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GULF WEEKLY: Qatar and Kuwait replace sovereign wealth chiefs, Neom replaces CEO, Dubai GDP steady in Q2, Qatar pauses Gaza mediation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Nov 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC revised down its oil demand forecasts for a fourth month, but they still look high. * The UK-GCC free trade agreement is reportedly nearing agreement after two years of talks. * Neom replaced its CEO amidst continued...

Webinar replay: GCC 2025 Outlook - Oil, debt, diversification and Trump
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 15 Nov 2024

What are the GCC's views on the outlook for oil and OPEC+'s strategy? What are the trends in economic diversification, including Saudi Vision 2030? How could the regional conflict impact the Gulf states? Will relations with the US change under the next president? Visit our calendar page to watch ...

Slide Presentation - GCC Outlook: Oil, diversification, regional conflicts and US relations
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Nov 2024

Get insight into the GCC's views on the outlook for oil, the trends in economic diversification, how the regional conflict could impact the Gulf states, and how relations with the US could change under the Trump administration with the slide presentation from our webinar, "GCC Outlook: Oil, dive...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ extends cuts, dividends support the Saudi Q3 fiscal balance, Kuwait’s H1 surplus shrinks, PMIs rise across most of the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Nov 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * 8 OPEC+ members, half in the GCC, delayed tapering voluntary cuts until January. * Most Gulf states mirrored the Fed’s interest rate cut, but Qatar went further, and Kuwait held flat. * Gulf leaders congratulated Trump, i...

Implications of Trump's win for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 06 Nov 2024

Back in September, I shared some reflections on the potential implications of the US election for the GCC and wider region, as well as reviewing the history of relations between the Gulf States and the Trump and Biden Administrations. There will be lots more to unpick on this in the coming weeks ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil dips after Israeli strikes, FII convenes in Riyadh, GCC-NZ FTA signed, Dubai announces budget
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Nov 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped after Israeli strikes on Iran did not target oil facilities. * The IMF forecasts fiscal breakeven oil prices for 2025 from $45 for Qatar to $125 for Bahrain. * The GCC signed a rare FTA with New Zealand, a mont...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi FDI rises, IMF updates forecasts, Gaza talks to resume in Doha
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Oct 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The IMF’s latest forecasts show the GCC will fall into deficit in 2024. * Moody’s argues that if AAOIFI Shariah Standard 62 is implemented it will slow sukuk issuance. * Investment banking fees in the region surged by 27%...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops, Kuwait’s non-oil growth rises, Hamas's leader killed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Oct 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude dipped as low as $72 on reduced concerns that Israel might strike Iranian oil facilities, and amidst indicators of weaker demand in China. * The first EU-GCC summit was held in Brussels, with participants inclu...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil remains elevated over Iran strike fears, Bahrain’s GDP growth slows in Q2, Wynn receives gambling license in UAE
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Oct 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude held at around $78 amidst ongoing conflict concerns. * Iran reportedly warned Gulf states of retribution if they facilitate an Israeli attack. * UK investments: PIF buys 40% of Selfridges, ADIA writes down 10%...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil spikes with Iran-Israel conflict, Saudi fiscal forecasts revised, Oman gets another rating upgrade, Abu Dhabi’s GDP rebounds in Q2
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Oct 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has spiked by 9% to $78 amidst concerns about a widening Israel-Iran conflict. * Saudi Arabia revised down growth and fiscal forecasts, seeing deficits of -2.8% of GDP in 2024-27. * The Saudi PMI rebounded to the high...

SAUDI ARABIA: Deficit projections widen in pre-budget statement
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Oct 2024 · 2 responses

The Ministry of Finance has revised up its projection for expenditure this year, driven by social benefits and goods & services, and in turn sees the deficit widening to -2.9% of GDP. It also sees wider deficits in subsequent years, averaging -2.7% of GDP in 2025-27.

Markets shrug at the Lebanon conflict, but are underestimating the risks
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Sep 2024

Markets have shrugged off the risks from the conflict in Lebanon, including the killing of Hezbollah's leader and a pending ground invasion. Hezbollah may not be as weakened as thought and, although Iran has shown restraint until now, this may be a step too far. Lots of human suffering is ahead. ...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco and ADQ issue debt, Gulf leaders attend UN, Oman has a strong Q2 GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Sep 2024 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil dipped as the market offset returning Libyan and Saudi supply against China’s stimulus plans. * OPEC’s long-term demand forecasts were hiked and it sees 18m b/d demand growth by 2050. * Aramco issued $3bn in sukuk, li...

Implications of the US election for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Sep 2024

This article provides an overview of the state of the race as of today (mainly of interest for those outside the US) and considers how the US administration that governs in 2025-28 might impact the region, economically and politically, and how the Gulf states view Trump and Harris and are prepari...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE fiscal surplus soars, UAE advances trade and AI deals, Saudi-Bahrain aluminum partnership considered, Israel detonates Hezbollah comms devices
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Sep 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Most Gulf states cut interest rates by -50bp, though Qatar did -55 and Kuwait -25. * Brent crude rose by 4% to a three-week high of $74 on the back of broad market optimism. * UK and EU officials visited the GCC to advanc...

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