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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Congress prepares for 2026 elections; we expect the fiscal deficit to widen, and the CA to remain in surplus; Central Bank will keep cutting, but more policy pauses can’t be ruled out
PERU · Report · 18 Jun 2024

In this report, we begin by discussing politics, focusing on the high number of laws approved by Congress that will shape the 2026 presidential and congressional elections. We then summarize our forecasts on the economy. We start by discussing our base, low and high-case scenarios, followed by re...

President Boluarte under fire; real GDP to accelerate in Q2; BCRP’s easing cycle nears its end
PERU · Report · 21 May 2024

We cover three topics in this report. First, we discuss the likelihood of Congress impeaching President Dina Boluarte. Then, we evaluate Peru’s economic performance, suggesting that real GDP remained stagnant throughout Q1 2024. We expect a rebound in Q2 2024, on the back of fiscal stimulus, and ...

Boluarte government weakened further; economic recovery takes off in Q1 2024; BCRP’s 25bp cut surprises markets
PERU · Report · 16 Apr 2024

In this report we discuss recent political developments, with a focus on President Dina Boluarte; using high-frequency economic reports, we present our updated forecast, and argue that the economy rebounded in Q1 2024; and discuss the BCRP Board’s decision to cut rates by 25bp, surprising both ma...

Peru: pension funds withdrawal to be approved on Thursday
PERU · In Brief · 09 Apr 2024 · 1 response

As expected, today Congress scheduled the vote on the pension funds withdrawal bill at its Thursday congressional plenary. The bill calls for pension funds’ contributors to be able to withdraw up to four Unidades Impositivas Tributarias (UITs, or tax-inflation-indexed units). This would allow eac...

Peru: Prime Minister in Congress
PERU · In Brief · 03 Apr 2024

Prime Minister Gustavo Adrianzén and his Cabinet were in Congress this morning requesting the rejection to the no confidence vote. In his speech said that his priorities were the economic recovery and internal security. Although President Boluarte is under scrutiny on an apparent failure to decla...

Peru: Congress to approve a new pension fund withdrawal
PERU · In Brief · 26 Mar 2024 · 1 response

Last night, Congress' Economy Commission approved by 17 votes (only 3 against) a bill approving the seventh private pension fund withdrawal. Initially the draft conditioned the 4 Unidades Impositivas Tributarias (UITs, the inflation index units, amounting each to PEN5,150 or US$1392) withdrawals ...

Opposition prepares for 2026 election; recovery gains speed in Q1; BCRP to pause through May-June
PERU · Forecast · 12 Mar 2024

In this report, we summarize our latest forecasts. First, we discuss possible political scenarios. We analyze the recent Cabinet reshuffle, the resignation of Prime Minister Alberto Otárola and the appointment of his replacement Gustavo Adrianzén (our view is that this has changed little). Next, ...

Pension fund withdrawal likely
PERU · In Brief · 11 Mar 2024 · 1 response

Congress' Economic, Banking, Finance and Financial Intelligence Commission has drafted a new law authorizing a new withdrawal from workers' pension funds. It proposes that those workers that had not been contributors until December 31st, 2023, can withdraw up to 4 Unidades Impositivas Tributarias...

Peru: Pension fund withdrawal
PERU · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

The risk of a new pension fund withdrawal has increased recently, although we believe that the probability remains at 40%. Congress-member Jose Luna Galvez, owner of the Telesup University and Podemos political party, which has strong influence on Congress's Consumer Defense Commission, is pressi...

Gustavo Adriansén appointed new Prime minister
PERU · In Brief · 06 Mar 2024 · 1 response

Last night, Prime Minister Alberto Otárola resigned. He had been under pressure and turned into a drag on President Dina Boluarte. An edited audio released on a prime TV program Panorama on Sunday night had prompted his resignation. In this audio he is listened offering a job in the government to...

President Boluarte reshuffled her Cabinet as anticipated
PERU · In Brief · 13 Feb 2024 · 6 responses

Tonight President Dina Boluarte reshuffled her Cabinet and replaced the following ministers: Economy and Finance, Alex Contreras; Defense, Jorge Luis Chavez; Energy and Mines, Óscar Vera; and Environment, Albina Ruiz. She has taken oath of office this afternoon from the new ministers: José Arista...

Cabinet crisis persists; Chancay port could create a Pacific hub; BCRP to cut 125bp in 2024
PERU · Report · 13 Feb 2024

In this report we cover politics, the economy and markets. First, we discuss the crisis gripping President Dina Boluarte’s Cabinet. In our last report, we argued that Boluarte may opt for a reshuffle – but as of this writing, that had not happened. As a consequence of her failure to act, the Cab...

Ecuador’s violence sends shockwaves; El Niño impact less severe than expected; BCRP likely to pause in February and March
PERU · Report · 16 Jan 2024 · 2 responses

We discuss three topics in this report. First, in politics, we discuss the risk that the recent wave of violence in neighboring Ecuador will spread to Peru. Next, we discuss our economic outlook, and reassess the impacts of the El Niño weather shock. Finally, we discuss the recent decision by the...

Finance Minister Contreras resigns
PERU · In Brief · 04 Jan 2024 · 3 responses

This morning Finance Minister Contreras submitted his letter of resignation to President Dina Boluarte. In his letter he mentioned "lack of transparency," presumably from the presidency. Apparently, President Boluarte had been looking for a replacement since late December and had met with former ...

Institutional crisis should end positively; the economy set to rebound in H2 2024; asset prices likely to remain well supported
PERU · Forecast · 12 Dec 2023 · 1 response

This forecast discusses three topics. First, it examines the likely outcome of the institutional crisis confronting the Judiciary, Executive, and Legislative branches. Second, we discuss our economic forecasts. We take stock of recent performance, then present our forecasts for three possible sce...

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