VENEZUELA
Analysts
Ruth Krivoy
Former Central Bank President
Tamara Herrera
Former Advisor, Banking Industry AssociationDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
It’s back
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Apr 2025
We foresee a return to triple-digit annual inflation in 2025 and identify several upside risks to our forecast numbers: U.S. oil sanctions policy, the effect of secondary tariffs to be applied to countries that buy Venezuelan oil, falling oil prices, adjustment measures adopted under the Economic...
Sanctions tighten rapidly
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Apr 2025
Over the last few days, news regarding the Trump administration's sanctions on Venezuelan oil has pointed to an unprecedented tightening of the sanctions framework, which will substantially impact the country's oil revenues. The revocation of licenses and comfort letters, the March 24 Executiv...
Modus vivendi?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Mar 2025
The Trump administration’s top priority on Venezuela at the moment is to show its base that it is delivering on campaign promises regarding immigration. Its strategies are grounded in pragmatic, transactional exchanges—not in promoting democracy or economic freedoms. Florida’s Republican bas...
Mitigation or laissez-faire?
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Mar 2025
Inflation over the next two years depends on how willing the government will be to use non-reserve foreign assets to mitigate the effects of the recent negative revenue shock stemming from the revocation of General License 41a. In February 2025, the monthly inflation rate rose to 10 percent fr...
Sequels of a surprise revocation
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 12 Mar 2025
The unexpected revocation of General License 41 through General License 41a with only 30 days granted for winding down has turned what was already looking like a tough year into a decidedly awful one. The country will suffer a 24-percent drop ($4 billion) in oil exports in 2025, followed by anoth...
Are there behind the scenes negotiations?
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Mar 2025
U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Special Missions Richard Grenell says Trump does not aspire to a regime change in Venezuela, but Trump acceded to the aspirations of the hardline anti-Maduro in the US Congress by revoking General License 41 (LG 41), which governs Chevron's operations in Venezu...
Is maximum pressure back?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Feb 2025
Using his Truth Social account, President Trump announced on February 26 the revocation of the "Oil Transaction Agreement" signed by the Biden and Maduro governments on November 26, 2022. We assume he refers to General License 41 (GL 41), which allowed Chevron to resume activities in Venezuela un...
Uncertainty and weak consumption slow inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response
In January, the monthly inflation rate declined to 9 percent from its December 2024 rate of 13 percent. Seasonal factors, including a slow post-holiday restart of economic activity, weak sales, and strong tax payments, were drivers of this decline. An additional driver was the narrowing of the ex...
One for one … so far
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jan 2025 · 1 response
The political dynamics in Venezuela remain largely unchanged. Nicolás Maduro succeeded in being sworn in on January 10 but fell short of legitimizing his leadership. María Corina Machado bolstered her standing with a high-profile appearance at a January 9 rally that garnered extensive internation...