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Budget Deficit Reaches 2% of GDP just for 7M 2013
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Sep 2013

Through January-July 2013 the central budget deficit reached UAH 30.3 billion (2.0% of GDP) or 60% from the targeted UAH 50.6 billion deficit for 2013.  It is very unusual to see such a high fiscal deficit by the end of July.  Traditionally, the authorities used to postpone the main part of publi...

Russia the Troublemaker
UKRAINE · Report · 27 Aug 2013

Executive SummaryRussia is actively intimidating Ukraine, in light of the November Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, where Kyiv expects to sign the EU Association Agreement. In mid-August, Ukrainian exports were effectively stopped for one week at the Russian border. The conflict has seeming...

Will Ukraine Fall?
UKRAINE · Report · 30 Jul 2013

Executive SummaryUnprecedented social unrest, coming on atop severe economic problems, could lead to massive investor and capital flight. It’s hard to pinpoint just how or when that might happen -- but we foresee things proceeding along an extremely turbulent path in the runup to the 2015 preside...

Gross reserves declined to $23.1 billion in June
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Jul 2013

Gross foreign reserves declined $1.4 billion (5.7% m/m) in June down to $23.1 billion or 2.55 months of future imports, according to the Central bank report on July 5th.It has been already for the second month in row gross reserves have been falling.  This tendency was the direct consequence of Q...

Budget revenues down 8.1% y/y in June
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Jul 2013

Budget revenues declined 8.1% y/y in June, according to Treasury report on July 3rd.  That was already third month in row state collections have been sliding.  For the first six months of the year state revenues went down 0.3% y/y (against 4.9% y/y 2013 revenues plan).  Such trend confirms our vi...

Alert: Currency Risk Ahead
UKRAINE · Forecast · 25 Jun 2013

Executive Summary Ukraine is facing a new challenge: QE3 tapering. The end of the cheap money era will change a lot for the economy.Over the past year, only the abundant international liquidity has propped up the hryvnia and, by extension, economic growth.The outflow of money from emerging market...

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