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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Credit Remains Weak
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Jun 2013

The expansion of bank loans continues to be lethargic. Despite the decline of nearly 1.5 percentage points in the household debt service level since the July 2012, the current level remains high, sustaining the high default rate and deterring private banks from expanding credit. The only dynamism...

Brazil and the Changes in the External Scenario
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jun 2013

Since the signal sent by Chairman Bernanke at the press conference following the FOMC meeting in May, that the Fed's program of purchasing US$ 85 billion in assets per month would probably be tapered back in the second half this year, the global markets have been trying to adjust to the new reali...

The Weakening of the Real
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryThe real has been depreciating. Two forces behind this movement come from the world economy. First, the United States has entered a sustained phase of growth greater than that of other industrialized countries, while emerging countries are experiencing deceleration. This is tendi...

Investments: Beware of Over-optimism
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jun 2013

The data for the first quarter of 2013 show that the deceleration of GDP growth came from slower growth of household consumption and increased net imports. The positive surprise was fixed capital investments. The monthly figures on production of capital goods and construction materials, and the q...

Retail Sales: Modest Recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Jun 2013

The seasonally adjusted retail sales numbers for April show slightly stronger growth: in the restricted concept sales grew 0.5% and in the augmented concept (including cars and construction materials) they expanded 1.9% (Graph 1). Over the past 12 months through April, the rates are lower than in...

States and Municipalities Add to the Fiscal Expansion
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jun 2013

The weak economic growth and expansionary fiscal policy that have raised the risks of dangerous growth of the public debt were responsible for the change in the Brazilian outlook from stable to negative by S&P. In addition to the decline in the primary surplus of the central government, which was...

Change Course?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Jun 2013

Executive SummaryConcern over inflation has led the Central Bank to signal a more intense monetary tightening cycle is in store, with the yield curve last week indicating the cycle might end with the SELIC rate at 9.25%. The high inflation is being driven by the steep increase in absorption in pr...

S&P Changes Brazil’s Outlook from Stable to Negative
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Jun 2013

S&P announced a change in Brazil's outlook from stable to negative. The decision was based on the fact that, in the absence of corrective measures, the weak GDP growth combined with a continually expansionary fiscal policy (including off-budget measures) generates the risk of weakening the countr...

IOF on Capital Flows to the Fixed-Income Market Removed
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Jun 2013

The Finance Ministry announced the elimination of the IOF (Tax on Financial Operations) on investments from abroad in the fixed-income market. The IOF rate had been raised from 2% to 4% on October 4, 2010, and then to 6% on October 18, 2010, staying there until today. The decision did not come...

Industrial Production
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Jun 2013

After accounting for seasonal factors, industrial output rose 1.8% in April, or 8.4% in relation to the same month in 2012 (Graph 1). There were substantial increases in vehicles (8.2%); machinery and equipment (7.9%); and foods (4,8%), and the result for the month was very diffused, covering a l...

Credit: No Reasons for Optimism
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jun 2013

In assessing the reasons for the weak GDP performance in the first quarter, two points stand out. The first is the fall in the contribution of household consumption, which grew only 0.1%, and the second is the slower growth of GDP in the service sector, largely determined by the stagnation of fin...

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