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GULF WEEKLY: Saudi FDI rises, IMF updates forecasts, Gaza talks to resume in Doha
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Oct 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The IMF’s latest forecasts show the GCC will fall into deficit in 2024. * Moody’s argues that if AAOIFI Shariah Standard 62 is implemented it will slow sukuk issuance. * Investment banking fees in the region surged by 27%...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops, Kuwait’s non-oil growth rises, Hamas's leader killed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Oct 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude dipped as low as $72 on reduced concerns that Israel might strike Iranian oil facilities, and amidst indicators of weaker demand in China. * The first EU-GCC summit was held in Brussels, with participants inclu...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil remains elevated over Iran strike fears, Bahrain’s GDP growth slows in Q2, Wynn receives gambling license in UAE
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Oct 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude held at around $78 amidst ongoing conflict concerns. * Iran reportedly warned Gulf states of retribution if they facilitate an Israeli attack. * UK investments: PIF buys 40% of Selfridges, ADIA writes down 10%...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil spikes with Iran-Israel conflict, Saudi fiscal forecasts revised, Oman gets another rating upgrade, Abu Dhabi’s GDP rebounds in Q2
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Oct 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has spiked by 9% to $78 amidst concerns about a widening Israel-Iran conflict. * Saudi Arabia revised down growth and fiscal forecasts, seeing deficits of -2.8% of GDP in 2024-27. * The Saudi PMI rebounded to the high...

SAUDI ARABIA: Deficit projections widen in pre-budget statement
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Oct 2024 · 2 responses

The Ministry of Finance has revised up its projection for expenditure this year, driven by social benefits and goods & services, and in turn sees the deficit widening to -2.9% of GDP. It also sees wider deficits in subsequent years, averaging -2.7% of GDP in 2025-27.

Markets shrug at the Lebanon conflict, but are underestimating the risks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Sep 2024

Markets have shrugged off the risks from the conflict in Lebanon, including the killing of Hezbollah's leader and a pending ground invasion. Hezbollah may not be as weakened as thought and, although Iran has shown restraint until now, this may be a step too far. Lots of human suffering is ahead. ...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco and ADQ issue debt, Gulf leaders attend UN, Oman has a strong Q2 GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Sep 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped as the market offset returning Libyan and Saudi supply against China’s stimulus plans. * OPEC’s long-term demand forecasts were hiked and it sees 18m b/d demand growth by 2050. * Aramco issued $3bn in sukuk, li...

Implications of the US election for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Sep 2024

This article provides an overview of the state of the race as of today (mainly of interest for those outside the US) and considers how the US administration that governs in 2025-28 might impact the region, economically and politically, and how the Gulf states view Trump and Harris and are prepari...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE fiscal surplus soars, UAE advances trade and AI deals, Saudi-Bahrain aluminum partnership considered, Israel detonates Hezbollah comms devices
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Sep 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Most Gulf states cut interest rates by -50bp, though Qatar did -55 and Kuwait -25. * Brent crude rose by 4% to a three-week high of $74 on the back of broad market optimism. * UK and EU officials visited the GCC to advanc...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC cuts oil demand forecast, Saudi non-oil GDP rises, Oman’s OQ to IPO upstream subsidiary, Bahrain sells pipeline stake
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Sep 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC and IEA cut oil demand forecasts, and Brent briefly fell below $70 for the first time since 2021. * The GCC held dialogues with China and India and began free trade talks with Indonesia. * Saudi non-oil Q2 GDP grew a...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ delays taper, UAE revises up 2023 fiscal surplus, Bahrain taxes multinationals, Adnoc and PIF issue bonds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Sep 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ delayed tapering, cutting Q4 output by 450k b/d, as oil dipped to the lowest in over a year. * PMIs rebounded in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but Kuwait’s fell into contraction. * The IMF’s Saudi Article IV revi...

GULF WEEKLY: Moody’s raises Oman’s outlook to Positive, Kuwait has a new finance minister, oil falls despite outages in Libya
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Aug 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil is trading down this week despite disruption to Libyan production because of a new political crisis. * PIF renewed a $15bn syndicated credit facility for 3-5 years. * India wants to renegotiate its UAE Cepa to mitigat...

GULF WEEKLY: PIF returns rise, Oman achieves H1 fiscal surplus, Gaza ceasefire talks drag on, planned Ukraine-Russia talks in Doha fall through
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Aug 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * PIF’s annualized returns since 2017 rose to 8.7%, and its Giga-Project assets doubled in 2023. * Gender equality in the Saudi labor force is improving but still lags on salaries and managerial roles. * The number of new R...

GULF WEEKLY: Critical Gaza talks are underway in Qatar, OPEC revised down oil demand growth, Saudi investment law updated
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Aug 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC cut its demand growth forecast for the first time in over a year, although it’s still double the IEA’s. * Saudi Arabia revised its investment law to encourage FDI with less red tape and more investor rights. * Saudi ...

GULF WEEKLY: PMIs fall across the GCC, oil rebounds from an 8-month low, Bahrain revises GDP, mediators push to revive Gaza talks as the region awaits Iranian retaliation against Israel
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Aug 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has rebounded to $79, after touching an 8-month low, but the EIA cut its demand forecast. * PMIs fell across the Gulf, with Qatar down by the most, while the UAE and KSA hit multi-year lows. * Aramco’s Q2 earnings were ...

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