Analysts

Ruth Krivoy
Former Central Bank President
Tamara Herrera
Former Advisor, Banking Industry Association

Databanks

Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

Elections, oil pose large risks to forecast
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jul 2024

We hold to our single scenario for our 2024―2025 forecast period, during which the goal of reducing inflation will remain a priority regardless of how elections turn out, and the exchange rate will serve as the nominal anchor for the government’s fight against inflation. We forecast an annual ...

Turnout will be crucial
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jul 2024 · 1 response

At this stage, the electoral outlook hinges on how the government decides to neutralize Edmundo González Urrutia's lead in the polls and how those decisions will bear on voter turnout. We have formulated five scenarios for the next 30 days. In each, the government makes a distinct cost-benefit an...

Gamechanger
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 20 Jun 2024 · 1 response

The constitutional injunction filed on June 19 before the Supreme Court of Justice by Jaime Gonzalez, deputy of the National Assembly for a "loyal opposition party," will most likely lead to an indefinite suspension of the presidential election scheduled for July 28. The plaintiff requests an unn...

Disinflation (with risks)
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Jun 2024

In this piece, our outlook for 2024–2025, we hold to our single public policy scenario no matter who wins the July 28 presidential election. Regardless of that outcome, the Maduro government will be in power at least until January 2025 and will have incentives to hold to its stabilization course ...

Not one uncertainty but two
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 May 2024

In democratic elections, people experience uncertainty as to the outcome but certainty as to the process. In non-democratic elections, they experience the opposite. In Venezuela, we’re experiencing both. The electoral field is slanted because the Maduro government controls its shape and makes...

Serious harm, little gain
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 May 2024

The Law for the Protection of Social Security Pensions from Imperialist Blockade (LPP) went into effect on May 8, 2024, creating a new tax of up to 15% of formal and informal private employers' salary and non-wage bonus payments. The rate was set at 9% by presidential decree on May 16 . The new ...

New single scenario given GL 44a
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 May 2024

For the remainder of 2024, we present a single scenario now, one that reflects General License 44a (GL 44A) and the current economic policy framework. Inflation in this scenario decelerates to 70 percent from last year’s 190 percent, and the exchange rate moves up 36 percent to close 2024 at 53.3...

Clearer picture, with high risks
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Apr 2024

The majority opposition now has a unity candidate, but the path to the presidential election is strewn with obstacles, the final outcome uncertain. On April 19, just one day before the deadline, the Democratic Unitary Platform (Plataforma Unitaria Democrática, or PUD) with the support of all ...

Two signs of sanity
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Apr 2024

On April 20, after four weeks of agonizing negotiations, the opposition agreed on a single candidate supported by all the Unitary Platform (PUD) parties one day before the deadline for modifying endorsements to be visible on the ballot. The candidate is Edmundo González Urrutia, registered by PUD...

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