuding optimism about the financial health of the banking system, reporting that the NBU’s Financial Stress Index h...