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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russia's attack on a Chinese bank
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Nov 2023

The cyberattack by Russian agents or their proxies on a Chinese bank in the U.S. is more serious than it may appear on the surface. The Russian group LockBit, based in Netherlands but with Russian employees, conducted a ransomware attack on the Chinese bank Industrial and Commercial Bank of China...

Albert Hirschman and China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Nov 2023

How will China’s property crash end? There are different views: *Consumption boom. Chinese economists argue that after a short period of post-Covid adjustment, consumption will increase and the economy will gradually transition to an era of new technology, including AI and semiconductors. *Du...

China’s “shock therapy”
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Oct 2023

China’s two largest property developers this week have said they are on the verge of default. China Evergrande faced a government cancellation of its restructuring plan for $19 billion of international bonds that investors say could lead to a collapse of the company. Meanwhile, Country Garden has...

A "Lehman Moment" for China?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 Sep 2023

Shadow banking poses a systemic risk to the Chinese economy as part of a greater debt problem. In this report, we trace the development of shadow banking in China and discuss the areas where risks to the sector lie. The main driving force behind the current demand for shadow credit has been th...

Webinar replay: China - How risky is shadow banking?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Sep 2023

What are the systemic risks in China’s shadow banking industry today? What constraints will this put on China's future growth? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Andrew Collier discussing the likely risks caused by Zhongrong and the shadow banking industry.

Slide Presentation: China - How risky is shadow banking?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Sep 2023

Get insight into the likely risks caused by Zhongrong and the shadow banking industry with the presentation from our webinar, "China - How risky is shadow banking?".

Country Garden: further stress in China’s property market
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 14 Aug 2023

Country Garden, China’s second-largest property developer, has exhibited several signs of stress. It failed to inject additional funds into its developments and did not make payments on two bonds. Country Garden's June contracted sales at 17 billion yuan, according to CRIC's preliminary estimates...

China’s "schizophrenic" economic policy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Jul 2023

The People’s Daily on July 20 published a policy statement issued July 14 by the Party’s Central Committee calling for promotion of the private sector. The statement was entitled “Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on promoting the development ...

China’s weak Q2 economic data
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 17 Jul 2023

China reported weak economic Q2 2023 data. GDP rose 6.3 percent. This was below median forecasts of 7.1 percent by economists surveyed by Bloomberg, but many sell-side economists may have been bullish in their forecasts for political reasons. Retail sales were anemic at 3.1 percent, and auto s...

China and the Wagner coup
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Jul 2023

The Wagner coup in Russia was an awkward, embarrassing, and potentially destabilizing moment for China. China’s quiet support for Russia—while adhering to the letter of U.S. sanctions—was a balancing act that has thus far played in China’s favor. As Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Endowment note...

Deleveraging in China and the Japan trap
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 13 Jun 2023

China’s economy continued to slow in April and May, with only auto sales showing strength due to low base effects in 2022. The government remains steadfast on property deleveraging although there are new rumors of further stimulus, but no firm announcement. The key issue for China’s economy is ho...

Butter versus guns in China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 May 2023

There have been enough incidents to suggest that China is softening its “wolf warrior” diplomacy toward the west, and the United States, in particular. This could have a substantial impact both on China’s foreign relations and its domestic economy. This contradicts some incidents suggesting a har...

The pressure rises for Xi Jinping
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 02 May 2023

During the Chinese leadership’s Politburo meeting on the economy last week, the Party said it would seek to boost confidence in the private sector to return the economy to healthy growth. Louis Kuijs, chief economist for Asia Pacific at S&P Global Ratings, had forecast that officials would repeat...

China Q1 2023 GDP – structural weakness
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 18 Apr 2023

Some quick comments about the Q1 2023 numbers: The headline numbers were stronger than expected. GDP growth was 4.5% compared with a consensus 4%. Retail sales were 10.6% compared with 7.5%. On the industrial side, one positive number that jumped out was that apparent oil demand rose 9.5%. ...

China’s softer tech regulation
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 10 Apr 2023

Noises have been coming out of Beijing suggesting a softer tone toward the technology industry three years after the crackdown that caused share prices to plummet and companies to lose revenue. I would argue that things have changed around the margins but the underlying dynamics of Party power re...

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