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TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Tajikistan—The Last MohiKhan and His Successor
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Sep 2023 · 1 response

Rustam Rahmon, Chairman of the Upper House of the Tajikistan Parliament (Majlisi Milli) and son of the President of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, paid his first official visit to China in his formal capacity on Aug 21-23. While there were deals signed for a good US$400mn, the focus of Tajikistan wa...

Rate-hold decision expected, at least for now
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 Sep 2023

Rate-hold decision expected next week The main factor for the MPC will be recent inflation moderation. Both headline and core have moderated, including goods and services. Growth indicators point to steady but soft growth, relative to 2022. Private consumption growth remains weak and actually neg...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 Aug 2023

The CBR's decision to hike the key rate to 12% in mid-August immediately moved the ruble from about R/$101 to R/$93. Markets expected a more moderate CBR move (+200-250 bps), and some overshooting was understandable. By the end of the month, the ruble moved to above R/$ 95. A significant increase...

Growth accelerates in Q2, remains unbalanced
TURKEY · Report · 31 Aug 2023

The Turkish economy expanded by 3.8%, y/y, and 3.5%, q/q, in the second quarter of the year. While GDP growth has been broadly stable in the past few quarters in annual terms (i.e., over the same quarter of the previous year; Graph 1), it has been rather volatile in sequential terms (q/q), postin...

The Senate approved the CARF bill, the House approved the payroll tax exemption bill with some changes to the contribution by municipalities, and the STF will resume adjudication of the demarcation of indigenous lands
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Aug 2023

The Senate approved the bill that reinstates the tie-breaking vote in the Administrative Council of Tax Appeals (CARF). There were 34 votes in favor and 27 against. The text will now be sent to President Lula for sanctioning. The deputies approved the extension of the payroll tax exemption for 17...

Kazakhstan seeks to bypass Russia when exporting oil
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 Aug 2023

On August 31 Bloomberg reported that Kazakhstan is buying tankers. Much Kazakh oil is transported by pipeline across Russia to Novorossiysk on the Black Sea and then taken by tanker to market. Kazmunaygaz has already bought two tankers, and each of them has a dead weight tonnage of 8,000 tonnes. ...

An electoral way forward but no date
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Aug 2023

Current political dynamics in Venezuela will hinge on the precise date to be set for presidential elections. The Maduro government insists that it can move the date forward or back at will. As far as the Constitution goes, this is true. But its scope for action does face limits. Elections cann...

Another quarter of impressive growth
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Aug 2023

The Indonesian economy posted another quarter of encouraging growth results in Q2 2023 with GDP at 5.17%, slightly above the 5.03% annual growth pace of Q1 2023. Compared to the previous quarter, the Indonesian economy expanded by 3.86%, following the regular cycle. The fastest sector of growth i...

Biggest ever drone strike in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Aug 2023

On August 29/30 there were drone strikes on six Russian regions. The Russian Defense Ministry said it had destroyed most of the drones. There was no report of any deaths arising from the attacks. Russia said it had sunk four military speed boats on the Black Sea carrying around 50 Ukrainian speci...

UN says 9,511 Ukrainian civilians have been killed in the war
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Aug 2023

On August 30 the UN published the figure. This is the figure of those whom the UN can confirm were killed due to the war and not any other reason and were definitely civilians.  The true death toll is likely to be higher. The UN says that over 12,000 civilians have been wounded in the war. The UN...

Weak Q2 GDP data was nothing extraordinary
HUNGARY · Report · 30 Aug 2023

Preliminary GDP data shows that the recession continued in Q2, and the year-on-year setback increased from previous quarters. Analysts typically found this result surprisingly negative. We do not share this general assessment, as the poor performance of Q2 GDP was properly predicted by output, wa...

The MP on the taxation of exclusive and open funds may be joined with the bill on offshore taxation, the House will vote on payroll tax exemptions today, and the Senate will vote on the CARF bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Aug 2023

The incorporation of the provisional measure (MP) on exclusive funds into the bill that deals with offshore taxation is being discussed in the House, as the provisional measure may expire. The maneuver would join both texts into a single proposal—an important part of the set of measures intended ...

The fiscal deficit deepens in the first half of 2023. The political scenario remains uncertain until the September deadline for alliances
PANAMA · Report · 29 Aug 2023 · 1 response

The official data for the first half of 2023 reveals an increase in the deficit compared to the previous year. However, these figures do not account for expected dividends from the Panama Canal, potential new royalties from the pending mining contract approval, or projected funds from land sales ...

Smooth Guatemalan transition expected; economies bearing up
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Aug 2023

Guatemala’s economy is expected to continue expanding in 2023 and 2024, though at a slower pace than in 2022. There are no signs of stagnation in our review of the forecast we presented in March. Internal political conditions in recent months have been complex, but we don't expect more political ...

Russian industry continues to expand, albeit annual growth decelerates
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Aug 2023

Rosstat reported that industrial output grew y-o-y by 2.6% in 7M23, which was higher than 2.2% in 1H23. At the same time, industrial y-o-y growth decelerated in July to 4.9% (from 6.7% and 5.8% in May and June). Of course, there were strong base effects several months ago - amid a low 2Q22 base. ...

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