Services
GLOBAL COVERAGE
- ARGENTINA
- BRAZIL ECONOMICS
- BRAZIL POLITICS
- CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA
- CENTRAL AMERICA
- CHILE
- CHINA
- CHINA ADVISORY
- CHINA FINANCIAL
- COLOMBIA
- DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
- ECUADOR
- GULF COUNTRIES
- HUNGARY
- INDIA
- INDONESIA
- ISRAEL
- JAMAICA / BAHAMAS
- KAZAKHSTAN
- MEXICO
- NIGERIA
- PANAMA
- PERU
- PHILIPPINES
- POLAND
- RUSSIA ECONOMICS
- RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS
- SOUTH AFRICA
- TURKEY
- UKRAINE
- VENEZUELA
Events
Databanks
-
Argentina databank Jul 11 -
Brazil Economics databank Jul 15
-
Central America databank Jun 27
-
Chile databank Jul 17
-
China databank Mar 21
-
Colombia databank Jul 7
-
Dominican Republic databank Jun 18
-
Ecuador databank Jun 20
-
Gulf Countries databank Jul 18
-
Hungary databank Jun 23
-
India databank Jun 26
-
Mexico databank Jul 1
-
Panama databank Jul 17
-
Peru databank Jun 27
-
Philippines databank Jul 8
-
Poland databank Jul 16
-
Russia Economics databank Jul 11
-
South Africa databank Jul 11
-
Turkey databank Apr 24
-
Ukraine databank May 12
-
Venezuela databank Jul 7
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
The elephant has entered the china shop
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jul 2025
As his self-imposed 90-day deadline for trade talks had been passed, Mr. Trump sent out a number of letters in the past few days. Mme von der Leyen also received one, from which she learnt that the US government intended to impose a 30% general tariff on all of the EUs merchandise exports sold in...
Headline inflation up temporarily on fuel prices, core inflation markedly down in June
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jul 2025
The headline rate of CPI-inflation in June has been reported this morning at 0.1% mom, 4.6% yoy, the latter up from 4.4% yoy in May. This uptick was entirely due to fuel prices, which rose by 0.5% mom. Here the point is that fuel prices actually fell by 3.4% mom in June 2024, and the difference b...
Industrial output in May: from decrease to stagnation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jul 2025
The preliminary industrial output numbers for May were not particularly strong, to say the least: -1.3% mom, -2.6% yoy. Yet, it is notable that this came after a much stronger result in April, when output actually grew by +1.5% mom, so that in the last two months together, output did not fall any...
Budapest Pride march took place without problems on June 28
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jun 2025 · 1 response
On Saturday, June 28, the annual Pride March of the LGBTQ community took place in Budapest, despite the government's express will and a previously announced police ban on the event. The march attracted between 50-100k participants, making the event the biggest Pride ever, and the second largest s...
No change in the base rate today - the MNB has become more pessimistic about the inflation outlook
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2025
Today, the Monetary Council left the base rate unchanged at 6.5% and the interest rate corridor also an unchanged +/-1%-point around the base rate. After the meeting, governor Varga spoke about the main points of the Q2 inflation report, which is set to be presented in detail on Thursday this wee...
The MNB’s tight policy course is vindicated—once again
HUNGARY · Report · 23 Jun 2025
In the past few weeks, this is the second time we are giving this title to a piece of research. The first occasion was when the May inflation data came out with an unexpected rise in the headline rate. But we are coming back to this same conclusion again, after all that has happened, and in view ...
No base rate change is likely at Tuesday's Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Jun 2025
The Council is set to hold its regular monthly rate-setting meeting on Tuesday, June 24. So far this year. all decisions, and indeed all votes within the Council, were for holding the base rate at 6.5%. Last time, on May 27, the Council concluded that neither domestic inflation, nor external cond...
May CPI data out, MNB's tight policy course vindicated
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Jun 2025
The headline rate of CPI-inflation surprised on the upside in May. Against 4.2% yoy expected by analysts (their median forecast), the actual number was 4.4% yoy, with 0.2% inflation in May alone. The yoy rate rose from 4.2% yoy in April. Non-fuel inflation backed up to 5.2% yoy from the previous ...
May inflation data due tomorrow, and some fiscal data reported
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2025
For headline CPI-inflation, analysts in Portfolio.hu's monthly poll expect 4.2% yoy, unchanged from April, as regards the median forecast recorded by the survey. For end-2025, the headline rate is expected to decrease to 3.9% yoy. We fully agree with this forecast for May, and also with the expec...
Fitch affirmed their BBB/Stable sovereign debt rating on Friday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jun 2025
Just one week after the latest review by a Top-3 rating agency, Fitch Ratings affirmed their BBB/Stable mark on Hungary on June 6. The report was quite negative in the sense that it identified three key areas where the agency saw deterioration since their previous review: growth outlook, short-te...
Relatively good industry and retail sales data for April
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jun 2025
At last, we see a month in which both industrial output and retail sales grew materially, in month-on-month volume terms, on seasonally and day-adjusted basis. As for industry, output was up 1.5% mom. Year on year, this still meant a decrease of 2.6%, but even that was way better than the -6% yoy...
Moody's affirmed their Baa2/Negative sovereign rating to Hungary on Friday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jun 2025
This means that the government has escaped a downgrading from a key rating agency for now. But the negative outlook was maintained, and Moody's will review their rating again no later than November 28. The next review by a top-3 agency is due in a week's time, by Fitch Ratings, currently rating H...
No policy change at today's Monetary Council, as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 May 2025
The base rate remains at 6.5%, and the interest rate corridor has also been left at 5.5-7.5%. The Council expect headline CPI-inflation close to (meaning not a lot above) the target range. They continue to aim at maintaining the stability of financial markets (in our reading this primarily means ...
Good news, bad news: a brief update to last week's monthly report
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 May 2025
Our latest monthly report was released on May 20. Here follows a list of the most important items, which have shown up since then. 1. In the report, we wrote of the decelerating trend of nominal wage growth, which is good news for inflation but bad news for growth. We referred to the fact that by...
Improving price stability but no good prospects for GDP
HUNGARY · Report · 20 May 2025
Energy prices remain favorable for importers such as Hungary, especially regarding crude oil. We still consider the occasionally repeated US threat of retaliatory tariffs on those who buy Russian energy as unlikely to materialize. However, an alternative plan by the EU to end all purchases of Rus...