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Russian macro: a difficult year ahead
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 18 Mar 2025

According to Rosstat’s publications, after having soared in December 2024, the Russian economy posted comparatively unimpressive results in January, as the output of the five basic sectors grew by 3.1% y-o-y. In December, it grew by 7.5%. This indicator is a monthly measure of combined activities...

The Pension Reform allows both sides to claim victory, mining reactivation is the next step in the reform sequence, and the Supreme Court opens the door to resolving Ricardo Martinelli’s case
PANAMA · Report · 18 Mar 2025

The approval of the reform to the pension law can be considered a victory for all the opposing groups, except for the leftist unions and educators: the retirement age was not increased, the additional employer contribution was staggered, but the individual notional account system was maintained, ...

Lula signs bill for income tax exemption up to R$ 5,000, Senate Committee to review the IBS Management Bill as tax reform advances, and Minister Silveira announces the E30 fuel proposal and energy reform timeline
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Mar 2025

President Lula signs the bill that provides for an income tax (IR) exemption for individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 per month at an event scheduled for this morning at the Planalto Palace. Notably, PLP 108/2024, the bill addressing the IBS Management Committee and regulating tax reform, has final...

Political risks rise; growth forecast trimmed; fiscal deficit cut to 2.5% of GDP; Central Bank bends toward global risks
PERU · Report · 18 Mar 2025

In this forecast report we cover three topics. First, we discuss the political situation, and argue that risks will rise starting on April 12th, when the 2026 electoral campaign begins. During this period, President Dina Boluarte will become vulnerable to impeachment, and we project the odds of i...

Mitigation or laissez-faire?
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Mar 2025

Inflation over the next two years depends on how willing the government will be to use non-reserve foreign assets to mitigate the effects of the recent negative revenue shock stemming from the revocation of General License 41a. In February 2025, the monthly inflation rate rose to 10 percent fr...

Ministerial reform ahead of 2026 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Mar 2025

The government may send Congress a proposal for an income tax exemption for those earning up to R$ 5,000. Congress may finally vote on the 2025 Budget. In the Lower House, the installation of permanent committees is expected. The Central Bank holds its second meeting of the year to decide the ben...

Economics: Continuing deterioration of Pemex financial and operational numbers as the government saddles it with objectives but no solutions
MEXICO · Report · 17 Mar 2025

Pemex experienced further operational and financial deterioration during 2024, according to figures in the company’s latest report, so much so as to put its viability at risk and to become an increasingly onerous burden on the Federal Government. Production of liquid hydrocarbons fell 6.2% (1,75...

The path of disinflation: between desire and reality
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Mar 2025

The Central Bank has signaled its understanding that the economy needs to slow down for inflation to converge to the target. In this report, we attempt to estimate the growth rate that aligns with the Central Bank’s scenario, particularly the path that moves from a positive output gap of 0.7% at ...

Politics: Exposure of extermination center, crematoriums rocks Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 17 Mar 2025

In a country not lacking in political, economic, and social scandals, Mexican society was jolted by news of the discovery of an extermination center in Teuchitlan, Jalisco on March 8. Photos of clandestine crematoriums, graves containing charred human remains, and hundreds of personal objects suc...

The Joint Budget Committee will vote on the report on Wednesday, the government should send a bill exempting individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 from income tax, and the Monetary Policy Committee will meet this week to decide on the interest rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Mar 2025

The Joint Budget Committee will meet on Wednesday (March 19) to vote on Senator Angelo Coronel's (PSD-BA) report on the 2025 Federal Budget. Tomorrow, the government is expected to send Congress a bill exempting individuals earning up to R$ 5,000 from income tax (IR). Currently, only those earnin...

Not much came out of the Two Sessions
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Mar 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: • So far, I expect economic activity in 2025 to look a lot like economic activity in 2024. In 2025 we can expect a reduction in the astonishingly high contribution of net exports to GDP growth in 2024, balanced by an increase in the disappointingly l...

Monetary policy in the shadow of elections. A look at confidence indicators.
POLAND · Report · 17 Mar 2025

The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) has maintained a hawkish stance, emphasizing persistent inflationary pressures driven by rising energy prices, food costs, and services. Its March 12 decision to hold interest rates steady reflects an ongoing belief that inflationary trends remain a concern. The ...

On original and mortal sins
ARGENTINA · Report · 17 Mar 2025

Critics of the Caputo Plan of December 2023 would have preferred that the myriad exchange controls that constitute the so-called "cepo cambiario" (hereinafter, "cepo") had been eliminated at the start of the plan or shortly thereafter. According to them, the failure to do so by the government is ...

Inflation in Israel slows in February below expectations; No imminent rate change expected
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Mar 2025

Inflation continues to ease: February CPI reading remains flat and below forecasts The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February remained unchanged, below our expectations for a 0.2% increase, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3.4%, from 3.8% in January. Core inflation indicators have also...

The mood music and stark realities
TURKEY · Report · 16 Mar 2025

In wone of his most rambling contributions to our Sunday Weekly, the politics author hereby suspends his baseline political scenario of early elections latest by end-March 2026. Alas, he has nothing to replace it with. The first essay explains why numerous connivences to ban Imamoglu will neither...

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