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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A trot not a gallop
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 01 Dec 2022

The strong external headwinds buffeting the country mean that its chances of galloping away from the pandemic have disappeared. It can nevertheless count itself lucky to have remittances and business process outsourcing supporting consumption. These two dollar earners have proven themselves relat...

BSP matches US Fed rate hike
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Nov 2022

The Monetary Board formally approved today the 75bp increase in the BSP’s set of policy rates that Governor Felipe Medalla announced two weeks ago. The increase brings the overnight reverse repurchase rate to 5%. In his statement, Governor Medalla acknowledged that the action is aggressive but ne...

Surprise 3Q GDP growth
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Nov 2022

GDP grew 7.6% in 3Q, much faster than the 6.1% median forecast of analysts. The seasonally adjusted figures showed GDP growing 2.9% over 2Q, its strongest since 4Q last year and a reversal from the slight dip in 2Q. 3Q performance reveals that the economy continued to benefit from the removal of ...

October inflation shoots up to 7.7%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Nov 2022

The BSP’s job just became even harder. Today’s announcement that October inflation reached 7.7% exceeded analysts’ expectations (median forecast of 7.2%) and is near the upper end of the BSP’s 7.1%-7.9% forecast for the month. Core inflation, which strips out the more volatile food and energy ite...

Line in the sand for the peso (2)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 Oct 2022

Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno wisely walked back today his comments about government’s plan to defend the peso (see In Brief with same title released 22 October). Based on the Bloomberg report we saw, the key message is that the BSP is independent and its policy decisions are made by the seve...

Line in the sand for the peso
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Oct 2022

We are not alone in scratching our heads over why Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno, The Banker’s “Global Central Banker of the Year 2022,” said what he said. Briefly, Bloomberg[1] reported Secretary Diokno saying: (a) government is trying to prevent the peso from breaching P60/$; (b) it is prepa...

The first 100 days: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Oct 2022

100 days have passed since Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., the late dictator’s son and namesake, was sworn in as the 17th President of the Philippines. So far, he has behaved as we expected, i.e., not like his father. Although we had said that this is both good and bad, the overall net sentiment of busine...

September inflation climbs to 6.9%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Oct 2022

Local prices continued to increase in September, climbing 0.4% mom and 6.9% yoy. The headline rate itself is unsurprising, falling within the BSP’s 6.6% to 7.4% forecast for the month. Fish, sugar and flour-based products were the main contributors to food price inflation while electricity prices...

POGOs: What’s at stake?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Oct 2022

We momentarily turn our eyes away from the turmoil in financial markets and take a look at the uproar in the online gambling industry. Called POGOs, short for Philippine offshore gaming operators, the industry is akin to business process outsourcing (BPO) in that firms set up bases in the Philipp...

A third 50bps
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Sep 2022

Following the US Fed’s third outsized rate increase of 75bp yesterday, the Monetary Board in its regular meeting today responded with its third 50bp increase for its set of policy rates. Today’s move brings the key overnight RRP rate to 4.25% compared with the fed funds target rate of 3% to 3.25%...

Canary in the coal mine
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 11 Sep 2022

Last week, the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee investigating the controversy surrounding the August 9 order of the Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) to import 300,000 metric tons of sugar concluded its public hearings. It recommended the filing of administrative and criminal charges against the ...

August inflation at 6.3%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Sep 2022

Consumer prices continued to trek up in August but at a slower rate of 0.4% month-on-month. The slower climb translated into a headline inflation rate of 6.3%, down from July’s 6.4%, as softening crude oil prices helped offset some of the increases in food prices. Despite the deceleration in the ...

So far, so good
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 25 Aug 2022

It has been a slow crawl out of the pandemic for the economy. 1H2022 output has surpassed the pre-pandemic level but the economy has emerged only to face a gloomy world economic outlook, with elevated commodity prices, tighter financial conditions and slowing global growth. The government lacks t...

Another 50bp rate hike
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Aug 2022

The Monetary Board today decided to increase its set of policy rates by 50bp, bringing the overnight reverse repurchase rate to 3.75% effective tomorrow. Year to date, policy rates are up by 175bp following more aggressive tightening since July in response to rising inflation. Per the BSP, inflat...

2Q GDP growth slows to 7.4%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Aug 2022

The Philippine Statistics Authority reported today that GDP grew 7.4% year-on-year (yoy) in 2Q. The relatively high headline growth number continues to reflect base effects, i.e., impact of pandemic and lockdowns on last year’s GDP, and is roughly in line with the 7.5% median forecast of analysts...

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