VENEZUELA
Analysts
Ruth Krivoy
Former Central Bank President
Tamara Herrera
Former Advisor, Banking Industry AssociationDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
External shock, internal fragility
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 03 Oct 2025
Venezuela’s economy is moving into dangerous territory: falling oil prices and a tougher U.S. foreign policy are fueling uncertainty and eroding the government’s ability to stabilize just as the depreciation–inflation spiral is gathering force. Chevron’s return to Venezuela (under the conditio...
The game goes on
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Sep 2025
Tensions between the Trump administration and the Venezuelan government remain in fragile equilibrium, with each side trying to force the other to break it. The U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean persists, but the pressure is now focused on narratives, demoralizing and isolating Maduro, an...
Inflation resurges
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Sep 2025
Venezuela has entered a new cycle of accelerating inflation. We revise up our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for the period from September 2025 through December 2026. The bolivar’s defense capacity is weakening on low international oil prices, limitations imposed by oil licenses, and a ...
Not more of the same
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Sep 2025 · 1 response
Trump is reshaping pressure on Venezuela under an anti-drug narrative, designating the "Cartel of the Suns" a terrorist organization and deploying naval forces to the Caribbean. The pressure on Maduro is evident, though the U.S. government is not speaking of regime change. The military deployment...
The new Chevron authorization has no impact on inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 19 Aug 2025
We revise our inflation forecasts upward from our July report due to the acceleration in the pace of official exchange rate depreciation starting in August, which we interpret as a new exchange rate policy stance by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV). Although Chevron was authorized by the U....
A New Era?
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jul 2025
The events of July 18, 2025 mark an important milestone in U.S.–Venezuela relations. Maximum pressure has given way to pragmatic understanding. The events of that day demonstrate that communication channels between the two governments are working, such that a complex and delicate negotiation ...
A private oil license follows the prisoner exchange
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Jul 2025 · 1 response
Only four days after the prisoner exchange took place, rumors about a new (probably private) license for Chevron, fueled by the news that Javier La Rosa, head of Base Assets & Emerging Countries at Chevron, had spent a few hours in Venezuela, spread rapidly.
We revise down exchange rate and inflation forecasts
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jul 2025
We revise down our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for two main reasons: the reduction in cash transfers under the Patria system following the elimination of some benefits starting in June 2025, and our assumption that the government will seek to contain inflationary pressures by keeping mo...
Maduro calls for peace—with one eye on opportunity
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jul 2025
It is too soon to predict the impact of the Iran–Israel ceasefire announced by President Trump on June 23. In any case, developments in the conflict point to a geopolitical realignment the effects of which will reach far beyond the Middle East. Even if Iran chooses to escalate, it will do so from...