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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Turkey’s new Middle East policy: Precious isolation
TURKEY · Report · 21 Aug 2013

It is astounding how rapidly Erdogan alienates Turkey’s allies in the Middle East. The last two victims of his boundless rage are Egypt and Israel—for a third time. Once a contender for the role of king-maker in the region, aspiring to export its economic and political model, Ankara is increasing...

Headline Inflation Rate Breaches the 6 per cent level
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 21 Aug 2013

According to figures released today by Statistics South Africa, the headline inflation rate for July 2013 recorded 6.3 per cent year-on-year, a tad higher than the market’s expectation of 6.2 per cent. Given that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) had anticipated the headline inflation rate to...

Philippines:Typhoon, monsoon, floods
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Aug 2013

Financial markets remained closed for the third straight day as a public holiday today followed two days of heavy rains and severe flooding in Metro Manila and surrounding provinces.  Storm Maring (international name, Trami) dumped over a month's volume of rains in the south of Manila yesterday s...

Timid Defense of the Lira Continues
TURKEY · Report · 20 Aug 2013

The Monetary Policy Committee raised the O/N lending rate by another 50 bps today, to 7.75%, but left the other two rates -- the weekly policy and O/N borrowing rates -- unchanged (Graph 1). The Committee kept the lending rate for primary dealers at 6.75%, which means that the “normal day rate” h...

Chile: Economic activity expanded 4.1% in second quarter 2013
CHILE · In Brief · 19 Aug 2013

The Chilean economy grew 4.1percent yoy in the second quarter of 2012. Internal demand increased 4.5 percent yoy during the same quarter. This growth was led by private consumption, which grew at a solid 7.0 percent yoy, slightly above the 6.8 percent increase in the first quarter of 2013. The cu...

Election Dynamics Pick Up
CHILE · Report · 19 Aug 2013

It has been an election season full of surprises. First former Mining Minister Laurence withdrew as candidate of the conservative UDI party, to be replaced by veteran former senator and Economy Minister Pablo Longueira. Then in July Longueira unexpectedly withdrew, citing a severe depression, lea...

Conflict Between the Central Bank and Finance Ministry
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Aug 2013

Last Friday the depreciation of the real accelerated, with the exchange rate approaching R$2.40/US$, which is the quotation attained at the height of the crisis in 2008 (Graph 1). Graph 1 Exchange Rate – daily data Winds from the United States contributed to this movement. The probability has bee...

Vehicle Production Hits the Brakes
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 Aug 2013

Workers in the South African vehicle industry embarked today on strikes due to a deadlock in wage negotiations between unions and employers. The performance of the vehicle industry has by and large been resilient during the first half of 2013. Also, vehicle sales grew by 7.5% in the year to July ...

Political Algebra of Energy Reform
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2013

Executive Summary The debate on energy reform is formally underway now that President Enrique Peña Nieto unveiled his energy reform proposal. It proved to be less ambitious than many in the private sector and on the right had hoped for, as the government continues to walk a fine political line th...

How the Reform Proposals Stack Up
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2013

Executive Summary The administration of President Enrique Peña sent the Mexican Congress a proposal to reform two articles of the Constitution regarding the energy industry last week. If approved, those changes would allow for private investment in the exploration, extraction, refining, transport...

Political Insights: Week of August 19
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Aug 2013

On Tuesday Congress will analyze the controversial vetoes by President Dilma Rousseff.These include the additional 10% fine on the Unemployment Guarantee Fund (FGTS) owed by employers to the federal government in cases of unfair dismissal, and the extension of Reintegra.If overturned, they will h...

CNT/MDA shows significant popularity losses for Dilma
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Aug 2013

On July 16, CNT/MDA released a poll on the Dilma Rousseff administration, taken from July 7-10.As with the previous Datafolha research, this poll showed a significant drop in Dilma’s approval rating, which fell from 54.2% to 31.1% (23.1 percentage points) compared to the previous poll, from June....

Domestic Overhaul Needed to Level the Recovery Path
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Aug 2013

This week marks the first anniversary of a period of violence at Lonmin’s platinum mine in Marikana. One year on, instability still plagues the platinum belt. For instance, there have been sporadic bouts of killings in the area that are believed to be related to rivalry between the National Union...

Extreme Measures in Defense of the Rupee
INDIA · Report · 15 Aug 2013

Executive Summary The pain associated with the defense of the rupee is rising rapidly. Fundamental questions about trend GDP growth are now being raised by the actions of the government, which have rolled back economic reforms in key areas. To the extent that the microeconomic foundations of Indi...

Poverty Readings MIxed
MEXICO · Report · 14 Aug 2013

Executive Summary Last week Banco de México (Banxico) released its quarterly assessment of inflation in which it lowered its economic growth estimate for the current year. The forecast interval for 2013 GDP was pared to 2.0%-3.0%, a full percentage lower than the 3.0% to 4.0% range the central ba...

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