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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

I don’t think anyone expected COVID to spread this rapidly
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 16 Dec 2022 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * COVID is spreading so rapidly in Beijing and throughout China that I think everyone was caught by surprise. There is a rising consensus that government officials mishandled the opening up, and there are several explanations for what happened, and wh...

China’s new property measures don’t address the fundamental contradiction
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 15 Nov 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The trade and debt data releases last week, along with today’s economic data, indicate that there has been no change in October in the deterioration in the quality of Chinese growth. In fact the consumption share of growth declined in October even ...

The National Congress won’t matter to economic prospects as much as many think
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 28 Oct 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The leadership choreography of the National Congress left many people – both Chinese and foreign – increasingly worried about the economic outlook for China. While I have always expected a sharp slowdown in the years ahead and a very difficult adjus...

How will weaker export growth affect the Chinese economy?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 Sep 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Cargo rates for the rest of the year seem to be coming down sharply ahead of the Christmas holiday, suggesting that export growth may be declining rapidly because of weaker expected demand from the US and Europe. I have no way of knowing whether or ...

August’s better domestic demand was matched by worse property prices
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Sep 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The data releases this week and last week reaffirm the story of the past several months. Output growth continues to be weak in spite of aggressive supply-side measures, while the growth in consumption has further stagnated. This is exacerbated by th...

August data shows a still-struggling economy
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 19 Aug 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The data releases this week and last week reaffirm the story of the past several months: the supply side of the economy is recovering slowly, thanks to aggressive fiscal and monetary support, while the demand side continues to struggle. * The P...

The Henan banking and mortgage crises, and what they might tell us
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 Jul 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The crisis affecting a rural banks in Henan and Anhui, followed shortly after by a threatened mortgage boycott for apartments whose construction has been delayed, has renewed concerns about China’s property and banking sectors. These have both becom...

Still no improvement in China’s economic performance
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 Jul 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * GDP growth in the second quarter of 2022 came in well below already-low expectations. GDP was up in real terms by just 0.4 percent relative to GDP in the second quarter of 2021, and it was down 2.6 percent relative to GDP in the first quarter of 20...

It won’t be easy for foreign firms to leave China
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 13 Jun 2022 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The Chinese trade surplus in May was by far the largest trade surplus ever recorded by China for that month. For the first five months of the year China’s trade surplus was 42 percent greater than during the same period last year. Last year’s trade...

The quality of Chinese growth is deteriorating
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 20 May 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * This week’s data release by the National Bureau of Statistics was expected to be bad, but in fact was worse than expected. For me the most worrying number is the 8.2 percentage-point gap between April’s year-on-year decline in retail sales and the ...

The distribution of first quarter growth is worrying, but not surprising
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Apr 2022 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The National Bureau of Statistics reported this morning that China’s first quarter GDP was 4.8 percent higher than it was last year and 1.3 percent higher than the last quarter of 2021 (5.3 percent annualized). * While this was well above very ...

China’s GDP growth target for 2022 is 5.5 percent
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 10 Mar 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Beijing announced a 5.5 percent GDP growth target for 2022. This was what I had expected, but well above what most economists believe the Chinese economy can manage. * But I think they are wrong. In fact, the Chinese economy can manage m...

What can we expect from the Two Sessions?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 04 Mar 2022

Special points to highlight in this issue: * Tomorrow the Two Sessions will begin, during which Beijing will set targets and objectives for policies involving the economy, the military, trade, diplomacy, the environment and more. As part of the meeting Beijing will probably announce the G...

Webinar Replay: China Outlook for 2022 featuring Michael Pettis
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 25 Feb 2022

Click on our Calendar Events page to watch the replay of our February 23, 2022 webinar with GlobalSource Partners' China Financial Analyst Michael Pettis as he interprets the recent GDP data and its implications for China's monetary policy and its economic rebalancing over the medium term.

Interpreting China’s economic results for 2021
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Jan 2022 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: * China’s reported GDP growth for 2021 of 8.1 percent was better than expected, mainly because of a very poor fourth quarter that came in nonetheless well above expectations. * There are enough questions about the data, however, that we w...

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