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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GULF WEEKLY: UAE non-oil growth soars, MGX buys into TikTok, IMF visits Kuwait, Oman-India CEPA signed
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Dec 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude fell below $60 for the first time in nearly five years, despite the US blockade of Venezuela. * China’s foreign minister, visiting Saudi Arabia and the UAE, called for progress on an FTA with the GCC. * Saudi ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman upgraded, rates cut, SABIC quits Duqm project, STC advances in Yemen
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Dec 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The GCC mirrored the US -25bp cut; policy rates now range from 3.5% (Kuwait) to 4.5% (Bahrain). * Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi are pitching in $24bn to Paramount’s bid for Warner Bros. * Saudi non-oil GDP growth of 4...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi budget, PMIs rise, UAE Q3 surplus, Bahrain’s CDS spreads spike
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Dec 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+’s capacity audit will mainly be done by US firm D&M, bar sanctioned countries. * The budgeted Saudi spending cuts are mainly in capex and use of goods and services. * The finance minister reaffirmed an openness to ...

GULF WEEKLY: Dubai’s budget, Acwa Power finances 15GW of renewables, Bahrain downgraded & Kuwait upgraded
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Nov 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Aramco is considering privatization of its oil export terminals and selling some real estate assets. * Acwa Power secured $5.9bn in financing for 15GW of solar and wind projects. * PIF sold a 3.3% stake in Mecca developer...

Opposite directions for Bahrain and Kuwait: S&P downgrades one due to rising debt, but upgrades the other for the same reason
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Nov 2025

S&P took two opposite rating actions on Friday. It downgraded Bahrain to a record low of B, the lowest in the GCC by far. At the same time, it upgraded Kuwait back to its 2021 level of AA-. In 2006, around the time I first visited the Gulf, Bahrain was only one notch below Kuwait (A- vs. A), but ...

GULF WEEKLY: MBS’s art of the deal in DC, UAE airlines order 322 planes, Oman’s deficit narrows, UN authorizes Gaza plan
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Nov 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude dropped to $62, its lowest in a month, amid a renewed US effort for a Ukraine deal. * Stellantis is considering car manufacturing in KSA. FDI licenses increased by 84% y/y in Q3. * MBS’s visit to the US was se...

GULF WEEKLY: Construction powers Dubai GDP surge, Qatar’s deficit widens slightly, Saudi tourism gigaprojects to open soon, Sudani leads fragmented Iraqi election
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Nov 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil is set for a weekly gain as a strike on a Russian export terminal briefly offset supply glut worries. * The IEA reinstated a “business as usual” scenario that would see oil demand growing until 2050. * Saudi Arabia re...

GCC Quarterly Chartbook and Economic Review
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 Nov 2025 · 1 response

This is the second edition of our quarterly chartbook and economic review, which provides a snapshot of the GCC across 18 slides. It starts with an overview of key themes impacting the region in recent months, particularly oil market trends. There are comparative graphs of some of the key economi...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ pauses hikes for Q1, Saudi PMI surges, Microsoft boosts UAE AI investments, Qatar issued $4bn
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Nov 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ announced a small Dec hike followed by a 3-month pause; Brent dipped back to $63. * Aramco beat profit expectations and hiked its gas production target for 2030 by about 13%. * The Saudi PMI surged to 60.2, the seco...

Navigating an oil glut: Fiscal and rating risks for the Gulf—Slide presentation and webinar replay
GULF COUNTRIES · Presentation · 05 Nov 2025

What's next for the GCC in an environment of low oil prices but tight spreads? How will OPEC+ navigate market concerns about an oil supply glut? How are diversification efforts progressing? Can Gulf states keep their deficits and borrowing in check? Which ratings might change? While some politica...

GULF WEEKLY: Most cut rates, Saudi deficit widens but GDP accelerates, Saudi AI and renewables deals signed, UAE budget expands
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Oct 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil eased to $64 as the market waits on OPEC+ and signs of the impact of Russia sanctions. * Gulf states mirrored the Fed’s rate cut, bar Kuwait, which has the lowest rate and a basket peg. * The GCC-UK FTA is expected to...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil rebounds on Russian sanctions, US & Qatar warn EU over LNG, Kuwait portfolio flows spike in Q2
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Oct 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has rebounded to nearly $67 as a result of new US and EU sanctions on Russia. * The IMF hiked its GCC oil GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 4.2% and for non-oil to 3.8%. * Saudi gigaproject awards so far this year have ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil at a 5-year low, Dubai's strong H1 fiscal surplus, Gaza ceasefire holds
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Oct 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil had its worst week since 2020, touching $60 amidst oversupply and demand concerns. * OPEC still sees a balanced market in 2026, whereas the IEA forecasts nearly 4m b/d of oversupply. * The IMF revised up growth foreca...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ hikes by less than expected, US approves AI chips exports, Trump’s Gaza ceasefire begins
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Oct 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ hiked production for November by 137k b/d, less than had been expected by the market. * There was a record $80bn in sukuk issuance in Q3, much of it from the GCC. * Saudi Arabia’s PMI rebounded in September, and its...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi revises up deficit projection, Kuwait and Bahrain issue bonds, Trump announces Gaza plan and pledges to defend Qatar
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Oct 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude dropped by -9% to $64, a four-month low, as another OPEC+ hike is expected. * Saudi Arabia estimates its fiscal deficit will be -5.3% of GDP this year, more than double the budget. * Its fiscal projections see...

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