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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Permission for limited long-range missile strikes vs. global security breakdown
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Nov 2024

On Sunday morning, November 17, we received an alert that nearly 17 Russian strategic bombers were in the air preparing to launch dozens of cruise missiles. Such a big number of strategic bombers approaching launch sites usually means that hypersonic ballistic missile Kynzhal carriers Mig-31 will...

Euphoria Over Trump’s Peace Promise Seems Premature
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Nov 2024

In early 2022, European leaders, as well as the U.S., assumed that the occupation of Ukraine was imminent. Germany's Minister of Finance, Christian Lindner, told the Ukrainian ambassador in Berlin that Russia would occupy Ukraine within hours. All embassies were evacuated from Kyiv in February 20...

Ukraine's Peace Prospects under a Trump Presidency: A View from Kyiv
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Nov 2024

Another sleepless night in Kyiv, with air alerts lasting over 8 hours. For more than two months, nearly every night has been interrupted, with only rare exceptions. It feels like a deliberate tactic, KGB-style, to exhaust people by depriving them of sleep. After all, the chief barbarian from the ...

Prime rate holds at 13.0%; NBU signals readiness for potential rate hike
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Nov 2024

On October 31st, the NBU Board, as anticipated, kept the prime rate steady at 13.0% for the third consecutive time. With inflation accelerating (+1.5% m/m and +8.6% y/y in September) and the challenges of a third winter under missile and drone strikes, the NBU has little choice but to remain in a...

With $50 billion incoming, what’s next for Ukraine?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Oct 2024

G7 leaders have finalized a $50 billion loan agreement for Ukraine, backed by profits from frozen Russian assets, according to the G7 Finance Ministers' Statement on the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) Loan Initiative released on October 25. The funds will be fully disbursed to Ukraine b...

IMF Fifth Review: Reform Targets Grow More Demanding
UKRAINE · In Brief · 21 Oct 2024

On Friday, October 18, the IMF reported on the fifth review of the EFF arrangement for Ukraine and announced a $1.1 billion disbursement channeled to Ukraine's budget. The tone of the press release was very positive, highlighting that the authorities met all end-June quantitative performance crit...

Zelenskiy hints at resurrecting nuclear weapons, sending a mild warning to an indecisive West
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Oct 2024

Today in Brussels, while presenting the Victory Plan to EU leaders, President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned that during his conversation with Donald Trump in September, he told Trump that Ukraine would either join NATO or pursue nuclear weapons. The narrative about the need to resurrect nuclear we...

Zelenskiy's Victory Plan – no territorial concessions
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Oct 2024

There are gloomy expectations across the country, as everyone understands that the results of the U.S. elections could dramatically change our lives—something completely beyond our control. Against this backdrop, Zelenskiy's Victory Plan seems to be an effort to show that Ukrainian leadership is ...

Preparing for resistance through 2025 and beyond
UKRAINE · Report · 08 Oct 2024

Many publications about a potential peace deal have appeared in Western media, sometimes with claims that Ukraine might accept territorial concessions. It's hard to determine who is signaling what with these articles, but from Kyiv, much of this seems out of touch — similar to in 2022, when Weste...

Prime rate held at 13.0% amid rising inflation risks
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Sep 2024

On September 19th, the NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 13.0% for the second consecutive time, after cutting it by 50 basis points in June. Accelerating inflation (+0.6% m/m and +7.5% y/y in August), the recent turbulence in the FX market, potential tax increases, and rising costs due t...

Budget 2025: back to harsh war reality
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Sep 2024

On September 13th, the Cabinet submitted the draft spending plan for 2025 to parliament. The most notable aspect of the proposed budget is the allocation of UAH 2.2 trillion (nearly $53.8 billion at the current exchange rate) or 56% of central budget spending for defense, which is significantly h...

The Cabinet Reshuffle: Changing the Terms Doesn’t Change the Outcome
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Sep 2024

There’s a lot of noise about changes in the Cabinet. For external observers, this might look like an effort to refresh the team of Ministers. But in fact, it’s not. Some faces from the same tired deck of cards have simply moved from old positions to new ones. Others, like the Minister of Foreign ...

Interim Results of the Kursk Operation
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Aug 2024

More than two weeks have passed since Ukrainian forces began the Kursk operation. The dust has settled a bit, and we now have a clearer picture of what has happened. In short, the Russians have concentrated all their forces on the Avdiivka area (now referred to as the Pokrovsk direction), while U...

Peace talks?
UKRAINE · Report · 06 Aug 2024

There’s been lots of talk about a potential peace deal. Ukrainian sentiments on the issue are murky. While polls show a growing demand for a peace deal, the majority of respondents still reject any territorial concessions to Russia. Moreover, an overwhelming majority—77.3%—would agree to peace wi...

NBU keeps prime rate unchanged at 13.0% amid faster inflation and FX volatility
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Jul 2024

Predictably, the NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 13.0% after the July 25th meeting. The accelerating inflation (+2.2% m/m and +4.8% y/y in June), substantial volatility in the FX market (with the hryvnia breaking the 42 per US dollar mark), and stagnant growth of hryvnia deposits made ...

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