Of electrons and tax reforms

COLOMBIA · Report · 16 Aug 2022 · 1 response

The Petro administration submitted its tax reform proposal to Congress in August instead of October, out of sync with the usual timing. This was the first major act of the new government, which speaks volumes. Unsurprisingly, the expected yield is nowhere near the COP 50 trillion (3.5% of GDP, us...

Avoiding the Bermuda Triangle

COLOMBIA · Report · 09 Aug 2022

The three legs of the governability triangle that the new government seems to be working on most intensely are: 1) politics 2) the economy, and 3) the so-called “Total Peace,” plus security force reform. On the political front, there is clear progress, with President Gustavo Petro stating that he...

Between candor and carelessness

COLOMBIA · Report · 08 Jul 2022 · 1 response

How will outgoing president Iván Duque’s last Medium-Term Fiscal Framework affect President-elect Gustavo Petro’s fiscal strategy? First, the National Central Government deficit looks dramatically better under the 2022 MTFF. Not only did the 2021 NCG deficit result come in way below expectations ...

Ocampo: a good pick, but faces colossal tasks

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 30 Jun 2022

President elect Gustavo Petro announced José Antonio Ocampo as his pick for Finance Minister. Ocampo, a Ph.D. from Yale and one of the best-known Colombian economists abroad, has published extensively on macroeconomic theory and policy, international financial issues, economic and social developm...

Webinar Replay: Colombia - After the elections

COLOMBIA · Report · 24 Jun 2022

Get insight into the results of Colombia's presidential elections and what to expect from the Gustavo Petro administration. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar discussing the election results and their ramifications on Col...

Colombia slide presentation: Colombia's new president

COLOMBIA · Report · 21 Jun 2022

Access the pdf fil​e of the presentation​ from the GlobalSource Partners' webinar "Colombia - After the election". Following Gustavo Petro's victory in Colombia's second-round presidential election, GlobalSource Partners' analysts Juan Carlos Echeverry and Andres Escobar discussed the magnitude o...

Our call for next Sunday

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 17 Jun 2022

The race remains neck to neck, which means we will have to wait until Sunday to finally know, at around 8:00 pm EST, who is the next president of Colombia.To give you something to work with and compare, we carried out an exercise simulating scenarios of how voters could move between the first rou...

Off into a crucial poll-free week

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 12 Jun 2022

The next-to-last one before poll silence

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 11 Jun 2022

Trends persist

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 10 Jun 2022

Still too close to call

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 08 Jun 2022 · 1 response

Petro and Hernández neck to neck

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 07 Jun 2022

Methodology: The fan shows the extreme points of the data for each month. The line in the middle of each fan shows the median of the surveys for each month.Note: Since June 1, the polling firm GAD3 (contracted by RCN) reports the results of a daily telephone survey, with a sample of more than 1,0...

Most recent poll data - Colombian presidential election, second round vote

COLOMBIA · Report · 06 Jun 2022

In this report, we present a graph that gathers the results of the polls for the second round of Colombia's presidential election. We will be sending this graph updated as new poll results are published.

Colombia slide presentation: Political pendulum and economic consequences

COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Jun 2022 · 1 response

Access the pdf fil​e of the presentation​ from the GlobalSource Partners' webinar "Colombia: Political pendulum and economic consequences​". ​Following the first round of Colombia's round of presidential elections, which has sent Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández to the run-off, Juan Carlos Ech...

Petro’s only chance might be May 29th

COLOMBIA · Report · 27 May 2022

Here we present the proposals of the three leading presidential candidates: Gustavo Petro, Federico Gutiérrez and Rodolfo Hernández, in comparative tables. In the general view of the economy, Gutiérrez seems market and business friendly, whereas Petro would pursue interventionist policies, and He...