Analysts

Ruth Krivoy
Former Central Bank President
Tamara Herrera
Former Advisor, Banking Industry Association

Databanks

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Recent Country Insights

Consequences of a failed policy
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 25 Nov 2024

The Venezuelan authorities’ strategy of curbing inflation by pegging the official exchange rate by mid-October had opened up a gap between the official and parallel rates so wide that it forced the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) to loosen the official rate. Subsequently, inflation began accelera...

Time will tell
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Nov 2024

Trump's view of the world is the same as it was during the years of his first presidency. He also maintains his assertively unilateralist and transactional approach to foreign policy. Venezuela is not high on his international agenda. It enters it tangentially because of the deportation of mig...

Central bank adopts a (de facto) crawling peg
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Nov 2024

We have revised up our inflation and exchange rate projections following the October breakdown of the exchange rate peg and the subsequent volatility and uncertainty in the foreign exchange market. We foresee that the central bank will have the necessary resources to sustain a gradual devaluat...

On pause
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Oct 2024

Nicolás Maduro, who is hugely unpopular, is heading toward his January 10th swearing-in ceremony for a third presidential term guided by two strategic objectives: to ensure cohesion within his ruling group and to build renewed "legitimacy" via tighter institutional control. He counts on repressio...

The exchange rate anchor finally gave in
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Oct 2024

On Friday, October 11, the unsustainability of the policy of anchoring the official exchange rate materialized. The BCV sold $30 million in an “auction” in which it gave signals about the price it was looking for and took the rate to 39.75 bolivars per dollar, marking an increase of 3 percent in ...

A complex landscape
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 09 Oct 2024 · 1 response

The 2024-2025 outlook is strongly influenced by the July 28, 2024 events. They raised the risk of diplomatic and economic isolation, imposed a brake on growth and disinflation, and increased the likelihood of an exchange rate crisis that might derail stabilization policy. Avoiding this course req...

New uncertainty
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Oct 2024

Venezuela is in limbo and not. It is in limbo because the National Electoral Council has not published the results of our past elections in accordance with the law, and the Supreme Court's ruling designating Nicolás Maduro the victor was illegal. This awarded Maduro with power but no legitimacy a...

Oil revenues will set the tone
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Sep 2024

Prior to July 28, inflation had been contained thanks to tight control over the official exchange rate, strong competition, and highly price-elastic consumer demand. In August, however, the inflation rate soared to 1.4 percent, double July’s 0.7-percent rate. We attribute this acceleration to a s...

Immune to everything?
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Aug 2024

The Supreme Court of Justice has validated the results of Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election that had been announced by the National Electoral Council. The formality was carried out amidst a wave of harsh repression that sent the message that those in the upper echelons of government have ...

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