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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Confusion will be my epitaph
TURKEY · Report · 06 Oct 2023 · 1 response

In this special report, we briefly review the latest macro developments and take a glance at the near-term issues and outlook in our favorite Q&A format. Growth likely stayed sequentially positive in Q3, and a sharp slowdown or contraction should be avoided in Q4, thanks to significant fiscal ...

Service inflation surges to 86.5%
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2023

Consumer prices rose by 4.8%, m/m, in September, broadly in line with the consensus forecast, with 12-month CPI-inflation increasing further to 61.5% -- the highest level since the beginning of the year -- from 58.9% in August. Producer prices rose at a more moderate rate of 3.4% in the month, wi...

Cyclical respites, secular concerns
TURKEY · Report · 01 Oct 2023

In this very brief econ-only Weekly, we take a quick look at last week’s data releases and review the latest deposit and reserve developments. The bottom line is that there is little sign of rebalancing in the economy according to data through August, as we see it, while reserves are being helped...

Missed opportunities, improved reserves
TURKEY · Report · 24 Sep 2023 · 1 response

President Erdogan’s New York tour was not a failure, but as the politics author sees it, he missed three huge chances to change the way Turkey and the President himself are perceived. In the immediate term, Swedish membership to NATO and its price of selling Turkey F-16s is becoming convoluted, b...

The CBRT delivers the expected, road ahead uncertain
TURKEY · Report · 21 Sep 2023

The CBRT/MPC raised the policy rate (one-week repo) by another 500 bps to 30%, in line with the market consensus (see chart), which was also the most likely outcome, in our view. The paragraph on inflation is now amended to include the acknowledgement of worse than expected July-August prints,...

Diplomatic setbacks and more
TURKEY · Report · 17 Sep 2023

President Erdogan has suffered a string of diplomatic setbacks over the past week, which might adversely affect his mood on the critical US trip. The politics author pays a lot of attention to Erdogan’s foreign policy initiatives, because they are the “icing on the cake” that Minister Simsek will...

Webinar replay: Turkey and the Gulf - The impact of reconciliation
TURKEY · Report · 15 Sep 2023

How much financing have the Gulf States delivered or pledged to Turkey and to what extent did it stabilize the lira? What are the implications for regional geopolitics? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Justin Alexander (GCC), Atilla Yesilada (Turkey), and Murat...

Optics vs reality, redux
TURKEY · Report · 10 Sep 2023

The politics author steps away from the topical stuff in this round, trying instead to find answers to the question of how far and long President Erdogan can be trusted to pursue orthodoxy. His answers are speculative and tentative, but he proposes 4 scenarios ranging from best to worst. For thos...

Medium-term program announced
TURKEY · Report · 06 Sep 2023 · 2 responses

The Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2024-26 was released today, which was presented by Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz, followed by remarks from President Erdogan.

CBRT’s unenviable uphill battle
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023

Consumer prices rose by a near-double digit monthly rate of 9.1% in August (August 2022: 1.5%), significantly higher than consensus forecasts and our own, atop a 9.5% increase in July. The twelve-month rate rose sharply to almost 60% -- 58.9%, to be precise -- from 47.8% in July. Monthly PPI infl...

Gearing up for an eventful autumn
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2023

Putin finally granted Erdogan a summit in September, which bodes well for the future of “frenemy” relationship, but Erdogan’s hopes of midwifing a second grain deal are probably dead. At home, both alliances are negotiating already about local election alliances, which will be held in March 20...

Growth accelerates in Q2, remains unbalanced
TURKEY · Report · 31 Aug 2023

The Turkish economy expanded by 3.8%, y/y, and 3.5%, q/q, in the second quarter of the year. While GDP growth has been broadly stable in the past few quarters in annual terms (i.e., over the same quarter of the previous year; Graph 1), it has been rather volatile in sequential terms (q/q), postin...

The MPC acts bold, what’s next?
TURKEY · Report · 24 Aug 2023 · 1 response

In an encouraging and surprising move, the MPC/CBRT raised the policy rate by a markedly more than expected 750 bps to 25%, versus a consensus expectation of 250 bps (see chart). That the decision came at the very first MPC meeting of the newly appointed deputies, also send the right signals. The...

The summer lull is almost over
TURKEY · Report · 23 Aug 2023

With 7 months left until crucial municipal elections, the opposition is comatose, but AKP is still not guaranteed to reclaim big cities from CHP, thanks to rising economic frustration and the genuine popularity of some CHP candidates. President Erdogan’s larger dilemmas are all abroad. The eve...

The Sultan woos the Sheikhs: Turkey’s improved GCC relations bolster external financing
TURKEY · Report · 22 Aug 2023 · 1 response

This report is a joint publication co-authored by Atilla Yesilada and our GCC analyst, Justin Alexander. * Turkey received a $5bn Saudi deposit in March and possibly undisclosed support from UAE and/or Qatar that averted a currency crisis ahead of the May elections and helped keep Erdogan in p...

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