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Weekly Tracker: June 30-July 6
TURKEY · Report · 30 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryWe change our political base-case scenario that Gezi Parki and related protests would taper off during the summer. It is now more likely that they will be joined by Alevites and Kurds sooner than we anticipated. The Peace Process is being sabotaged by PKK, as Kurdish actors press...

Richter Scale 6.5 Heads-Up
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Jun 2013

Capital Markets Board launched a sweeping probe of all brokers to see whether manipulative trades have taken place during the Gezi Park crash.  I talked to several people in the financial community and this is true. CMP even asked for private e-mails and phone records as well as bank account nrs ...

Alevi’s Death Infuriates Gezi Parki People
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jun 2013

Strong signs that AKP is preparing reform packages for Alevites and Kurds. Budget aid will be provided to Alevite temples (Cemevi) and pastors. For Kurds, Kurdish language education will be permitted in private schools, with a voucher type of system. Will the minorities settle for that little?  I...

CBT Makes its Choice
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2013

CBT signaled to the market that it intends to deal with the pressures on the exchange rate primarily by selling F/X than by raising funding rates. Of course, this could bite them in fanny if the GEM sell-off were to last for a “few more months”.  Treasury auctions not good...Average yields up acr...

Weekly Tracker: June 23-29
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryWe know our readers have their hands full with bigger issues like China, Brazil and the QE exit, so to save on reading time, we summarized our baseline political scenarios in light of some FAQs:Gezi Parki and related demonstrations: 55% chance they will wind down over the summer,...

MPC: Most Predictable in a Long Time
TURKEY · Report · 18 Jun 2013

The Monetary Policy Committee left all rates as well as all other levers of monetary policy (reserve ratios, ROCs, etc.) untouched, exactly in line with the consensus (see graph). The statement was also the plainest we've read in a long time.As before, the Bank reiterated that domestic demand is ...

CBT Unlikely to Change Rates
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Jun 2013

Small scale clashes lasted throughout the night across Turkey. A sympathy strike by left-leaning unions and professional associations drew in crowds, but excitement was notably lacking. These are critical days, if the protests wind down under their own weight, fine. The markets are likely to forg...

Weekly Tracker: Week of June 16-22
TURKEY · Report · 16 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryPrime Minister Erdogan's order for police to forcefully vacate the Gezi Parki prolonged the crisis, turning into an uprising by various segments of the society.The most likely summer scenario, unfortunately, seems to be a continuation of unrest.It is also not feasible to deliver ...

Erdogan backs down on Gezi Parki
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Jun 2013

Party spokesperson H. Celik announced that a.      As long the current injunction by court on reconstruction in Gezi Parki stands, the government will not raze the parkb.      Regardless of the final court verdict a plescibite will be heldIn return AKP wants protestors to vacate the Gezi Park. Ye...

Economy Says, End Taksim Peacefully
TURKEY · Report · 11 Jun 2013

Two important data prints were released today: GDP grew by a better-than expected 3% in Q1, y/y, while April current account deficit was a wider than expected $8.2 billion.Both prints are problematic in our view, as they yield signs of a struggling economy on two fronts: a not so healthy growth d...

AKP strikes back
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Jun 2013

Yet another fateful day in Turkish history. Arinc promised Erdogan will meet a delegation of Gezi Parki protestors tomorrow. But this morning riot police entered the Taksim Square to remove the banners and to end the occupation.  Clashes throughout the day and across the country a possibility to ...

What to look for in the new week
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2013

What to look for in the new week:   Gul has until Tuesday 5 pm to decide what to do with the bill restricting alcohol sales and consumption.   Erdogan declared war on banks and speculators who caused the collapse in the stock market last week.  BRSA or capital Markets Board could initiate probes ...

Weekly Tracker: June 9-15
TURKEY · Report · 09 Jun 2013

Executive Summary This weekly has been written in the manner of a strategy piece, focusing on the political, economic and market implications of ongoing Gezi Parki protests, together with potential spillovers from the region. In addition, we took a quick look at the key data releases of the week:...

Weekend preview
TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Jun 2013

A very critical day in Gezi Parkı protests.  First Gul ought to decide what to do with the law on restricting alcohol sales. A veto would go a long way to soothe secularist tensions. Secondly, AKP is convening its administrative body to decide how to respond to demonstrations. Finally, we will be...

Update: No respite from Gezi Park demonstrations
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2013

Turkey is going through an extraordinary upheaval of-- so far-- peaceful nature. Organized and galvanized by social media, the "modernist" face of Turkey is on the streets. Even though some steps by AKP reveal a softening of attitude, there is no sign that the party is ready to abandon any of its...

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