Analysts

Ruth Krivoy
Former Central Bank President
Tamara Herrera
Former Advisor, Banking Industry Association

Databanks

Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

Mitigation or laissez-faire?
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Mar 2025

Inflation over the next two years depends on how willing the government will be to use non-reserve foreign assets to mitigate the effects of the recent negative revenue shock stemming from the revocation of General License 41a. In February 2025, the monthly inflation rate rose to 10 percent fr...

Sequels of a surprise revocation
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 12 Mar 2025

The unexpected revocation of General License 41 through General License 41a with only 30 days granted for winding down has turned what was already looking like a tough year into a decidedly awful one. The country will suffer a 24-percent drop ($4 billion) in oil exports in 2025, followed by anoth...

Are there behind the scenes negotiations?
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Mar 2025

U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Special Missions Richard Grenell says Trump does not aspire to a regime change in Venezuela, but Trump acceded to the aspirations of the hardline anti-Maduro in the US Congress by revoking General License 41 (LG 41), which governs Chevron's operations in Venezu...

Is maximum pressure back?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Feb 2025

Using his Truth Social account, President Trump announced on February 26 the revocation of the "Oil Transaction Agreement" signed by the Biden and Maduro governments on November 26, 2022. We assume he refers to General License 41 (GL 41), which allowed Chevron to resume activities in Venezuela un...

Uncertainty and weak consumption slow inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response

In January, the monthly inflation rate declined to 9 percent from its December 2024 rate of 13 percent. Seasonal factors, including a slow post-holiday restart of economic activity, weak sales, and strong tax payments, were drivers of this decline. An additional driver was the narrowing of the ex...

One for one … so far
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jan 2025 · 1 response

The political dynamics in Venezuela remain largely unchanged. Nicolás Maduro succeeded in being sworn in on January 10 but fell short of legitimizing his leadership. María Corina Machado bolstered her standing with a high-profile appearance at a January 9 rally that garnered extensive internation...

Triple-digit inflation risk
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Jan 2025

Uncertainty as to politics and oil in 2025 will cause exchange rates and consumer prices to accelerate. We present two scenarios for 2025. Both assume that the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) will maintain a controlled crawling peg for the official exchange rate and leverage the increased dema...

Rule of (martial) law
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Dec 2024

En route to Maduro’s inauguration on 10 January 2025, the government is preparing for possible violence by passing draconian laws that legalize repression and virtually eliminate all space for public protest. It’s setting up permanent martial law. A recent exchange of moderating gestures betwe...

Inflation in 2025 will hinge on oil prices
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Dec 2024

Our inflation and exchange rate forecasts for the remainder of 2024 and for 2025 rest on the assumption that the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) will hold to its crawling peg regime that began in mid-October. It will not revert to an exchange rate peg. Restrictive fiscal and monetary policies ...

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