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Argentina databank Nov 7 -
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NEWS FLASH
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COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Trump’s victory is good for Orbán, but not necessarily good for Hungary
HUNGARY · Report · 21 Nov 2024
PM Orbán appeared to be greatly relieved, and even victorious, on the news of Trump’s reelection for US president. Below we argue that this result will likely raise his personal status significantly, whereas Mr. Trump’s economic and foreign policies are much less likely to favor Hungary. In do...
No base rate cut in November either, unsurprisingly
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Nov 2024
The Monetary Council left the MNB base rate unchanged at 6.5% at the monthly rate-setting meeting held today. As Vice Governor Virág said after the meeting, there was one member who proposed a 25 bps rate cut, but that was voted down by an overwhelming majority of decision-makers. This result was...
Update: CPI-inflation in October
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Nov 2024
Regarding our note on October's good-looking inflation data, unfortunately we have found no good explanation, official, anecdotal or anything, on KSH's reporting a 6.8% mom decrease of the prices of telephone and internet services. Simply speaking, we see no announcements, news, anecdotal reports...
Here is the actual October CPI-inflation data: lower than expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Nov 2024
The headline rate is reported at 0.1% mom, 3.2% yoy, materially below the expected 3.4% yoy (MNB, ourselves) and 3.5% yoy (analysts' median forecast - see yesterday's note). Perhaps more importantly, core inflation was only 4.5% yoy, rather than the 5% indicated in the MNB's forecast chart, on no...
Data preview for tomorrow: CPI-inflation expected to have risen materially in October
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Nov 2024
Here is once again the MNB's forecast chart from their latest post-meeting presentation of October 22, according to which the headline rate should go up to 3.4% yoy in October, from the cyclical low point (so far) of 3% in the preceding month: On this graph, the MNB also predicted 5% yoy core inf...
Monthly output and demand data for September substantiate weak Q3 GDP figures
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Nov 2024
While Mr. Orbán appears to be absolutely delighted by the outcome of the US presidential election, the macro analyst is forced to be in a somewhat less enthusiastic mood today. Industrial output fell by 0.7% mom, -5.8% yoy, making the Q3 yoy growth figure -5.4%, the worst so far this year. In Jan...
First reaction to this morning's report of horrendous preliminary Q3 GDP data
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Oct 2024 · 1 response
First the facts: Q3 real GDP growth on sda basis was reported by KSH as -0.7% qoq, -0.7% yoy, implying +0.7% yoy growth in the first three quarters of 2024. This was by 0.6%-point qoq, 1.1%-point yoy below the median analyst expectation (and even more below our own forecast, which happened to be ...
On the forint once again: no rate cut in November either?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Oct 2024
Well, with the forint still following a weakish trend and standing at EURHUF 405 today, it may be time to admit that the MNB's plan to stabilise the exchange rate and hold EURHUF back from running above the 400 line for any longer period, by skipping one month in its rate cutting series just does...
S&P affirmed its BBB-/Stable sovereign rating for Hungary yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Oct 2024
This was very much in line with our expectation, but apparently not so with everyone else's. The fact that EURHUF ran slightly above 404 (yes, this page can be found on the internet) ahead of the decision shows quite clearly just how much the government needs to watch its steps with regard to com...
Rates are held today, as expected: here are the key messages from the Council
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Oct 2024
The base rate was held by the Monetary Council unchanged at 6.5%, the corridor also remaining +/-1%-point around the base rate, as widely expected. This time around, Mr. Virág had left for the IMF/World Bank annual meeting, and so the post-meeting press/analyst conference was held by Csaba Kandrá...
Kind reminder: the MNB is likely to hold the base rate at tomorrow's rate-setting meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Oct 2024
The Monetary Council is set to hold its monthly rate-setting meeting tomorrow. With EURHUF at 402, as we are writing this note, a rate cut is highly unlikely this time. This morning, Portfolio.hu published the results of its regular analyst poll. All twelve respondents expect that the Council wil...
Growth forecast revised down significantly
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Oct 2024
In this quarterly update, we are revising our GDP forecast downward by a significant amount, following similar recent moves by other forecasters but taking a somewhat more pessimistic view than most of the other forecasts we know (Table 1). We are doing so on account of the continued, and current...
September inflation down as expected, MNB cools early rate cut expectations
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Oct 2024
In September, headline CPI-inflation has been reported as -0.1% mom, 3% yoy, core inflation as 0% mom, 4.8% yoy this morning. The yoy headline rate came from 3.4%, whereas core inflation rose from 4.6%, both actual data from August. As a result, the chart with the headline rate, the core rate and...
Expect a temporarily low headline inflation figure tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Oct 2024
The September CPI-inflation data is due from KSH early morning tomorrow. There seems to be broad consensus that a significantly lower number is likely to show up for the headline rate compared to all recent data, indeed the lowest seen at any time since February 2021. There is also broad consensu...
On new data releases: weak industry, strengthening consumption, and moderate surpluses on the BOP
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2024
1. Industrial output fell 0.5% mom, 3.5% yoy in August, he latter following -6.4% yoy in July. January-August was -3.8% yoy. So far this year, the usual mantra has been that most of the obvious weakness is caused by cars and batteries. But this time around, the foregoing preliminary numbers were ...