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An update on the election campaign and opinion polls
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Feb 2026

On February 24, Median, one of the more reliable pollsters domestically, published a new survey, in which Tisza's lead against Fidesz rose to 42:31 from January's 40:33, both as percent of the total voting population:Note: 'Egyéb párt' = other parties, 'Pártnélküli' = undecided; Source: 444.huThi...

The MNB base rate has been cut by 25 bps to 6.25% today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Feb 2026

For the first time since September 2024, the MNB base rate was reduced by 25 bps at today's monthly rate-setting meeting. The interest rate corridor around the base rate was kept at +/-1%-point. The decision corresponded to broad expectation, as regards analyst views and market pricing. There app...

A strange story about friendship and the fog of war
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Feb 2026

For this story, friendship represents the Druzhba oil pipeline, through which Hungary brings in most of its 4.9m metric tons (2025, estimated) of crude oil imports, from Russia of course, but through the territory of Ukraine. Druzhba literally means 'friendship', although no one can be sure exact...

All eyes are on the election now
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Feb 2026

European gas prices normalized once the roughly three-week period of extraordinary cold weather in January ended. The EU eventually approved its planned diversification away from Russian gas imports, but that did not have any significant market impact, suggesting the availability of sufficient su...

Excellent January inflation data (with some footnotes), analysts expect a base rate cut soon
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Feb 2026

The headline rate of CPI-inflation was 0.3% mom, 2.1% yoy in January, the latter sharply down from December's 3.3% yoy. Core inflation also fell, to 2.7% yoy from the previous month's 3.8% yoy, and non-fuel inflation dropped to 3.4% yoy, from 4.5% yoy in December. This sharp drop was no surprise ...

Politico.eu seen in Hungarian politics once again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2026

This morning, Politico.eu, which excels as an efficient miner of inside information in Brussels, wrote on a currently considered five-point plan to bring Ukraine into the EU by 2027, referring to their conversations with ten officials and diplomats within the EU. This plan would greatly affect Hu...

Tisza published its policy platform document yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Feb 2026

Roughly two months ahead of the election, Tisza published its policy platform on February 7, a 240-page document under the title: 'Foundations of a functioning and humane Hungary'. According to speakers from Tisza, this was prepared by more than 1000 experts over the past one and a half years. Us...

EU finally prohibited gas imports from Russia, Hungary sues at the European Court
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Feb 2026

The EU regulation to prohibit the imports of natural gas from Russia was finally published in the EU's official gazette on January 26, after being approved by the European Parliament in early December and by the EU Council at a later date. This regulation does not prohibit the imports of Russian ...

A few snippets on most recent developments
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jan 2026

By and large, the MNB's January rate-setting meeting on Tuesday proved to be a non-event, as expected. But, please, remain being warned that a base rate cut, most likely by 25bps, may come in late March, provided the usual early-year wave of price adjustments is found to have been completed with ...

Extreme election uncertainty magnifies risks of macro forecasts
HUNGARY · Forecast · 23 Jan 2026

Less than three months before the parliamentary election, there remains extraordinarily high uncertainty as to the likely outcome. Opinion poll results are diverse, even though on average they suggest that the opposition Tisza is distinctly more popular than Fidesz. However, given the existing he...

Hungary's MOL is set to acquire a majority stake in Serbia's NIS oil refinery
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Jan 2026

MOL has just said it signed a binding letter of intent to acquire a 56% controlling stake in Serbia's Nafta Industrija Srbije (NIS) company, which includes the country's only oil refinery at Pancevo, a retail network and a hydrocarbon exploration and production branch. MOL is buying this stake fr...

EU decisions regarding Hungary reportedly postponed until the election
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Jan 2026

Early this week, the President of the Republic officially called the parliamentary election for April 12, the earliest legally possible date, in line with long-time expectation, but running counter to some local speculations that PM Orbán may act to postpone the election if developments are not f...

Headline inflation rate down sharply in December, further reduction is likely in Q1
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jan 2026

Headline CPI-inflation was 0.1% mom, 3.3% yoy in December, the latter sharply down from 3.8% yoy in November. Despite the significant move by the yoy rate, this data was no surprise: the median analyst expected exactly this outcome, according to Portfolio.hu, and our own forecast table included 3...

2025 fiscal deficit is much bigger than officially expected... or will it still be in line in the end?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jan 2026

It has just been reported that the central government's cash deficit ended up at HUF5739bn or 6.6% of GDP in full-year 2025, according to preliminary figures. This means no less than HUF1668bn (an annualised 23.1% of GDP) in December alone, which is quite an impressive sum for a single month, eve...

Attention, friends of convergence trade: Tisza aims at euro introduction in medium term
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jan 2026

It had been claimed by Tisza for a while, more or less superficially, that they would go for the introduction of the euro in Hungary, should they win at the election later this year. However, Tisza held a news conference yesterday, at which Péter Magyar, founder and head of the party, and András ...

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