VENEZUELA
Analysts
Ruth Krivoy
Former Central Bank President
Tamara Herrera
Former Advisor, Banking Industry AssociationDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Silent concessions
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 May 2025
The exchange of concessions between the U.S. and Venezuelan governments signals a pragmatic understanding that prioritizes immediate mutual interests. Maduro seeks to consolidate his grip on power, while Trump (via Grenell) aims to secure gains on deportations and limit Chinese influence over Ven...
Sanctions on Venezuela become tighter and more opaque
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 May 2025
There will be no General License 41c. We infer that Chevron is now operating under private licenses, out of public view. The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) did not issue a general license clarifying the conditions for Chevron's continued presence in the country after the ex...
Imminent issuance of a new license for Chevron
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 May 2025
Imminent issuance of a new license for Chevron: Bloomberg reported a possible 60-day extension of General License 41b which is set to expire next Tuesday, May 27th. This license gave Chevron 60 days to conclude operations in the joint ventures where it is a minority partner of Pdvsa. Althou...
Risks of high inflation and recession escalate
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 May 2025
The worsening outlook for Venezuela’s export revenue is heightening the already high inflation and recession risks we have been warning about. The country is facing a severe negative shock from the convergence of sharply deteriorating global oil market conditions, tighter sanctions on Venezuel...
Keep arguing, guys
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Apr 2025
Nine months after the 2024 presidential elections, the Maduro government is consolidating its political position but faces the suspension of oil licenses and the secondary tariffs imposed by the United States on countries that purchase Venezuelan oil, already perturbing the fragile economic norma...
It’s back
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Apr 2025
We foresee a return to triple-digit annual inflation in 2025 and identify several upside risks to our forecast numbers: U.S. oil sanctions policy, the effect of secondary tariffs to be applied to countries that buy Venezuelan oil, falling oil prices, adjustment measures adopted under the Economic...
Sanctions tighten rapidly
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Apr 2025
Over the last few days, news regarding the Trump administration's sanctions on Venezuelan oil has pointed to an unprecedented tightening of the sanctions framework, which will substantially impact the country's oil revenues. The revocation of licenses and comfort letters, the March 24 Executiv...
Modus vivendi?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Mar 2025
The Trump administration’s top priority on Venezuela at the moment is to show its base that it is delivering on campaign promises regarding immigration. Its strategies are grounded in pragmatic, transactional exchanges—not in promoting democracy or economic freedoms. Florida’s Republican bas...
Mitigation or laissez-faire?
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Mar 2025
Inflation over the next two years depends on how willing the government will be to use non-reserve foreign assets to mitigate the effects of the recent negative revenue shock stemming from the revocation of General License 41a. In February 2025, the monthly inflation rate rose to 10 percent fr...