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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

How will a contraction in China’s trade surplus affect the economy?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Nov 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: - As always, October data was mixed. While consumption growth may be picking up, it is still not enough to keep pace with slowing growth in production. The result was more CPI deflation and one of the biggest monthly trade surpluses in history. ...

Webinar replay: China's economic dilemmas
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Nov 2024

How important is a consumption stimulus for China? Why is it so difficult for China to rebalance its economy towards consumption? Will the central government use its borrowing capacity and clean balance sheet to revive local-government spending? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our ...

Waiting for the Man
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Oct 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * As we have come to expect in the past few months, September’s data release was disappointing, with the demand side struggling to keep pace with a not-especially-brisk supply side. Import growth was much weaker than export growth, and what little i...

What is happening with China’s long-dated government bonds?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Aug 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * July’s data continues to indicate a sluggish economy, but it is important to add that even as overall growth is slowing, the quality of growth is also deteriorating. As I see it, “high quality” growth in China is the share of growth driven mainly ...

Why is it so hard for China to boost domestic consumption?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 23 Jul 2024 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this report: * The consumption share of GDP is so low in China that for it to comprise a more normal level, equivalent to that of other very low-consuming economies, requires that in the future, the consumption share of GDP growth be extraordinarily high. For ex...

The economy is weak going into the Third Plenum
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Jul 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * The Third Plenum opened today and will go on through Wednesday. Today also saw the release of June and second quarter economic data. * Today’s data release (along with inflation and trade numbers at the end of last week) confirms trends that w...

Waiting for the Third Plenum
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Jun 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: As I mentioned in my May report, the Third Plenum is scheduled to be held in July, much later than the expected October or November date last year. Most analysts believe the long delay suggests the lack of a consensus over how to address weak domesti...

What will China do about excess housing?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 May 2024 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The Third Plenum is scheduled to be held in July, much later than the expected October or November date last year. Most analysts believe the long delay suggests the lack of a consensus over how to address weak domestic demand, a rapidly contracting...

Why inflating debt away isn’t an option for China
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 Apr 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * First quarter results were better than expected in terms of the volume of economic activity delivered, but there has been no improvement in the composition of growth. In spite of continued promises by Beijing to deliver demand-side growth, Chinese ...

Quick thoughts on the Two Sessions
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Mar 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * Although we can expect flexibility on the downside, China’s 2024 GDP growth target of 5 percent is nonetheless aggressive given the headwinds. There are debt constraints on a major revival of investment—whether in the property sector, infrastructu...

The Year of the Dragon is supposed to be a good year
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 12 Feb 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * One of the key issues in the Year of the Dragon is likely to be how seriously Beijing is about reining in non-productive infrastructure spending among its more highly-indebted provinces. In an announcement last month— that didn’t get as much attent...

2023 ended pretty weak, suggesting a weak start for 2024
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Jan 2024

Special points to highlight in this report: * There were no surprises in Beijing’s recent economic data releases, either for December or for the full-year 2023. As expected, with annual GDP growth of 5.2 percent, China managed to exceed its GDP growth target, but (also as expected) not withou...

Managing debt will be a major issue for Beijing in 2024
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 28 Dec 2023

Special points to highlight in this report: * The problem of what to do with the debt will probably dominate economic policy-making discussions in Beijing in 2024. As of now, there seems to be a split between economists, who want to address the quality of economic activity, and non-economists,...

China’s external constraints
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Nov 2023

Special points to highlight in this report: * We continued to see a slow recovery in growth in October along with, far more importantly, a slight improvement in the quality of growth, as consumption growth for the year outpaced GDP growth. But as always, nothing fundamental has changed. *...

Bank share prices imply slower long-term growth
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Oct 2023

Special points to highlight in this report: * We continue to see the expected partial recovery in the Chinese economy for the second half of 2023, thanks to expansionary policies by Beijing and a surge in debt. For now, I expect this partial recovery to continue through the end of 2023 and in...

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