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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Exports: macro vs micro
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Apr 2025

The WTO projects a 0.2 % drop in global trade volume in 2025, and the decline could be larger if reciprocal tariffs materialize—prompting downward revisions to Brazil’s export outlook. In addition, a slowing world economy is likely to push many commodity prices lower, as seen in recent weeks. The...

Past Liberation Day: a few changes to growth and inflation forecasts
HUNGARY · Forecast · 22 Apr 2025

The world has changed quite a bit since we published our previous forecast in January, because of Mr. Trump’s appearance on the scene, and especially his latest aggressive trade policy measures. The latter are pushing the global economy towards lower growth but also lower energy prices, both extr...

The opposition submitted the urgent status request for the Amnesty Bill, Pedro Lucas will meet with his party regarding his ministerial appointment, and the STF will decide on the PGR charges against Bolsonaro
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Apr 2025

The President of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), will meet with party leaders to discuss the Amnesty Bill. Last week, the opposition secured the support of 264 votes for the urgent status request to be brought to the floor. Federal Deputy and União Brasil leader in the House, Pedro Lucas...

More mixed data in March
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Apr 2025

Special points to highlight in this report: - The property sector in top-tier cities may be close to bottoming out, although this is still far from the case in the rest of China. - Growth in March came in much stronger than expected, and drove first-quarter growth also above expectations,...

Bahceli scenarios, CBRT reserves
TURKEY · Report · 20 Apr 2025 · 1 response

Political upheaval in Turkey is in full swing, with strong indications that President Erdogan has not given up on his objective of appointing trustees to Istanbul Municipality and CHP. The surprise is MHP leader Bahceli’s public objections to Erdogan’s plans. In the past, such public rebukes by B...

Mineral deal memorandum: agreement to talk about talks
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Apr 2025

Ukrainian authorities have announced the online signing of a Memorandum of Intent for a potential mineral deal with the U.S. The document is provided below. Apparently, officials needed something to show at least nominal progress—and this memorandum of intent, essentially a declaration to keep ta...

GULF WEEKLY: US-Iran nuclear talks begin, Oman and Europe plan hydrogen corridor, Bahraini parliament calls for tariffs on US
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Apr 2025 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil recovered to a two-week high of $67, and OPEC+ announced revised compensation cuts. * OPEC and the IEA both revised down both oil demand and supply forecasts due to US policies. * US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman seemed ...

Requiem for the fiscal framework
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Apr 2025

The federal government has sent the Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO) for 2026 to Congress, outlining the broad contours of next year’s budget, as well as projecting public accounts through the middle of the next administration, in 2029.

Growth decline deepens
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 17 Apr 2025

February growth data confirms that the Dominican economy has entered a low-growth period. In February, estimated growth reached just 0.7% compared with February 2024. This adds to January's growth of only 2.2%, bringing cumulative growth for January and February to 1.5%. Once again the sharp decl...

NBU holds prime rate unchanged at 15.5% amid eased FX pressure
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Apr 2025

The NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15.5% at today’s meeting, contrary to our expectations. Despite inflation accelerating in March to +1.5% m/m and +14.6% y/y, the NBU noted it sees some signs of easing, though it acknowledged that inflationary expectations remain high. Most likely, t...

MPC does the right thing, difficult road ahead
TURKEY · Report · 17 Apr 2025

At its meeting today, the MPC/CBRT raised the policy rate by 350 basis points to 46%, compared to the consensus expectations of no change. While not ruling out a hike, we had also thought that a pause was the more likely outcome. Along with the policy rate, the MPC increased the O/N lending rate ...

The Petrobras Board of Directors will discuss Unigel, the urgent status of the Amnesty Bill should be put to a vote after the long holiday, and the Special Committee on the income tax bill should be installed next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Apr 2025

Today, a meeting of the Petrobras Board of Directors is scheduled to decide on the situation of Unigel, a company that leased two fertilizer plants (Fafens) from the state-owned enterprise in 2019—one in Sergipe and another in Bahia—but ceased production in 2023. Next week, after the long holiday...

Bi-weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Apr 2025

Apr 3 National pipeline company: The volume of Kazakh oil transportation to Germany via the Druzhba oil pipeline in March reached 150K tons and increased by 50% compared to February. Ministry of Trade: US tariffs will affect less than 5% of Kazakhstan exports to the US. KMG: The heads of KMG and ...

Armenia: Opposition takes Gyumri in a potentially key milestone in Armenian politics
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 17 Apr 2025

As I anticipated, the Council of Elders of the second-largest city in Armenia was able yesterday to elect Vardan Ghukasyan (the leading candidate from the Communist party) as the new mayor of Gyumri. This is an important event in Armenian politics for at least three key reasons. First, it demonst...

The government wants its allies to withdraw their signatures for the urgent status of the amnesty bill, the PLDO sets the minimum wage at R$1,630 next year, and the Petrobras AGO is expected to reappoint its Board of Directors Chair
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Apr 2025

The fact that the opposition managed to gather enough signatures to bring the urgent status request for the Amnesty Bill to a vote in the House plenary has caused friction between the government and its allied base. This is because 146 members from allied parties signed the request. The governmen...

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