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A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * There were no US-Iran talks for a second week, and oil surged further as Hormuz remained blocked. * Proposals are still being exchanged via Pakistan, with Iran proposing a mutual blockade lifting. * Four Gulf leaders and ...

UAExit: A deep dive into why the UAE quit OPEC+ and the implications

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Apr 2026

The fundamental reason for the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC/OPEC+ was that it had been frustrated for years with overly onerous production quotas, which required it to bear a substantially larger share of the burden of balancing the oil market than other OPEC+ members. The surprising thing is not...

GULF WEEKLY: Ceasefire extended, but Hormuz closed, and oil rebounds, Moody’s puts Bahrain on a negative outlook, Dubai approves metro extension

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Apr 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil has rebounded as Hormuz remains closed and the US and Iran both seize ships. * A report that it could take up to six months to clear mines added to market concerns. * Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely, and the...

GULF WEEKLY: Peace hopes rise as Iran reopens Hormuz after Lebanon ceasefire, PIF announces 5-year strategy, Kuwait & Abu Dhabi make $4.5bn in private placements

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Apr 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Iran’s foreign minister declared Hormuz reopen in response to the ceasefire in Lebanon. * Brent crude has dropped below $90 for the first time in over five weeks. * OPEC data for March showed production declines as high a...

GULF WEEKLY: Ceasefire holds but without Hormuz transits, Bahrain signs currency swap with UAE, SWFs confirm $24bn for Warner Bros deal

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 10 Apr 2026 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil remains elevated at about $96 as few tankers transit Hormuz, despite the ceasefire. * Vance and Ghalibaf are headed to Pakistan for talks due tomorrow, although they could be delayed. * Attacks on the GCC have largely...

The Iran Ceasefire: Some positive signs but Lebanon remains an immediate obstacle

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Apr 2026

* The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire 90 minutes before Trump's deadline to destroy Iranian civilian infrastructure, brokered by Pakistan. * There have already been ceasefire violations. Iran's Lavan Island refinery was struck, and it used this as justification for strikes against mos...

GULF WEEKLY: Smelters and tankers struck, Fitch puts Qatar and RAK on RWN, Qatar and Dubai stimulus packages

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Apr 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Hopes for peace talks receded, and Trump's statements imply escalation, then unilateral withdrawal. * Attacks on the GCC included Bahrain and UAE aluminum plants, UAE gas, a refinery and power plants in Kuwait and oil tank...

Iran War Days 28–30: Houthis enter the war and Iran strikes aluminum smelters

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 29 Mar 2026

Highlights There was no confirmation of mooted US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan, but growing talk of a ground offensive, as US marines arrived in the region. Yemen’s Houthis entered the war, firing ballistic missiles. Iran destroyed US plans at a Saudi airbase and attacked aluminum smelters in the...

GULF WEEKLY: Iran rejects US plan but talks mooted, Trojena ski resort cancelled, UAE developers face market stress

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 27 Mar 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Trump postponed attacks on power plants until April 6, claiming talks were progressing well. * However, Iran rejected the US plan and is making its own maximalist demands, including reparations. * Iran is proposing tolls ...

Iran War Days 24–25: Trump claims talks with Iran; more tankers transit Hormuz

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 24 Mar 2026 · 1 response

Highlights Trump backed away from plans to bomb power plants and said talks are underway, causing oil to drop by $15. Iranian sources have been more circumspect about talks, but it appears as if Pakistan may host a meeting. In a worrying development, there was a strike on the grounds of the Bushe...

Iran War Days 22–23: Power plants threatened, nuclear sites hit, Iran oil sanctions eased

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 22 Mar 2026

Highlights The war escalated further over the weekend. Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Hormuz is not reopened, and Iran threatened a tit-for-tat response. Natanz nuclear plant was struck again and Iran targeted Israel’s nuclear facility in Dimona for the first time. Iran f...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatari LNG damaged, Brent rises above $110, Saudi Red Sea exports pick up

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Mar 2026

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent rose above $110 after Israel bombed an Iranian gas field and Iran hit the Qatari side of the field. * Qatar says 17% of its LNG will be offline for 3-5 years and its expansion could be delayed by a year. * There was...

Webinar replay - Oil Markets 2026+: Geopolitical Risks and Supply Dynamics Beyond the Glut

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 20 Mar 2026

As geopolitics overshadow supply in Venezuela, Iran, Russia and Kazakhstan, OPEC+ looks towards its second decade amidst an oil glut. What key local developments should market participants focus on to make sense of the oil market outlook in 2026 and beyond? Could Kazakhstan's chronic overprod...

Iran War Day 19: Israel strikes Iran’s gas and Iran retaliates against Qatar and UAE energy sites

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 19 Mar 2026

Highlights Israel struck South Pars, the world’s largest gas field (shared with Qatar). Iran retaliated by firing missiles at Qatar’s Ras Laffan, damaging the Pearl GTL plant. Gas and oil fields in the UAE were also damaged. Brent crude surged to $112. Israel killed Iran’s Intelligence Minister. ...

Iran War Days 17–18: Israel kills Larijani; allies reject Hormuz mission; top US official resigns

GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 17 Mar 2026

Highlights Update for March 16-17. Israel killed Ali Larijani, one of Iran’s de facto leaders. EU foreign ministers and others rejected Trump’s demand for a naval coalition to secure Hormuz. The most senior US counterterrorism official resigned, calling the war unjustified. Iran struck a gas fiel...